As many are, I’m stuck in what seems to be the non-progressing G80 M3 order line. I was planning to lease one of these for MSRP, drive for 6-9mo, and swap out of it if desired.
I am really tempted to throw in the towel and purchase something outright, but I started running calcs on total cost of ownership and was shocked at what I came up with.
All you hear about lately are lackluster leases, but at MSRP on a $80k sticker G80, I’m coming up with ~$1,350 sign and drive. TCO: $47,790 with disposition fee, or $15,765 per year.
On the other hand, a purchase I’ve been spitballing is a CPO '17 Macan GTS. There are a few I have my eye on for ~$50k…add in tax/fees and purchase quickly becomes ~$55k. Factor 2 years of driving and an estimated end of term value of $30k, and you’re looking at a potential $25k hit. TCO: $25,000 (estimate, not incl maintenance), or $12,500 per year.
So:
$15,765/yr for a brand new G80 M3 you don’t need to worry an ounce about.
vs
$12,500/yr for a 5yr old Macan GTS you own (maintenance, potential diminished value - if unlucky, CPO vs factory warranty etc.).
Am I missing something here? I realize this is a 2yr vs 3yr ownership debate which is why I broke cost out yearly but I’m pretty shocked. This is my first time looking through this lens so I figured it would be a good idea to bring up for discussion here.
Perhaps I’m factoring end of term value on the Macan too low? Thoughts?
72 month balloon loan thru AmeriCU on the G80 with CT sales tax comes to about $1132/mo with nothing down. Could be beneficial to go that route and lower some of the cost of the G80? If you wanted to justify it on a cost basis
Yea I saw a lot of people on the G80 forums moving towards balloon, but I think if keeping for short term a lease (granted you don’t get fleeced) would be an easy exit and provide the best downside protection. No? Thinking out loud.
Some of the leases on SAL though…man. How do people justify nearly $2k/mo for these things…
I would only buy a 17’ Macan if it is CPO because then it should be up to date on service and newer tires/brakes. If you buy a non-CPO, you can spend $10k in 6 months on service (PDK fluid, drive belt, brake fluid, spark plugs, etc) and new brakes/tires. You should also see which maintenance was done because if it had a minor maintenance performed (oil change) and a major is next, you are spending $4k in a year timeframe. I would also suggest looking at a 2018. They don’t seem to be that much more and if you find one with Porsche Connect, it has CarPlay.
But not really shocked about the cost. IIRC, my yearly cost on a F82 M4 ($86k MSRP) was about $10k-$12k (granted Chicago double lease taxes didn’t help) and I had an employee lease.
Personally, I would go with the M3 since it is a new car with maintenance included, but as you know getting one at MSRP is going to be difficult and my bet is that by the time you do, you won’t be able to just swap in/out of it within a year without being upside down. Why not look at a new Macan S? It has the old GTS engine and the RV is great for 39 months. I bet it won’t be all that different from the M3 if it isn’t optioned too crazy. Inventory is hard, but it isn’t difficult to get one for MSRP (buy rate is another issue entirely).
Average build at MSRP and maxed out MF for 39/10k. Almost exact same cost as the M3: CALCULATOR | LEASEHACKR
M3 fan here so I’m biased. You annual costs are close, but the new MSRPs are what, $10-15k apart? So not much. The M3 is new while the Macan is 6 years old. Lots of farts. If it was between an M3 and a GT4 or 911 it might be a tougher question.
The bigger question is, on a lease, can you get an M3 at MSRP AND buy rate. Also, residuals vary a bit on the M3 leases depending if it’s base, comp, comp xdrive
I know you are trying to be conservative, but $30k for a Macan GTS is REALLY low. I’d say at least 35 and that is still being conservative. 2015 S models with high miles (~50k) are over 30 right now.
This seems like an unfair comparison. What’s the difference between a well-maintained private party Macan and a CPO? They’re going to have the same maintenance needs and budget going forward.
If anything the CPO buyer who doesn’t do their diligence is more likely to be getting expensive surprises.
Well most important would be the additional 2 year warranty on a car well outside of the new car warranty period. If OP can find a private party Macan that is up to date on service, then they can roll the dice if the cost makes sense. But most used ones on dealer lots will just have an oil change and nothing else otherwise.
