I leased a 2021 530E with about 4K miles and, after 3 years of remote work, I have a whopping 16K miles on it and lease end is May 1. Usually I worry about driving over the miles but this has just been a weird last few years and it’s a coin toss whether I am driving more in next few years.
My options:
Buy the damn thing for $36K.
-Caravan buyout was only $33K so not great.
-I don’t see too many CPO for the same car. I see one with 8K miles and better options for about $42K. And one with 40K miles and similar options for $32K.
-Never held a BMW beyond 3 years but the mileage is so low I feel like that fear may not be as important.
Extend lease for up to 2 months to get me to end of quarter and gamble to find a 2023 530E that’s still on the lots or perhaps a 2024 iX etc. Cost is about $530/month. Or maybe one of those fancy EQS deals.
Grab a loaner iX for fewer miles/year and similar monthly to my current lease. This means grabbing it 1.5 months before my current lease end so I’d have to figure out what to do with current car ebefore then.
No knowledge but just some thoughts on my part… Do you like your current car? Do you very much want a new (and diff) car? Any thoughts on what a 6-yr old, low mileage 530e is worth?
Is there a big difference between the 2021 and 2023 530e? You should ask yourself whether you want to drive the same car for another 3 years.
Have you looked into current finance rates? I would not recommend buying a used car right now, unless you’re paying cash (or are able to get a very low rate) and plan to keep it for a while.
Pros are my current car gets the job done and is nice with full tinting on all windows, and I feel like 16K miles is really low mileage. I do hear that after year 4 it’s not pleasant taking care of these cars but it’s such low mileage I wonder if that applies to me. So really I’m not entirely sure if I’m fooling myself into thinking it’s financially wise.
I would pay 36 for the car plus tax so cash flow out is around 40k for a 3 year old low mileage hybrid. I probably am guessing it costs about 1k a year in maintenance. So in 3 year I’ll have paid 43k to own it. And if I had to guess it depreciates to 20k despite the low miles. So back of the envelope I think I’ll have spent 23k to own this car.
Please poke holes though if you think this math is off. If it’s right maybe it’s not so wise to keep it given I can get 3 year leases for about that same price.
I would do straight cash to buy. But I think my total cost (see above) to own and get out of the car for another 3 years is about 23k.
The 2023 and 2021 models are almost identical for 530E. It would just allow me to be in a lower mileage car with probably better color combo.
The iX would be a new experience…fully ev, suv (which I kinda like but also feels less fun than a sedan).
I just don’t know if the deals will still be around if I don’t jump on them now before May 1 (or before June 30 if I extend). Worried I’m more excited about getting a deal lol
I honestly think it’ll be cheaper and less stressful to lease a new vehicle (same model or otherwise) over buying out your used one. Unless you’re paying cash… but even if you are, consider the opportunity cost.
If you asked me 3 months ago, I’d have probably said buy it out. But we are seeing a beautiful restoration of lease hacking right now and unless you’re very confident in your ability to calculate residual value 3 years from now (especially considering the immediate negative equity you’ll have upon buyout), I’d just shop a new lease.
The question then is are the iX and EQS deals so good I should jump now and pay an extra 1.5 months in extra lease payments or roll the dice and see what’s around on May 1 or June 30…
I’d be weary of MY23 support dropping in May. I’d for sure close in April just so you don’t miss out. I wouldn’t expect any good MY24 hacks to surface until later in the year. You’ll be kicking yourself if you miss the boat on MY23s and end up having to lease a MY24 because of unlucky timing
I am also a sedan guy and I have always driven an ICE car. However, I am considering switching to an EV in the next couple of months. Given the $7500 EV rebate being offered by most manufacturers, on top of additional leasing incentives, I am hoping to get into a new car at a reasonable price.
Have you seeing some of the pricing on the iX from brokers in the Marketplace? Are you focusing on just loaners or would you consider new?
I would recommend doing a couple of things:
Start researching the vehicles and pricing. Hint: iX and EQS. To get a good deal on an EQS or any other EQ model, you will either need to be an AMEX card holder, or be a Penfed member - This month, I believe there is $11k in rebates (450 trim) / $12k in rebates (580 trim) for AMEX/Penfed on 2023 EQS models.
Based on your completed research, start reaching out to dealers near you with a reasonable offer. For example, do not ask for 20% off MSRP on a new iX.
You have time on your hands. However, it is going to take some work on your part to score a good deal. Inventory is also not abundant on certain models. So not all dealers will be willing to play ball. Ask me how I know.
I’ve already done all that hence the numbers above.
An ix new is about 11% off new if a good deal with base mf. Depending on the trim, with at least convenience and parking you’re looking at 700-800 if zero down. That to me is not worth it for that car. A loaner gets it more into the range where it makes sense to me. The eqs makes more sense at that price.
Edited to add: I think that around the fall the i5 will be a good deal if you can wait that long. If I remember you leased around time I did and got an Audi right?
My (completely uneducated) guess about resale value 3 yrs from now was the same. So I agree that it may not really make sense financially to buy out.
If the iX and/or EQS deals are good now, I’d probably just get one now (b/c of concern about MY 2023 support being dropped, as @dukez mentioned). Otherwise, maybe extend 2 mos and see if you can get lucky in the latter half of the year?
