Economy prediction... What's yours?

all good, though. maybe your kids will be some of the lucky ones to be “the armies of millions of people- well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little- little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America. It’s going to be automated and great Americans- the tradecraft of America, is going to fix them, is going to work on them. They’re going to be mechanics. There’s going to be HVAC specialists. There’s going to be electricians, the tradecraft of America. Our high school educated Americans- the core to our workforce, is going to have the greatest resurgence of jobs in the history of America to work on these high-tech factories, which are all coming to America. That’s what’s going to build our next generation of America.”

Let’s hope.

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To be fair, I don’t think Jim was directing his post at you personally or directly. Just speaking generally of the world nowadays, which I agree with him in that regard

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Not my kids but I know quite a few people who walked through desert like conditions to come to this country that would love to screw in screws in an air conditioned warehouse.
As of 2022 the census date said that 8.9% of the population had less than a high school diploma, 27.9% had a high school diploma as the highest form of education. Aside from the massive gap we are seeing and will see in the trades, we have a good portion of the population either working menial jobs or not working at all. We either need to revamp the educational system and get more people to higher levels of education and skills, or bring higher paying career oriented jobs that can be learned through onsite training.
If China is the shiny country on the hill, and they have massive production why cant we bring that back? Rebuttal will be AI and robots, but China faces the same outcome they will just transition the workforce to accommodate for the change.

I wasn’t directing this to you at all. Just in general. People aren’t willing to sacrifice. They want everything and I’m blaming social media for that bc all they see is peoples exotic trips, new homes and cars etc. no one puts in the comments thanks mom and dad for the 200k down payment on our new home! :rofl:

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The other thing nobody sees on social media is that a lot of that content is financed by credit card debt and other loan-type mechanisms. At some point, the bill comes due.

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I don’t fall for some of these so-called social media influencers who rent million dollar mansions while claiming they paid cash for it from their crpyto gains. These same folks are also renting luxury cars and jewerly to present a certain online persona.

There have been stories where some of these same folks have faked been on a private jet. I found this company advertising private jet studios for rent (Aircraft sets & studio mockups | Aviation Filming).

I am sure there are more out there…lol

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FYI, 40% of business can’t find qualified applicants for open positions currently in the US. China did not steal US companies, companies went there to pay less and boost profits. Now of course there are other lowing paying countries attracting manufacturing. Countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh are emerging countries with an over supply of uneducated workers, that are able and somewhat willing to sew clothing all day, for example. Highly industrialized countries build highly technical and complex products, ie: EU and the US. It’s that part of Econ 101 where they teach about specialization and competitive advantage.

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Please share your source.

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Grifting has been the American way post covid, and it’s sad to watch.

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Yes I find that suspect. Theres many claims that businesses just leave up employment ads they’re not actually hiring for.

Theyre called “ghost jobs”

Social media has pretty much destroyed the youths work ethic. Not all, but many. I’m sure every generation has called the next lazy but it’s certainly troubling. And they’re justified due to the amount of debt they have to take on to go to college. Also schools are complicit bc they push college instead of trades to kids that shouldn’t be in college in the first place.

But $20/hr to work unskilled jobs isn’t bad if you have a roommate or live at home. Easy to do that and go to community college to figure out what you’re interested in. Going straight to a 80k a year school and not having direction is a bad move unless your parents are footing the bill. In that case I bet $350k in an index fund would do them better. Or helping them start a small business.

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Grampa Simpson Grandpa GIF by MOODMAN

All jokes aside, i echo this. As a first generation immigrant, i know firsthand that the generation after mine has nowhere near the drive of my generation. They were handed everything on a silver platter and babied and coddled. They’re unable to compete.

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Article in the Wall Street Journal. Here is the quote from the article. Also, Ive been self employed all my life and ever since covid, it’s been more difficult to find quality candidates than ever in my 30 years in business.
“Forty percent of small business owners in March reported job openings they couldn’t fill, with larger shares in construction (56%), transportation (53%) and manufacturing (47%), according to last week’s National Federation of Independent Business survey. The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey of businesses tells a similar story. There are twice as many job openings in manufacturing than in the mid-2000s as a share of employment. Save for during the pandemic, America’s worker shortage is the worst in 50 years.”

Every older generation wants to believe those that follow don’t work as hard. Its an easily provable fallacy. Facts show that upward mobility is way down and COL is way up compared to 20+ years ago. As such, ALL people need to work that much harder to make ends meet today and young people are out there in fast food jobs, blue collar trade programs, signing up for less frilly and more practical college degrees (accounting, medicine, engineering, etc) despite overwhelming massive debt incurred.

Whats changed dramatically is the nature of the work. Small brick and mortar, manufacturing, blue collar etc have largely been replaced by corporate tech jobs. As a result, US economy is largely driven by a robust services and digital sector.

Most young people are scrappy and trying exponentially hard to find a way to survive, given the challenges of modern times. Many are naturally more tech savvy and putting in 12+ hour days to build digital businesses. Many more are now looking at skipping college and we’re seeing a trend back to blue collar trades. We’ve also seen many actually open B&M shops after starting small home-based businesses during lockdown, somewhat reviving retail.

