At what point is it better to buy vs lease? 2023 x3 m40i

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Long story short we’ve been driving a family beater and it finally crapped out and we need a car stat.

I am looking to lease my first car ever (buying it myself - the beater was from my parents) which is an x3 m40i 2023 etc in Brooklyn Gray. However, due to needing the car stat in addition to the specifics of the car I’d like, I’ve obviously been unable to find a car without having to order it for production.

I’ve found 2 cars that match exactly what I need, but unfortunately, the dealerships aren’t allowing them to be leased because they’re used and also not a BMW dealership. They have less than 700 miles each.

Considering that X3s aren’t leasing well, to begin with, based on what I can see compared to the rest of the stellar deals I’ve seen on this sub - at what point is it simply better to buy the car vs lease? I was thinking maybe buying the car on a 5/6yr term and trading it in during year 2 or 3.

I don’t know jack shit about cars all I know is that this is the car my wife wants and I need to find a way to get it lol.

Any help is greatly appreciated!

Deets on myself

  • T1/T2 credit (should be T1 but seeing that all the stuff hasn’t been posted successfully on my credit report)
  • Location: North Jersey
  • Ideally not looking to put anything down if buying - but can if need be.

Ah the old ETC trim, the best spec for the X3.

You’re targeting/set on a vehicle that isn’t discounted very much right now. So it’s really a question of total ownership cost over the period you plan to keep the car.

A quick look around the marketplace shows ~915 effective a month on a $62k example around $33k for the full 3 year term. This is equivalent to paying 53% of the msrp for 3 years of ownership. I dont know what msrp is on the one you’re looking at but the numbers should scale somewhat in line with that calculation.

So the question is, what kind of rate can you get for financing and what cost would that equate to over the same 3 year time frame?

The money factor (interest rate) on the lease seems to be decent at around 3.9% which can be further bought down to 2.9% with MSDs. If you can find better rates financing, that may the way to go.

Neither of these options are particularly cost effective due to your being locked in to this vehicle. Other similar products may be better values at this time.

Additionally your own finances may influence how you can structure your car buying transaction. You haven’t provided any details that would inform your financial situation.

Best of luck in your search.

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You make a good point on interest rates.

With the interest being so low on a BMW lease right now, it might make more sense for someone who wants to buy to lease instead, and then buyout when (and if) rates get better with a check from a credit union or something, since you don’t pay unearned interest with BMWFS.

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Yeah its all about interest rates these days. All other factors being equal, or in this case, nonexistent.

What kind of discount can you get on an x3 m40 right now?

Also, did lease support end on 2022s for bmw?

5% off, they’re hard to come by.

Still waiting to be sure on that, I’ll know in a little bit about the 22’s. They did say last call for 2022 last month, so…

Useful insight

Ok that could make sense for a car you really want

That doesn’t make any sense to me. Why would anyone pay such a massive amount of depreciation every 2-3 years?

Is there a reason your wife needs the m40i vs standard x3? The extra power is fun but if you’re going from a beater car to a standard x3, I’d imagine you’d have just as much fun while saving a considerable amount of money each month. If you were coming from a standard x3, the m40i is a hoot but coming from a beater, the standard x3 is still a decent amount of fun to drive.

yeah, we’re obsessed with the car, but in addition, it’s why I asked and created this post cause we’re not sure which route is best generally speaking as I was kinda hoping for some kinda benchmark of some sort. I did however just now get numbers back from the dealerships and to all of your guys’ points - the rates are just obnoxiously high esp considering the interest rates. So with this - we’ll continue to just focus on trying to lease these cars.

Completely valid. It’s an emotional purchase rather than a logical purchase for sure, but to sum it up - I’ve been able to drive this model/trim before as a rental for one of our road trips and just really enjoyed driving the car.

We’ve been driving the beater not due to financial constraints but rather because the car happened to be there and just didn’t make sense to get a car while we had a functional car just laying around. Now that it’s crapped out and I need to put money into a new car - I wanna make sure it’s something we enjoy instead of just another car that gets us from a to b.

If this,

Then why this?

If you have that kind of sensibility, the best would probably be to keep it for the full finance term. Or find a CPO on a relatively new one and save $.

Also attending a BMW UDE and getting an OL code will save you a few more $.

Leasing doesn’t protect you from the rise in interest rates over the last year. Money factors are higher just like APRs are higher.

Asking for quotes is going to lead to poor outcomes either way, lease or finance.

Construct your target deal and make offers.

Fair point but I would still test drive both so you can understand exactly what you’re getting (mainly performance) from the M40i vs 30i.

For me, until now BMW has never really crossed my mind in terms of purchasing just cause of the potential maintenance cost, repairs, etc but maybe I’m wrong about this too. Due to this, it’s always been more of a lease that I figured would be the safest bet as I’m fine with renewing every 3yrs understanding that I am paying a premium to lease vs own a car.

I’ve never attended a BMW UDE - what would be the cost-benefit of attending one?

$500-$1k
Its a fun time regardless. Mini track day.

They also have most of the lineup you can take for a spin on the local streets.

Your lowest TCO given today’s lease pricing is to buy/finance and own for ~6-7 years.

There’s no need to be too worried about the maintenance on BMW 2.0 I4 and 3.0 I6 engines. It’s just the V8s & above that you need to stay away from as a first time BMW buyer.

You can get good pricing on extended OEM warranties from the sponsoring dealers on the various BMW forums.

Tires from Tirerack dot com or locally price matched. Any good local Indy mechanic can do basic stuff like brakes and other consumables, don’t even need a BMW specialist for basic stuff like that. And the cost of those items is a little less on the 2.0 (or, as BMW calls it, 30i) if you want to dip your toes using that trim first.

So you’re saying I can buy extended OEM warranty on my expiring bmw lease ?
If I were to buy it out for whatever reason (prob not good idea)

2020 330i xdrive

Yup, you can extend the warranty on almost any brand as long as it’s less than N years or X miles old.

It’s not the most absurd thing in the world, depends on the buyout price vs what else you could get for similar money.

Just to chime in on the OI code: They also sometimes give them out for even attending the free UDEs (autocross, the M track days are $500-$1k, and still worth it). I got a $1000 code from attending the Philly autocross last month.
Now just need a car/deal to apply it to before it expires on 6/30.

They always give them out for the free UDEs.