Economy prediction... What's yours?

Apparently for some it is difficult to understand what is not difficult to understand.

I don’t think you would get into Harvard.

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We’re 500 billion of their economy and the largest trading partner. Outpacing the next four combined.
It was an over generalization but they lose us they take a major hit.

I don’t think I would either they didn’t have a good soccer team and I got a free ride to a Div 1 school.

Jim - from today’s WSJ. Canadians bailing left and right:

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/canadians-sell-us-vacation-homes-propertie-3c3676e8?st=qt92MJ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Been happening for months. Many have sold because changes in immigration policies have not allowed many to re-enter. Others because weakening looney and the massive profits selling in Florida brings.

If this was commonplace congress would significantly outperform the benchmark index after adjusting for time of sale. They don’t.

What chart are you even looking at? Ignoring the covid spike and dip the trend is clearly maintained from 2019. Are you really trying to deny what’s right in front of your face?

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We were arguing unemployment vs employment numbers, And how they flatten off and never return to the growth rate pre Covid.

It appears you’re trying to correlate personal income to un/employment however much of this growth is also inflation, stimulus injection and extensions on unemployment benefits. I’m failing to see how this relates and frankly would argue you’re proving my point that we injected funds, personal income is up and employment was dropping during Biden’s admin. Companies froze positions and had layoffs due to impending recession.

3 posts were merged into an existing topic: Off-Topic Landfill 6

Sounds like more of an economic decision with a little politics sprinkled on top. Anything that adds to inventory here is ok with me. They know presidents change every 4 years. They likely wanted to cash out anyway. South Florida qol has prob gone down substantially for people that have lived here for 5+ years. Heavy traffic high prices etc.

I would be doing the same thing if I was retired and on a fixed budget. It’s a big world and plenty of nice places to stay in the winter months to get out of canda/usa. Their govt is having the same issues as ours with high debt and divided public

I’d be interested in input on this topic as well

Is this a bad thing ? Would say we have net too much foreign ownership of homes in the US and I would absolutely enact policies that penalize/mega tax folks who want to park money in US RE in this manner. We have an affordability problem.

Idk I’m not really going to shed a tear because people are selling US vacation homes and etc. adios

I’m more of a free market small govt guy but until we have enough inventory for citizens, if congress is going to enact laws, they should at least protect domestic buyers first. I’m more against the large corporations buying up property over regular foreigners however. It’s a complex situation for sure. Seems like a lot of hedge funds are starting to cash out now though from the data I’m seeing. The combo of high prices and potential recession coupled with high overhead, it’s def a smart move to take the money out and put it elsewhere imo. At current levels almost nothing makes sense to buy to me unless banking on more inflation in the housing market. Not sure thatspossible though when you look at the average income vs average home price in this country. It’s simply unaffordable and the math doesn’t work. Easier ways to make 6-7% on your cash.

We need to be incentivizing more building here that’s for sure

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so then…you’re NOT a maga, given that govt spending has actually increased this year vs last year and we are now in a de facto trade embargo with the 2nd largest economy in the world?

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I was under the impression that DOGE had promised to save US taxpayers $2T instead of $150B.

Elon Musk DOGE goal: Elon Musk slashes DOGE savings goal from $2 trillion to $150 billion, raising eyebrows over inflated claims and controversial cuts - The Economic Times

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At least we know pumping markets to Valhalla is back on the table again. Trying to save money is no fun…

The mental gymnastics they go through to justify the things they’re actually categorically against is pretty much THE key MAGA trait.

That was just the goal wasn’t it? Like FSD every year since 2015 or whenver it was and a million Robo-taxis by 2021, he’s fallen a little short.

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$150B/$2T *100% = Only 7.5% of projected “savings”.

Maybe they should be focusing on the defense budget - I know it is taboo to cut troop spending and such, but what else can they cut?

Have to cut defense, medicare and SS if serious about deficit. Otherwise you just are unserious

Not to mention that the $150B in “fraud/savings” wasn’t even completely verifiable, last time I checked a week or two ago. Elon just talks out of his ass. Just like how he mentioned in an interview that the national parks department got $1B for an online poll… even though their entire budget was $3B for 2024 and no one has been able to find any evidence of this $1B for conducting an online poll.

And don’t forget Trump promising on the record to end the Russia/Ukraine conflict before he even stepped into the Oval Office :joy::joy::joy:.

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I’ve been critical of every administrations spending, trump included. The wealthy don’t have to take salaries so increasing taxes on them likely won’t work. Will just hurt high wage earners that are more middle class than upper class with current inflation. The Kamala plan would just kick the can down the road so I’m more open to alternatives and ok with seeing how things play out. Rather deal with the pain now then pass it to our children