Deal Check - 2021 BMW X4 M40i SF

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2021 BMW X4 M40i white

MSRP:68745

Selling price: 61254

Monthly payment: 745

Drive-off amount: 2823 + 5250(MSD)

Months:36

Annual Mileage:12K

MF: 0.00133

Residual:55%

Incentives: 2500

MSD: 7 (5250)

Region:Bay Area

Drive off includes the first month payment. Although I read a lot of posts and 101, I am still not sure whether it is a good deal considering the current situation. I hope someone could give me some advice. Thanks in advance~

2

It is practically impossible for us to tell you what a “good” monthly payment is for your specific lease as lease programs are highly dependent on region, personal qualifications, tax rates, etc.

We always recommend the following method before you ever contact a dealership. If you do all of the work up front, you’ll have a stress free dealer experience and set yourself for success.

  1. Read Leasing 101 (Blog | LEASEHACKR) to understand how to calculate a lease payment and the variables. Monthly payment is an output, not an input!!
  2. Pick a specific vehicle that you want to target
  3. Gather the current MF, RV and incentives from Edmunds forums for your zip code
  4. Research the LH marketplace and other deals that have been made recently on your vehicle - what was their pre-incentive discount? How did their lease terms differ?
  5. Plug your numbers into the LH calculator (CALCULATOR | LEASEHACKR), and use a pre-incentive discount similar to what you have seen
  6. Create a target deal, this is what you’re trying to negotiate to. You can try different terms, selling price discount, etc. and see how your monthly payment is affected. It is also possible that different trims of your vehicle may have different MF and RV (i.e. this is very common with GM), so make sure that you look into that. Come up with a set of inputs that give you the output that you want - your desired monthly payment.

With a target price determined, you now have a deal to pursue and compare dealer offers against. More importantly, you have a solid foundation to work from.

3

Thanks! I already read through all those posts, those are very helpful.

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Now that you’ve read through the posts, work through the rest of the steps. It’ll help answer your question here for your personal lease situation.

5

You can back calculate the MF used with incentive information from Edmunds. Post the calc link so it’s easier for others to evaluate.

6

just got the MF, 0.00133

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You combined incentives into the discount, lease cash is 750. Do you qualify for loyalty?

Without loyalty it looks solid for one of these, like a 10-11% with base MF equivalent deal…these just don’t lease that well.

Here’s the correct calc.

I’m also assuming this is a new unit, not used?

8

Thanks!, rebates includes 750 loyalty and 750 lease cash and 1000 new grads. Dealer put this discount into the selling price. 6805 dealer discount + 2500 rebates.
and it’s a new unit.

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More like $5400 dealer discount after you adjust for the marked up mf.

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dealer discount is 6805, after 5600 MSD, the mf drops to 0.00105 I think.

11

And your mf is fully marked up, increasing your cost by $1400. When you account for that, the discount is really only $5400

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With all those incentives it may be ok for the time, but it’s not a great deal. Not sure how inventory is on these things. It’s effectively a 7.8% pre incentives discount.

Do you need the car right now? Can you wait until inventory builds back up?

13

How much difference between buying it now and buying it later? I try to sell my used car, its value increase like 2000~3000, so if the difference is within 3000, I think it’s fine since I get it from my used car.

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Thanks~ what’s a good MF for normal market?

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Has nothing to do with the “normal” market. The dealer is marking up the MF right now. Buy rate on this currently is .00093. BMWFS allows dealers to mark up a maximum of .0004 if they want; in this case they’re doing that. There are other dealers you can go to that will not mark up the mf.

Every .0002 of mark up is roughly equivalent to 1% of MSRP cost increase, so you’re at 9.8% pre-incentive with the discount, but because of the .0004 mark up, you subtract 2% (or $1400 given the $70k MSRP) from the discount to normalize.

That’s why you’ll always see people here asking, when evaluating deals, what the pre-incentive discount at buy rate is.

16

Hey dude, if I could lower the mf to 0.00113 or even 0.00093, is this a good deal?

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What is your target pre-incentive discount for one of these based on research of comp deals and broker listings?

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I would say 10%. just bring MF down to 0.00113.

19

So 9% then?

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Idk whether I can push it deeper. The brokers in forum only provide 6% off for x4 m40i though. Do you think it’s a solid deal? thanks!