As an insider, do you have an ETA on when this might happen?
@Dr1286 I just negotiated a deal on a c300 loaner and it said it was 2500 off and thats how much I got off.
Iām looking for a 2018 Tacoma limited lease. Do you know what the residual % would be for a 15K mile lease? for 36 months in NJ 08618 zip code?
Thank you for sharing this link. I missed that post and video. Iāll read that topic and respond in that post with my take on it.
Bottom line is that yes there will be a downturn in used prices but I donāt share this guyās view that it will be catastrophic for the entire industry. The demand in the industry is bi-modal (sedans vs. SUV/trucks) and more so now than ever before (during my 15 years of forecasting used vehicle prices). If that guy looked at the data for sedans only and then again for utils and then again for trucks, he would see that there is really only 1 true segment that is causing the overall industry view to look scary (sedans) and trucks are next in line for some correcting. SUVs are going to see some weakening but the demand is strong and so far has overcompensated for the increased off-lease supply hitting the market.
Luckily the RV guys in the industry all learned a lot during the last recession, the ones before it and all the other wacky RV losses we have to deal with on a model level when we are too bullish on a certain model/generation. It is totally cyclical and we have all been waiting patiently for the lights to go on at the end of the party. Iāve been waiting since 2013, actually, and my internal calibration of what normal pricing is for 2, 3, 4 and 5yo keeps getting adjusted. The industry experts have softened their level of pessimism dramatically over the last year as the supply angle really hasnāt played out like everyone expected it to.
I could go much deeper on this topic but only a few people here would really nerd out on this stuff like I do.
3 Likes
Just curious, did you graduated with a math degree or something? Im assuming you would need to have some great knowledge on numbers. How did you ended up working for a company that forecasts RVs? How many of you guys are in the company doing the same thing? Do you just deal with autos? Very curious about this unheard of (at least for me) field of occupation. =))
Engineering for me but most people in this niche studied statistics, econ, econometrics or applied math/data science. I worked my way up through various companies that deal with RVs. At my current company there are 2 dedicated RV people but we have a large committee that approves final RVs. In the past I was on much larger teams that handled setting RVs and other risk/analytic responsibilities.
@RVguy What is the average discount one should apply to 2018 bmw x5 35d loaner with 2000 miles on it. There is currently 9,500 knocked off the price ā from 72,560 (13% off). Based on my research, itās unclear just how much loaners with 2k miles should be discounted. 13% seems good, but if itās supposed to be more in the 20% range before incentives, I want to make sure I target it.
Thanks!! This has been a great resource.
1 Like
In your opinion (and knowledge) when is the best time to lease a Chevy Tahoe?
1 Like
Im in for this too. haha wife needs one
1 Like
@RVguy how do I determine the money factor on a lease through CULA? Do I just call the credit union near me? And do the rates vary by vehicle?
Timing on Tahoe deals varies by region. Some months last year, GMF had an extra 2500 incentive in some regions and only $1000-1500 in others. The Credit Unions leases can use the retail cash so in most months/regions, the CU lease would be competitive or slightly better than GMF.
Iām not sure if the varying regional lease cash program will be continued in the future or if it was to whack-a-mole the days supply creeping up on a regional basis. I think the trend in RVs from GMF will be lower this next year than last. I also think the MFs will be slightly higher as well. If you see a MF of less than 0.00150 on a Tahoe with more than 1500 lease cash through GMF, take it. If you are in a region with a CU that is leasing, I can check for any chevy dealers that are participating.
@chevysalesgirl can also weigh in on Tahoe deals in CA if there are any.
2 Likes
Would the same apply to Suburban LT or Yukon XL SLT? Looking for a credit union in north jersey 07645
The incentive I am seeing in my region right now is the conquest incentive, and for me possibly the educator discount. I donāt know if those can be combined? I currently lease a 16 Toyota 4Runner, but I lease through a CU. We almost traded back in December during the Employee Pricing incentive, but we decided to wait. Now we are kicking ourselves because we passed it up. I keep getting price drop notifications from my Car Guru app, so I am really dying to get my Tahoe! I feel like the employee incentive wonāt be back around for awhile. If you have any insight on this I am all ears!
@RVguy My CU is closed on the weekend, so would you be able to check if they are on the participating list this Conquest incentive and the educator discount? Dallas, Texas 75251
Ya Ive chatted with herā¦ Good deals but more than I was hoping to spend (Of course) but will probably bite the bullet this week.
1 Like
Visions FCU is who you can lease through in Bergen County NJ. Iāll check to see if they have any Chevy/GMC stores signed up.
Just had my first pass at a Volvo dealer in South Central PA. Volvo XC90 T5
MSRP $56,885
Customer Cash - 3500
MF.00099
RV 58%
10K per year
Thoughts on getting more off the MSRP where do I go from here. Is A-Plan available to someone like me or thoughts on me moving to a Lease Broker.
You should post this in your own thread as youāll receive more feedback. I donāt have any info on Volvo deals.
1 Like
Hi @RVguy,
1st and foremost thank you for your willingness to educate and inform us with such insight.
I donāt know if my question applies, but Iāll give it a try:
How do these leasing agencies (brokerages) make their profit? Specifically here in SoCal where it seems an auto leasing office is on every corner and they all promote 0 broker fee. A quick Yelp search yields over 20 results within a 10 mile radius of my residence.
I think the brokers make their money by negotiating a lower price through the dealer than what they offer to the customer. Their profit is the gap. I could be wrong but that is how brokers I know in NY make their money.
1 Like