Early Exit '24 X3 into '26 X5 - Dealer Buyout vs Non Standard Grounding?

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HI Hackers, Looking for some clarity on a NY deal. Currently in a 2024 X3 with ~9 months left. Planning to move into an $81k MSRP 2026 X5 around August (hunting for that 12%+ pre-incentive discount as the '27s hit) around that time. I am eligible for both Loyalty and Corporate Fleet.

I want to do a Dealer Buyout / Trade-In rather than a standard lease grounding or customer lease payoff. I’m targeting a “Clean Break-Even.”

I heard that when a BMW dealer buys the car directly from BMWFS, they do not have to pay sales taxes so you would save on taxes?. Based on NY rates, this should make their payoff significantly lower than my personal payoff (which includes sales tax).

Question:

  1. Is “Breaking Even” still a realistic target for a dealer to swallow if I’m signing on a high-MSRP X5 the same day if they save the sales tax on the dealer purchase from BMWFS?

Who knows, that’s going to entirely depend on what your lease payoff is at that time versus the trade in value of the X3.

And the dealer isn’t going to swallow anything without it coming from somewhere else. If they inflate your trade in value by $1k to negate any negative equity then that’s just $1k less discount you’re not getting on the new truck.

We always recommend separating the trade from the new lease to get an accurate sense of where the outgoing lease is. If it’s $5k upside down the dealer isn’t eating that. Not enough detail here to judge whether this is feasible.

You’re correct a dealer buying your car doesn’t pay sales tax, but IIRC you already paid the full sales tax at inception, so there shouldn’t be tax in your 1st party lease buyout quote. Did you get a payoff from bmwfs that includes/breaks-out sales tax?

I’ve seen 26 X5s in the Marketplace at that discount and slightly more. I doubt new/non-loaner 27s will 12%+ off in 4 months but the BMW people will know better.

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Why wait? transfer the lease now. Use transfer section here on LH or go to Swapalease.com for bigger and less demanding audience :sweat_smile:. If your payment is at LH brokers level you will find new home for current X3 pretty fast,
Please remember that you canNOT transfer the lease in the last 6 months of the lease.
Good luck.

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You’ll be picking from what no one else wanted by that point. :thinking:

I have to figure out how to deal with dealership if they ask do you have a BMW. I do not think I am $5k upside down but will check the link you provided. I got the customer payoff on the BMWFS when I logged in. I did not see the payoff with sales tax broken off. It only shows the payoff if I wanted to buy the X3.I have no interest in the 2027 but want the 2026. You have seen larger discounts in marketplace? I will check it.

I have been chatting with a reddit user who posted he was was in the same position as me with an 24 X3 and contacted 4 BMW dealers and was about $1-4k negative based on the dealers valued his X3. Eventually he got a BMW dealer to do a clean trade of his X3 and he said he got I think 12% off the X5 and posted a picture of it. I was chatting to see how he did it. From his post, “yes, negative equity. looked up my X3s trade value. KBB/edmunds had it between 33k-36k. my payoff from BMWFS was just over 36K. so just had to find a dealer that would offer close to my payoff and negotiate from there.”

Most of the X3s I’ve seen lately were negative. I’ve been advertising 13% off X5s (and was doing 14% off at month-end last month) which are aged and 12% off otherwise. Orders and inventory are going to start trickling away though. I wouldn’t wait four months. If you want out now, post it for lease transfer.

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If inventory will be limited in four months and unable to swap, can you just check the value of your car and trade it in now and not wait, then work on another lease? Assuming you get break even…..

Note that KBB and Edmunds aren’t buyers at these prices, those are just their estimates. If you want to know what a used car is actually worth, solicit offers from actual buyers, who will hand you a check for the price they quote you.

List of places to sell or value your car online - Wiki - Leasehackr Forum

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