Fact is, we’re in a massive transitionary period not dissimilar to entering a new industrial age in the past. Those caught mid-transition tend to struggle most in finding a direction and relevance. You’re either over 65 and sitting on accumulated wealth from the good ol days or you’re over 30 and wondering how the heck the next 10 years are going to look for you given all these rapid tech developments emerging along the sociopolitical chaos of our time.

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The wealth transfer between the boomer generation and their kids will be unprecedented. Even kids from pure middle class families will inherit healthy six figure/low seven figure after stock/home transfers. It will pour lighter fluid on the current laziness of that generation.

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Are they though? When you go to fast food places or restaurants are most polite and friendly or resentful? Same with any worker making “minimum wage” aka $15 an hour at most places. They really just don’t appreciate much in general bc they flick through instagram and see people their age living it up. This always happened through history but only now do you have access to the lives of the upper crust. It all started with that damn Robin Leach :rofl:

Sure some younger people are doing very well with evommerce etc but they could do well prob anywhere bc they have the drive you need to succeed. I’m sure they put in 70-80 hour weeks building it and once successful set up more. But that’s a crowded space and not easy to break into

As for COL. is it really that much higher for the youth? No. It def is if you want children but that’s another topic. They want name brand clothes, they want to eat out. $1500 new phones every year. These are things that were a luxury. I’m sorry but if a 20 yr old can’t live in $20/hr they have a spending problem. You can rent a room with friends for 500-600 and spend $500 on groceries a month. Can also take public trans in most areas but most are too proud to

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I don’t know what industry you are in, but I can tell you that if you were looking to hire tech workers, there are a lot of qualified unemployed engineers, product managers, marketers, sales engineers, support folks, and other tech professionals looking for work. I’ve been in tech for nearly 20 years and this is one of the worse job markets I have ever seen. Covid was not as bad.

Appreciate the clarification. Is this the article in question? https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-good-man-for-u-s-manufacturing-is-hard-to-find-young-males-worker-shortage-labor-30255cce

Anytime I go to a Chick-fil-A, I am always greeted by happy and professional workers. I can’t say the same for other fast food restaurants.

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Is it really going to be that much? I keep reading that most Americans are very heavily in debt and have little saved for retirement. So maybe they have some home equity, but end of life care is astronomical. I know my parents are going to be pretty much tapped out, but even if they weren’t, I would have to split whatever they can pass on with my siblings too. I don’t think anyone is getting rich from a middle class inheritance.

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I get where you’re coming from, but I generally disagree. Sure, in some parts of the country you can get by on public and find housing that cheap with roommates. But I also doubt you’re finding stable 40 hr/week unskilled and undegreed jobs at 20/hr. My sister worked at a grocery store for $24/hr, but they never scheduled her for 40 hrs and eventually got let go for “downsizing” after 6 months. Planning any sort of life for yourself gets hard when your income has low stability. I know Chick Fil A and In’n’out will get you those kind of numbers, but everyone knows that and getting a job there is tough.

The other side is cheap housing availability. I know people that live that cheap, but it’s because they got their rent controlled apartment 15+ years ago and never left. That same apartment on open market is $2000 today.

I usually struggle with these types of discussions in terms of clarity. What is actually being referred to with some of the terms, like middle class? Is that simply referring to say household income and lifestyle or actual net worth? True wealth is net worth and not income, which many often confuse. So when we’re throwing statements around about the classes..just makes me wonder lol. Not targeting or arguing your points.

I definitely agree with what you’re saying. The end of life care will eat up everything plus the crumbs, especially if things aren’t planned WELL in advance. And I don’t believe most will be inheriting much; there are a ton of broke people out there and I feel it’s getting worse.

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I am a first generation immigrant as well and I am going to assume that I am younger than you and fall into the generation that came after you. My values were always aligned with “work hard” concepts and that’s just how I was raised - and today I can say I am very happy with my career, profession and how much money I make and will make.

I can tell you that a lot of people my age and in my “generation” do in fact lack drive. With that said I do not know whether I would attribute it to being handed things on silver platters or being babied, but rather a shift in societal norms and expectations. Though there are those who sit around and do nothing also - yes.

Everything I say now is of course based on “feeling” and observation, so let me know if I am off here, but its almost like sweat and hard work has become the “stupid” thing to do for the majority. Most guys I know are chasing some form of “get rich quick” schemes (crypto, streaming, options trading, etc. etc. etc.) because the returns on a dedicated, standard career path just do not seem to be worth it financially in their eyes and take too long. What social media did is show a bunch of dudes in their 20s videos and pictures of other dudes in their 20s swimming in money off of some nonsense (or living on purely debt) and living it up on levels that no “job” can provide the funds for. Working a salary is borderline a slur, having a regular job is demeaning almost if you live in LA, NY or Miami etc. This also trickles into a lot of the social media “masculinity” influencers who basically preach that being a decent man in a regular career path or craft is “beta” - though all that and the associated manufactured concepts of masculinity are a whole different topic.

Naturally a lot of these guys (not all) fail in their attempts to reach these riches and the alternative (a regular job or pure hard work that leads to success but requires patience and time) is seen as surrender. By the time they realize it, they’re usually up there in age and have made a good amount of mistakes in life.

Now that I think about it - I think for a lot of young people, everything in life has become about quick dopamine hits with zero capacity for attention or patience and this equally applies to their career and financial expectations. A good chunk (not all of course) don’t have the patience to watch a 5 minute video let alone commit to a hard academic degree or build a business for years.

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