I’m not really sure what point you’re trying to make other than providing another source that says the giant 2nd wave that’s going to kill us all is far from a certainty.
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The point is stated in page 7. In the first two scenarios whether a big second wave or peaks and valleys there will be a need for mitigation (partial or complete lockdown) later this year. So plan accordingly.
To be honest, while it’s definitely not a certainty, it’s probably much more than a “maybe.”
The UK has already introduced the idea of rolling lockdowns. We shall see how far that idea spreads (but I assume it will be a reality for many industrialized nations).
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I’m not an anti-science head in the sand folk but it’s become clear we don’t know exactly how this will play out due to the number of variables involved. The big summer question is the weather effect and behavior. If weather doesn’t produce a significant reduction in R we are going to see significant increases in cases as compliance with social distancing wanes, states reopen and quarentine fatigue sets in. If that happens, we could see enough cases during the summer that by the time winter hits the percentage of the population with immunity (if no post recovery immunity than Lord we are screwed) means we don’t have a real second wave.
Next time around I doubt you’ll see as many lock downs, the numbers are really skewed in the tri state area. Governor’s will not pull the trigger so fast, especially in red states, that’s my best guess.
I’m focused on the Deaths/1M column far right
@EC99 We will need to have an infection rate of 70% at minimum to get herd immunity unless we come up with a vaccine( not gonna happen this year).
The social/economic fatigue have already outweighed the fear of the virus in many places around the country. part of that because we didn’t see surge capacity in hospitals like everyone anticipated. however, If infection rates start increasing significantly during the summer, the pendulum will swing back to fear as photos and videos start making their way to media outlets. We probably will not see a one size fit all lockdown style like we had initially. Geography and politics will play a role in shaping the collective psych of each community. states that have big cities with condensed population will feel the pain more and go back to the lockdown mode while other states or communities that prioritize freedom over safety will resist and stay open. Like you said too many variables to project how this will end. The only thing we can do is enjoy the summer, live a healthy lifestyle to optimize the immune system, and be prepared mentally and emotionally just in case.
I agree with you. I was actually contemplating moving to a red state during fall and winter, but I will need to figure out a way to hide my California license plate 
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I wasn’t talking about herd immunity or total recovery by winter. Rather my comment indicates we may have a slow burn versus a second wave. Say the virus isn’t slowed down as much by summer as we hope. With reopening we end up seeing 100k+ new cases a day including ongoing outbreaks along already hard hit East Coast cities. By November you could see many places where 20% or 30% of the population has already gotten Covid. At those numbers, the spread (aka R) is slowed because a significant minority of the people an infected carrier interacts with are already immune.
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The slow burn scenario is the most optimistic scenario out of the three mentioned in the article. It’s similar to the approach that Sweden took from the beginning. But if you look at their data they barely achieved 20% herd immunity and they are pretty far from their 60% target. But you are correct that will probably not be enough to trigger a second wave and another draconian lockdown like the one we had before.
That’s debatable and dependent on who you ask. Without trying to turn this into a political argument, the president has stated he won’t shut anything down during a second wave.
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He doesn’t have the authority to anyways and it’s relegated to the states
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He also says a lot of things and does something different.
Now, while he may not have authority in this regard, he has influential power. This would also apply to anyone in office, not necessarily him.
So, it’s going to depend on who is in office, when it happens, and what each state government has to say before assuming there will be a 2nd wave of lockdowns, partial or full. There are plenty that will boycott it, that’s for sure, and plenty others who will comply, just like this time.
While some believe this virus will roar back in the fall, akin to the annual flu, I just read an article that some scientists in Singapore (I believe, don’t quote me there) believe the virus will just fizzle out in the next few months. Nobody seems to have a good grasp on this yet.
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I suspect that in the US, you’ll see a lot more resistance to a 2nd round of shutdowns, unless it’s very isolated.
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And depending if you’re a half empty or half full glass person, they were overly cautious and killed the economy or they did a great job and saved us all!
I’m pesimic about government and authority in general, I take anything they say with a grain of salt, as I get older I’m harder to convince. Nobody can afford a round two of lock downs.
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All Great points. The recommendations of the medical team might not carry the same weight on the president’s decision going forward as it will be easy to discredit their inaccurate projection models. States coffers are also pretty empty and the president will most likely use the federal purse to influence governor’s decisions to stay open as well.
I sure hope the virus will just disappear on it’s own but I’m not an optimist.
As George Bernard Shaw said
The optimist invents the aeroplane , the pessimist the parachute.”
My understanding is that the weather may not play as big a role as anticipated (I only read the headline and cannot remember the source; I didn’t read the article itself to see the reasoning for this).
LA (which has a very temperate winter) has most of the CA’s diagnosed cases and fatalities, although just over 50% of those deaths occurred in an institutional setting (where weather presumably doesn’t play much of a role). And our numbers for diagnosed cases (and fatalities, to a large extent) have not really dropped, so we have yet to really get out of the first wave.
At any rate, I agree that different areas will need to create solutions tailored to their own individual circumstances… And just hope that people don’t travel much…
This. I actually am relatively optimistic, but, when you’re dealing w/ population-level stuff, it is always prudent to be prepared for the worst.
If the Rona doesn’t get you, having no job, no insurance and/or being depressed and broke will!
In many ways government authority and its effect on economic activity has been overstated in this crisis. Look at Brazil. Depending on your political views its leader is either a better more powerful version or Trump or an anti-science mad man. Bolsonaro chose to ignore coronavirus far longer than we did. Where is Brazil now… economy in shambles, medial system overwhelmed and a bunch of people dying. Trump even instituted a travel ban to/from Brazil that really hurts his ally in Brasillia.
Domestically, as long as people keep dying opening up gyms and hair salons isn’t gonna restart the economy.
This is a valid point and the harms have to be weighed. But we can’t do that because weighing the harm involves looking at science/facts and doing our best to guess how many people will die, get sick and possible collapse of the medical system versus the untold suffering of a year long economic shutdown. It’s a simple cost benefit analysis. But if you are unwilling to calculate the cost it becomes hard to do the analysis.
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IMO, weather seems to play a factor, although I’m not a scientist either. Just logically looking at it, South/Latin America is spiking now, which is their fall. While heat and humidity may help tamp down things in the northern hemisphere in the short term, it’s somewhat of an ominous sign that things are spiking in the southern hemisphere now, which is their fall, and moving toward winter.
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I like this one too, people are driving places instead of flying. What’s more dangerous? Flying during the Rona or driving? When people don’t feel like they have control, logic is out the window
Sure the chances of death by Rona for the US average is 302 out of 1,000,000, but you have to catch it first. Road trip somewhere with an overnight stop and you better not be staying a the Rona Inn or stop at the Gas’n’Rona
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Funny, I literally had this convo with my wife today. My parents want to come from Boston to visit grandson. They thought it would be better to drive. Wife and I both want them to fly since they are getting to the point where an eight hour highway drive is bad idea. It also changes things that they already had confirmed cornovirus. Mom had mild symptoms while dad had us really scared for about 72 hours. So they likely have immunity.
Edit for @sledbeagle2 - this was in early April. They are better and tested negative in early May.
I am hoping for a bigly second wave because I heard the second wave is when those covid special half off leases are going to come through!!
Plus I have want to be out and party during summer and then Pretend to be scared of rona in fall so I can collect unemployment.
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