Empirical Car Pricing Data and Analysis

Some of you know that I’ve searched for (and found) a lease this month. (I take delivery on Monday!) I tried to turn this search process into a small experiment. I wasn’t able to conclude much, but I did collect some data. Maybe it will be useful or interesting to someone. At the very least, there are some pretty pictures :rofl:

If you are new to lease hacking, you might benefit from seeing how varied dealers can be in their pricing. There is a reason why we tell you to talk to multiple dealers. It really is important!

Anyway, here is the notebook. And here is the spreadsheet with the summarized data. I’ve almost surely forgotten something to mention something important, so let me know what I missed.

Aside: I’m not sure Tech Lounge is the right place for this. But my thinking was that it has data and analysis, and I couldn’t figure out a better place to put it. It’s obviously also related to my Volvo API thread.


This is very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

Thanks. Would love to see others document their searches a bit. I think newcomers are misled because they see people sharing these great deals without sharing how much sweat, blood and tears went into the search.


Thank you for sharing!

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Awesome work, thanks for sharing. I have tried putting some science behind lease hacking for years and it is way too tough. Everything is so variable. Worth the try either way, loved the read.

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You should see some folks on the respective car forums when the only dealer they contacted won’t honor leasehackr deals…


I’ll add that it depends on what type of deal and just plain dang luck.

I`d say unicorns, not many dealerships will agree to on first contact, nor are they going to give you without showing at least some proof that this is out there in the market (typically requiring a buyers order or dealer quote). I know industry folks hate this, but again unicorns are a different beast and require the uncomfortable.

Reasonable deals I’d assume are doable on first contact since again you are leaving something on the table for them. Minimal time, mini deal, easy number on the board.

If another dealer will agree to match a unicorn deal, is it still a unicorn deal? :thinking:

I know some trusted hackrs fundamentally disagree with your premise that more contact will get you a better deal. (I can’t remember who off the top of my head.) But they say that the only thing that a unicorn deal has going for a dealer is that it could be easy and fast.

I guess it depends on what you mean by a “reasonable deal”. Dealer pricing is all over the place. Many dealers were not willing to go below invoice, even to match another deal.

If the dealer offers a me a unicorn from the start, why would I go to another dealer to match it? I’d sign and get that bottle of blue label and 5* every survey to the dealer rep who assisted me and enjoy!

However have you had an experience where on first contact, with all the research done been able to achieve a true “unicorn”?

You were the one talking about matching a unicorn deal by providing a deal sheet. I was pointing out that doesn’t really make sense.

I consider my last lease (from 2017) to be a unicorn deal. We agreed on price very quickly.

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