Baseline for Leasing

Before s*** hit the fan on leasing what did BMW X5 leased for? This is the thought running in my head. I might get hit hard in the replies, but I am no pro and just want to know how (much) bad the market is right now?
I am talking about 2020 precovid era what did a BMW X5 lease in the northeast (cos that’s where it rains deals) - ballpark $70000 MSRP towards the end of year. What should be the discount percentage and (the tough one) approx. payment for a 24/10 lease?

I do understand the lease payment can be tough to approximate but didn’t want to limit the thoughts in the query. Discount percentage should be helpful too

Search in “Share Deals” and “Marketplace”.

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24 hasn’t been worth it on BMW’s for a long time

Why does it matter what deals were in 2020? You plan to use that as a baseline for a deal today?

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I’ll have to dig it up, but not only were the rates at least 100 basis points lower but the residual was also 5 points higher.

Rebate is within 1K of what it was.

In short, you’d need a 20% discount today to match a 9% off deal then. Happy shopping!

It might be crazy to answer Yes to this. The thing is there is far more speculation on leasing vs owning due to the market. Now I just want to know should I hold off for the market to get more smoother or the deals are pretty much near there cos the stocks are getting lined up

Nah. Deals will dry up for Jan/Feb like they always do.

If you want a car and can’t wait for end of Q1 2023 I’d get my boots and gloves on now and go grind one out (or talk to a friendly roundel broker)

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Thanks. This helps. Do you see them getting better in the next 3-4 months? Not requesting you to predict the future but just a trend analysis?

Not necessarily better but at least in line with what we have to offer today.

Jan/Feb are gonna suck because they always do. You don’t give away the house for Nov/Dec and keep at it into the new year — That’s how you run out of cars to push Q1 targets with in March.

Here is something else then: why do I see more of 2023s for leasing vs 2022s? is this how it is at year end? Because (again, not experienced) my memory says 2022 should lease/sell better at this time.

2022 X5 pretty much finished delivering in August. Whatever didn’t sell to a customer or dealer trade got rolled into Loaner/Demo (speaking to what I witnessed at my partner stores)

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The answer to this is a resounding no. Deals are nowhere near the good old days

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Not that it matters, but if you’re curious. Around April 2020. A month or so after NYC shut down. If I remember correctly, a 90k x5 m50i at 12% off was ~$1050 with MSDs

  1. You’re not getting 12% off any X5
  2. The MF is atrocious.
  3. The residual dropped
  4. The incentives have largely disappeared

Think same car would run around $1400+ ? Now

There is no point of comparing current pricing to the past. You have 4 variable working against you (not including lower availability of X5s sitting on dealer lots, so I guess that’s 5 variables)

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Let him have a go at it, if that’s what he desires.

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I can’t thank you enough for putting the numbers here.

That’s what is I’m trying to get a reference of

So if my understanding is correct:

Discounts can the only thing that can be negotiated In this whole scenario
MFs and RVs are decided by the big guys and till the time Edmunds approve of it then we are to follow that correct for our negotiations? If a dealer is already following the same the no negotiations till the time it’s Edmunds approved?

Last thing apologies my words directed this discussion to just the BMW. I do have it top of the list but I did try out the numbers for a Mazda Nissan and Jeep basically a solid 3 row. I did that in case I could potentially sign an attractive “deal” on the non luxe and may be after 24 move to the luxe segment. open to comments on the strategy too

Edmunds does not approve or set the MF/RV.

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I got $90k x5 m50 in Nov 2019 for 36/12k with $0 down, only MSD for $950/mo including MA sales tax. Not seeing deals like that anytime soon - even if discounts and incentives return to pre-Covid levels, the MF and residuals are far worse, so it’s probably a worthless comparison.

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Not quite

Adding on to Jon’s point: Edmunds is the sanctioned source that will tell you what the captive (e.g. BMW FS) residual and buy rate MF are. As long as the dealership is using the captive lender: that is the residual (can’t be changed), the MF can be marked up. You are eligible for any incentives you are eligible for, but a shady dealer could obfuscate those in the deal so you want to verify those (Edmunds or Autobytel). The pre-incentive discount is the only negotiating point, assuming they are not marking up the MF and passing on all the incentives.

The lease programs change every month — in a few days November programs fall-off and it becomes a December to remember / Happy Honda Days (whatever you celebrate), so you will have to verify the programs again if you are still shopping. And occasionally some incentives might not change on the month (e.g. OL codes have their own expiration date).

If you are targeting BMW may I suggest

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