I’m looking for a sanity check on a multi-car strategy in the Phoenix market. I’m currently cross-shopping local dealers against the Midwest, where Raptors are reportedly going for $3k–$5k under MSRP.
The Scenario:
The Purchase: 2026 F-150 Raptor ($80k MSRP).
The Trade: 2020 Explorer XLT (Fully paid off). It’s 95k miles but high spec: premium wheels, middle-row captain’s chairs, heated rear seats, etc. (everything but the large nav screen).
The Problem: 2023 Mach-E lease with a massive mileage overage (42k miles on a 30k limit). Turn-in is this August, and I’m looking at a $3,000–$4,000 penalty.
My Goal: I want to execute a deal locally at MSRP, but I want the dealer to “cover” the Mach-E overage as a condition of the sale.
The Catch: I am adamant about not dipping into my Explorer equity to pay for the Mach-E. I want 100% of the Explorer’s trade value applied to the Raptor principal to take advantage of the Arizona sales tax credit on the trade difference.
My Logic: If Midwest dealers have enough margin to sell a Raptor at $5k under, a Phoenix dealer at MSRP has roughly $5k of “buffer.” I want them to take a portion of that buffer to cut a check for the Mach-E grounding/overage, leaving my Explorer equity untouched. In exchange, they get a quick Raptor sale and two pieces of used inventory (including a very sellable high-spec Explorer).
Questions for the Hackrs:
Is it realistic to negotiate a “lease overage buyout” as a line item separate from the trade-in valuation?
Does the Mach-E’s current market value make this a “poison pill” for the dealer, or is the Raptor margin/Explorer equity enough to make them bite?
Should I push for a direct dealer buyout of the Mach-E to avoid the grounding fees/disposition entirely?
Appreciate any insight on how to keep these three buckets (Raptor Price, Explorer Equity, Mach-E Penalty) from being “muddled” by the dealership.
It should be easy to get more than trade value + your sales tax rate if you sell private party.
I don’t know the mechanics of early Ford terminations, but I’m assuming you’ve already determined it’s possible and have an idea what it will cost.
Absent a manufacturer pull-ahead incentive, anything the dealer does to “cover” your costs will be subtracted from their discount. So it might look innocuous on paper, but the money is coming out of your pocket.
I would first figure out how to optimize each of the three sub transactions before trying to merge them all into one.
Not really. It doesn’t matter where is comes from as long as you get the deal you want. Who cares how the sausage is made Don’t get caught up in 1 line item
I would get quotes from Carvana, Carmax, etc on the mustang and exploder. Might be better than the tax advantage
BTW, I doubt a new car dealer wants a 100K mile exploder. They will wholesale it
I should’ve added into the main body. I’m not planning to do an early termination. I plan to buy the raptor at the time my lease ends on the mach e. I’ll just have to pay a few thousand due to mileage overage.
The only way for the F dealer to intervene on the lease overage is to buy-out the car before it’s grounded. You can get the payoff and check MMR to compare but I suspect that is a bigger hole to fill than midwest Raptor discounts.
OP will have disposition waived on the MachE for the Raptor purchase. In the past F also extended the W&T waiver when leasing/buying new at disposition (+$750 iirc) - if so may be able to apply to mile overage.
I would separate the Explorer trade and get all the purchase quotes, sell it to the highest bidder / use that with the dealer when trading for the Raptor.
Well they’re not routinely selling at MSRP. There’s been one raptor at MSRP for about 4-5 months now that no one has been buying. I do know Midwest dealers are selling under MSRP, so weighing the option buying from there or give a local dealer a sell in exchange for the concept mentioned. Again, was only checking validity of the concept, not arguing that it should work. Just not sure if anyone has attempted this sort of tri-exchange concept.
I see where you’re coming from but here are a few things to keep in mind.
If you find an aged unit that may help a little bit, but if a dealer has a bunch of similar vehicles one is bound to sit for a while… doesn’t mean it’s distressed merchandise.
Raptors are practically the official vehicle of the East Vally so I doubt they’re having a hard time selling them.
Your trade is a wholesale piece and will be worth a lot more selling to Carvana than a dealership. It may be super clean but it’s still a six year old explorer with 100k miles
Ford dealerships are notoriously difficult to work with in AZ.
I’m not trying to be a jerk but you asked for a reality check and I’m trying to save you from wasting a lot of time on something that will not work.
Not a sales manager, so dunno. I found quite a few dealers offering $2-3k off MSRP, with one dealer offering $5k off. The dealer offering $5k off also offered $14.5k for the explorer trade in. A local dealer nearby me wants to stick to MSRP on the Raptor, but offered $15.5k on the Explorer to “sweeten” the deal or close the gap.
So to me, I see it as at least a $5k margin. So if the dealer wants two used cars and get a sale at sticker, maybe I can negotiate the whole dipping into that margin on the raptor to offset the mileage overage of the mach e.
Not being a jerk at all, it’s all good info. Yea, they are definitely a pain to work with. I know Raptors in Phoenix were still selling over MSRP for a while, while mid west dealers were doing MSRP easily. Now, I’m seeing dealers in Phoenix dropped to MSRP, with a lot of dealers sitting on Raptors for months with no one buying. Like Bell Ford, had one in their lot that was over MSRP and didn’t sell for like 8 months until it finally sold at MSRP a couple weeks ago. And they’re still sitting on a large inventory of raptors.
Thought maybe I can negotiate the whole MSRP portion and save a buck on the mach-e lease at turn in. I was chatting with the sales manager at Bell Ford 2 weeks ago while the explorer was in maintenance, and they mentioned they wanted to buy the explorer cause it’s something that sells well used, even at 92k miles. Looking at comparisons, looks like it’s still popular of a vehicle to buy, especially when the record is extremely clean like mine is.
So yea, was just a thought. May end up going with the mid west dealers since I can just grab this month rather than waiting 2 more months for the mach e lease to end.
