Thanks all for who been chiming in on this post. I’ll follow up on the PMs and suggestions.
Update that I did some additonal research on old deals and really got a sense of how people got to where they were. Side note - I really wish I would have been shopping for this car with Costco worked on v60s. Also really looked at what what people were doing as far as offers on loaners.
After that research and some other advice from folks on here I shoot an email to the dealer. I’m not looking for a unicorn but probably pretty close to one so lets see if I even hear back. If I don’t it wasn’t for lack of trying. I want the car but since I don’t even really need a new car for 4 months I’m not going to do something I don’t want to do. That said they want to make a deal I’m there!
In any event everyone on here has been great. I really appreciate all the help.
With residuals being what they are for 2020’s I’ve accepted the fact that I’m not getting into a CC this month. At least at what I want to be paying. Appreciate the brokers PMs and people trying to make it happen.
I think from reading old posts I already know the answer (no one has a crystal ball!) but here I am asking anyway… is there any indication that there will be better programs/incentives in the next couple months? I won’t qualify for loyalty so really can just hope for is Costco or for lease cash to get a lot better (it’s currently $1k for 2021’s). Were the CCs leasing so well in June due to excess inventory or something? 2021 inventory seems pretty limited.
I’m in no rush. My current lease is cash positive and goes through March, and I think I can extend it a couple more months if needed. More just wondering if I should totally give up on the v60 wagon dream and just go try and take advantage of the xc60 programs for this months before they expire.
Nobody knows what future programs will be, anyone who says otherwise is guessing.
The Costco program ends Jan 4th, the past few years it has only run May 1-June 30, this second program was a rare exception, no idea how that might affect 2021 (will Costco have a Volvo program at all? Probably. In May/June? Maybe not).
The wagons leased so well last summer because:
Costco trunk money
Low money factor
Higher residuals
It’s December of 2020: Volvo doesn’t want a 2020 back in Dec of 2023 when it’s 4 years old, so the residual reflects that. And I suspect the MF is higher than it was over the summer.
At some point, I expect the 2020 lease programs will disappear and be finance only.
When will the 2021s lease well? The residuals are good now, but they’ll gradually decline. The MF may or may not change, and likewise with incentives. Volvo typically sells ~9000 cars a month in the US, and if inventory is low they don’t need to incentivize them for lease or sale.
2k Costco, massive amounts of rebates on CC in mid Atlantic and NYC area, 54% 36/10k residual, and a MF of basically 0 with MSDs.
I was able to get a loaner at 17% + residual adjustment and be in the 2s with very little das before my 9% tax. Just took it on a Costco run today, awesome price for what it is, and it only weighs like 400 pounds less than a xc90, it’s built like a tank.
Maybe the other thought for @icompleteme to consider:
Wagons generally don’t lease well to start, and a payment that starts with a 4xx isn’t terrible for a moderately equipped v60. If you have a price anchoring bias to the unicorns of last summer, you’re doing it wrong.
An incredible deal, that was only available if you were in the right place at the right time. Some of us were too early (not late), trying to find a V60 during the summer of 2019:
That car you are sweating the price of today, I almost spent $720 a month to drive one, and shipped it across the US. Because there was only one.
If this is the car your heart wants, I say get it. If you are sweating this because your budget can’t afford it, then find something you like nearly as much (Outback? Mazda 3? Your call there) and start driving that until your budget supports it.
I don’t think its price anchoring bias (great term) but rather I was approaching this all wrong. I hung out here just long enough to search “loaner” “discount” and then see the unicorns like Hershey’s and I got myself thinking “well its end of year so they will want to sell it” and maybe I could make it up what other got this summer with a better MSRP discount. When in reality I should have taken more time to really understand residual value and that no amount of negotiating is going to turn the residual back to what it was this summer. And incentives really do matter.
So I’m not going to eliminate it because of a $4xx payment just trying to recalibrate. If anything I think I should start thinking about 2021’s that might be around and give up on the 2020 (I hope they all find great homes!).
And then the other problem is I do love the xc60s and part of me keeps thinking if I should see if I can find one this this month while there is still generous lease cash and Costco. I wanted to go full Dad with the wagon but I think I can get pretty close to the same effect with the xc60.
The salesman asked me where I worked and I made a comment in jest that I work at the same place as the owner. Is that what you are talking about? It literally was a joke. It took me a second to even try and think what you meant since it was said in passing.
If that even went into any of their thinking of how to deal with me, and then also got conveyed out to people outside of their dealership, then I’m extra glad that I didn’t do a deal there regardless of what price they gave me.
The first part is exactly what price anchoring bias is: because it used to cost X, even though circumstances have changed, it should still cost (roughly) X
This “better deals at the end of the month/year” is mostly a fallacy that should have died before COVID, and just isn’t the case anymore. Whether or not that Volvo dealer sells you that v60cc, they probably had one of their best Decembers ever, and they’ve had a strong Q2 and Q4 because of Costco. They don’t need to take a bullet on that V60CC just because it’s the end of the year, which by the way is pretty busy at most dealers by all reports.
You came around at the end to the right conclusion: it’s always the confluence of all the variables that make the deal bad/good/unicorn:
pre-incentive discount
incentives
residual
MF
term (months/mileage)
You’re stretch is that the dealer will dig so deep on the first, it will make up for what isn’t favorable in the others (term aside). Highly unlikely.
Now if a broker / dealer are desperate to move a particular V60CC loaner, you don’t have to search and play the numbers. And by all means, you can try and hit all of them and see if someone bites, but the chances that one dealer is going to move on one car to offset all the things working against you, isn’t a good bet.
And that is probably why they did not take you seriously, as you said before. Besides, it came out only after I talked to them, tying to get you a better deal.
I agree it’s not worth fixating or assuming what something “should still cost” but it’s definitely rational to pass on something when the value proposition is no longer there
