Stop and put down your pencil. What is the current value of your car (vroom, carvana, …) and what is your current payoff? Now that you know about this site you have no excuse!!
Alright to put it in perspective I leased a 2019 Accord Sport 2.0T back December 2019.
I traded in a 2017 Accord LX which i was 12k miles over the 36k limit. I had $1,500 negative equity in which I rolled over. My payment was $398 with zero due. Keep in mind this California. I’m sure you can do slightly better. A tiny more wiggle room.
Your payoff will most likely include sales tax, which Carvana will not have to pay. So the dealer payoff could be a thousand or so less then your payoff, which will actually put you into positive equity on the vehicle. Not 100% sure how this works in NY but I believe it to be true.
According to Manheim Market Report, based on the year, model, trim, mileage, location (Northeast) and assuming the condition of your car is very good (4/5), your car has an adjusted wholesale market value of ~$17,650. (Note: Dealers look to get cars at MMR (and below), in order to sell at retail. Your car would retail for > $20,300).
Looking at cars recently sold at Manheim auctions in the North East in the past 30 days with similar mileage and a 4/5 condition, dealers bought similar cars for ~$18,000.
So having said the above and given your payoff amount is $15,930.33 to HFS (Honda Financial Services is the leasing company), as Chris mentioned the dealer is effectively paying you $664 less than your payoff quote. The dealer has to pay HFS $15,930. So, by effectively purchasing your car for ~$15,300 the dealer is getting your car for close to $2,500 less than at Manheim auction.
The “sales and negotiation pitch” to you is that the dealer is rolling only half your excess miles into your new lease and paying you $300 more than Vroom, which sounds reasonable and is more for optics: i.e. a deal that looks good.
Continue shopping and see what Carvana, Carmax and other dealers have to offer and give yourself more options.
Unfortunately, I don’t have more insights on the 2020 Accord Lease and hopefully other forum members can chime in.