Can you guess the future of lease? :)

We leased a 2023 EQS 450+ SUV for 3Yr/36K miles and our residual is $60K.

We like it so far, but looking at the used EQS market we are wondering if at the end of 3 years, we can get to keep this car for <$40/30K - any thoughts on the depreciation ?

Also does the leasing bank/Mercedes focus on taking the car back or try to negotiate for sale?

Based off San Jose, CA

Merc is not one to negotiate AFAIK.

I’ll be interested to know this as well. If I’m in your position, I’ll surrender the car, eat the disposition fee and try to buy it when it hit the used parking lot. I doubt it will sell fast nor it will sell more than the residual.

Not the same car.

You can either buy it out at its current residual (not advisable given resale value) or buy another used EQS.

When does the lease end?

Can they buy it back if they chose to surrender the car at the end of the lease and it goes to used lot? That will be 2 different things. No?

I will let more knowledgeable folks address this.

My vague memory is folks have said that BMW tracks who purchases the car after it is returned. I don’t know if I’ve ever read that MB does the same.

So they do allow it, no?

Merc should.

BMW probably doesn’t due to the lower dealer buyback value

BMW will not allow a dealer to sell a turned in lease for lower than residual value to the original lessee. They can sell it to anyone else for under RV, but not the original lessee.

I don’t know if MB does the same.

it end in 2027 Feb

Typically, a dealer grounds the car on behalf of the bank, in this case MBFS. That dealer then has first right of refusal to buy the car from MBFS; otherwise it goes to auction.

As a business model going back to the 90s, this has proven less costly than employing a small army of FT employers to dynamically follow pricing and negotiate with customers. That’s a huge amount of overhead considering there might be 100k+ lease returns every year.

You’ve got a long way more to go. See how things pan out over the next couple of years; business practices may change and evolve. But the current general practice is that lessors do not sell back to lessees at below RV.

Now whether you can find a dealer to ground the lease and sell it back to you… that’s another story. There’ll most likely be a fee on top of that, but it’s a possible option.

Even during the peak of Covid, no captive entertained selling lease returns back to the lessee at below RV. A very very small percentage of lessees received unsolicited offers to buyout at below RV, but I don’t believe anyone figured out the pattern or what drove those exceptions. They were not for high-end vehicles either, mostly high volume/low MSRP cars.

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