Bmw x5 phev or Audi etron late in 2021

How to get the absolute top deal or what is possible on the above choices?

Question 1:
One thing i dont understand is in the last month people have been getting the federal $7500 on the Audi etron; although its MSRP is above the $60,000 price? Thought that above that price it was not eligible? Or if the dealers back end invoice on a volume buy is they still get it?

Question 2:
What % of MSRP can one get off on a year old vehicle still on the lot. For example if in September to December the 2022 models are out; what can you get off MSRP on the 2021s? I know Kelly Blue Book buying they are deprecated 20%. Just what is top deal one can get off when negotiating the lease?

Question 3:
If there was a date or month; or yearly sale that had the highest probability to target in the fall when would the experienced target for success? Is there a month where it is common they try to dump inventory to not carry the last year? Where BMW or Audi do lower MF rates to get things out the door or have massive liquidity incentives or volume incentives?

Question 4:
Have a 2019 VW eGolf on lease that will run out of miles about the end of the year. But still has a year duration. Got it at such a deal that the buyout will have about $5000 in equity wholesale at the end of the year. Adding this as a trade in on the deal what should i watch out for to ensure i get most of the value out of the trade in.

Would rather have the BMW x5 PHEV than the Audi but need the HOV lane ability in Cali. As well need the $7500 federal incentive to make this work.

The federal tax credits aren’t tied to msrp. Some of the CA credits are.

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No one has a crystal ball on what’s going to happen in the future. There’s tight inventory right now for 2021 eTrons that will probably get worse with the semiconductor chip shortages.

Remember RV fall the later you lease it so there are times that the next year model may be similar in monthly since high RV and perhaps incentives.

So you can’t really plan for the future in the way you are trying to do. (Sort of like picking and selling stocks).


One of my businesses is trading derivatives. Order flow or volume flow is how one trades at a professional or institutional level in the index/stock market.

Will look at monthly sales to time the probabilities of volume movement sales.

Still a couple questions un actioned if anyone else wants to opt

I have owned my X5 45e since November and am really happy with it. I get 30 to 40 miles of EV range depending on weather so still on my second tank of gas at 5k miles. Straight six is awesome too when it kicks in so really a no compromise car. In my case buying it worked out way better than the leasing option though today the dealer discounts seem to be nowhere near what I was able to negotiate for a custom order:

Leasing as Cali is only providing HOV authorization decals for 3 years. As well BMW is known for having the shortest duration of product lifecycle in the industry. Used to be most manufacturers kept vechicles new for 7 years with a mid cycle refresh. Most are down to six; which is where BMW was historically now they usually are 5 years with the industry demanding more “new” shiny things faster.

This is one of the major factors why BMW has the highest lease % in the industry.

Looked up on there are only a couple less than 5 x5 hybrids with adaptive cruise in the state right now. Is this what is to be expected? The model only exists for regulation compliance; not mass production/distribution.

Not sure if the BMW PHEVs are just compliance cars when you can buy them in all 50 states and they are the cheapest engine option if one qualifies for the full tax credit. My guess is that the battery shortage and the European demand might be limiting the supply here…

Good fair thought…

Anyone able to provide insight what is the maximum % off MSRP one can get on a BMW lease when the car is new but a year old? What is realistic, at 2.2 standard deviations below the mean; or a 98% low price in a normal distribution chart.

What are the complex arguments and constraints the dealers will attempt to provide to not comply with to prevent the aforementioned scenario from playing out.

What internal belief or realization will have them internally capitulate based upon their own paradigm or business requirements/norm?

Basicly one of my original questions just layed out a little more verbose and actionable.

As much as I would love for this data to be publicly available, it is not

If you look through the shared deals section the month for etrons was March. Some of the best etrons were around 11% off MSRP pre-incentive, but now it seems like we’re at around 8-9% due to depleted inventory and slightly worse incentives.

Complex arguments? none. Constraints? inventory.

I think you’re over complicating things. Look through share a deal, see what’s been accomplished by other LHs, and then send an offer. You’ll get a yes or no, unless Aristotle is the GM.

It doesn’t work that way. There isn’t a magic number across the market. Hell, there isn’t a magic number across brands or at a specific dealer.

There isn’t a magic time of year that gives better prices. You may be able to get a better dealer discount if you’re leasing right before lease support ends on a vehicle, however, there is no reason to believe that the incentives/lease programs will also be good then.

Generally, right when a new model comes out isn’t a good time to lease, but beyond that, it’s a cap shoot based on all sorts of internal variables that the public doesn’t have access to.

There are several complications here. VW has different buy out values than your personal buy out amount, so if you’re looking at your current buy out value to establish that you have equity, you may be very disappointed. Since you’re in California, you will maximize your value by purchasing the vehicle out yourself and then reselling within 10 days so as to eliminate your tax liability. There is a specific process that must be followed to do this and you’re reliant on CA dmv being timely.

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Thank you. Simply with incentives what is the best % people are getting on year old new cars leased. There are many factors anyway people can tell their success stories. Lets just figure out a window.

In life I always figure out a target of what is realistic. Then navigate the details. Takes work. But historically usually get amazing deals on every major event in life.

Including incentives? Anywhere from over msrp to 25%+ discount.

There isn’t a number that is applicable across the board. I appreciate what you think you’re trying to establish, but you’ve lost sight of the forest through the trees.

If you want to set a pre-incentive discount target, look in the shared deals and market place listings here in the month or two leading up to when you’re ready to sign.

By targeting one of the few X5 45e that are left, your making an assumption that it will have the options you are looking for, and still have lease support from BMW FS. If it has been on a dealer lot for a year, it’s not b/c people haven’t made offers, it’s because the dealer has chosen to not accept those offers.

Manufacturers look at the previous months numbers coupled with production rate, capacity, and inventory And market conditions to then determine whether to adjust MF, RV, and / or incentives. Yes, you can look back historically and get an idea most years however this year I would take your Excel spreadsheet analysis and throw it out the window. Covid, stimulus checks, and now semi conductor shortages all factor in to these decisions where in previous years they have not.

As stated above, look at the shared deals section and do a search, see what people have achieved.

Should have known the direction this thread would take.

Let’s see:

  1. Too smart to search
  2. Too smart to listen to anyone suggesting a search
  3. Wants to reinvent the wheel beginning with how many standard deviations from the mean
  4. Entitled enough to keep demanding to be spoonfed.
  5. Did I mention you need to search?