Thanks for your reply. Infiniti residuals are really poor so I agree that going through IFS is the best bet.
Just wondering what you ended up doing. Not like I am planning to be in the same situation, but you never know 
Kia leases have huge lease cash upfront and super high money factor taking most of the lease cash back over the course of the lease. Is there an accounting benefit for Kia (something like lease rebate being part of COGS and not taxed as part of gross profit)? Otherwise customers are needlessly paying sales tax on that huge lease cash upfront and on the monthly rent charge.
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Wow, how did I miss this thread until now. Great info.
@RVguy Can you comment on why some OEMs allow out of state lease transfers, while other OEMs/financing arms like GM/GMF only allow in-state transfers? I know it probably has to do with taxes, but is there a reason other than some companies donāt want to deal with complicated tax situations?
Also, Iād just like your thoughts on the great 2016 Chevy Cruze Limited lease giveaway that happened a couple of years ago. I managed to cash in on that deal, and ended up flipping a 3 month old leased Cruze for almost $5k profit! How often have you seen those kinds of stupid cheap lease offers over the years?
Lease transfers across state lines are a PITA and some states are much more difficult than others. Most likely, the compliance dept at the captive puts their foot down and says it just isnāt worth offering. Those would almost all be completely manual processes and vary by state (to and from) so to manage the process/workarounds to make it all fly and stay compliant is no small feat.
Regarding the crazy lease deals throughout time, those are big time bombs for the lenders. A dealer will occasionally find one of those examples and then open the flood gates while they can get the deals in and funded before the captive realizes what hit them and shut it down. The deals happen when there is big incentives offered on top of heavily discounts from the dealer with a decent RV/MF at the time. If the people setting the RVs are aware of the incentives offered at the time, they would most likely try to quickly lower the RV.
At the end of the day, those types of deals are not beneficial to the overall leasing system in the long run. Sure you got a great deal and were able to profit at the expense of the OEM/captive. They made 3mo of interest off of you and most likely lost several thousand dollars on your lease. If enough people do that, it becomes noticeable to them at a larger vantage point and over time they will reduce the probability of offering decent lease deals in the future.
On average, leasing is going to be getting more expensive in the next 2-5 years. The Fed has hiked rates 5 times since starting their moves and they have telegraphed several rate increases in the coming quarters as long as the economy remains healthy (GDP growth of at least 2% and unemployment relatively flat are usually the Fedās tipping point). This means the cost of funds goes up for lenders which pass those on to consumers in the form of higher APRs, sometimes higher fees, and eventually higher money factors. They all still want to pump leasing so keeping low lease payments is a desire but not at the expense of profitability. Plus the used market is expected to dip (it has softened some in the last 2 years but not nearly as much as all the experts were expecting) so that means RVs will be lower than they were at previous times for the same model. This will continue.
But this is all cyclical so at some point the tides change and lease deals start getting better again.
@RVguy Iām located in NorCal and Iām looking to lease a Toyota Tacoma or a tundra through a credit union, since they offer higher residuals than TFS. The challenge is finding a dealership that works with credit unionsā¦ thoughts?
Thanks for the response.
The '16 Cruze Limited leases were nutsoā¦basically a perfect storm of incentives. 24 month leases, decent RVs (63% for an outgoing model), super low MFs, HUGE lease incentives (almost $7k on a MSRP $21k car thatās NOT an EV), big dealer discounts.
After tossing in the $700 Costco holiday gift card incentive, there were many people (including on here) that actually ended up with a net positive lease paymentā¦getting paid to lease a car! For the Cruze I leased, basically the only thing I ended up paying for was taxes, since MD taxes the full price on a lease.
The fact I was able to find a company that was willing to give me $3,700 over what I owed the leasing company was more lightning in a bottle (that company is not out of businessā¦go figure. Lol)
I donāt think weāll ever see that kind of deal ever again.
@Dr1286 Hi Devin, I should have an answer for you shortly regarding flying to another state that has a CU that you can join and lease through. I am 90% sure it wonāt work but there is a small chance.
@RVguy Awesome! Thanks!
@RVguy What is the recommendation for someone whoās lease is coming up in a few months? Leased a Hyundai Sonata in 2015 and felt like I got a good deal. Today, it seems like like itās much more difficult to get a good deal on the same car. Is the outlook any better the next few months or should I just try to find the best deal possible and go with it?
Just curious how close the people who are calculating the future RVs come to the actual average values and how often the actual RV is off from the projected RV by a large margin? Iām sure you have your benchmarks and metrics?
Thanks
Demand for used sedans has fallen so the auction prices continue to suffer. This means the RV losses on those vehicles terminating in this market are also high. The outlook is still pessimistic on these segments so future RVs are low, thus no great lease deals now for sedans on the new side compared to 2015.
I can confidently say with 100% certainty that the residual forecasts are never 100% accurate. 
Forecast accuracy is all relative to the way each lender sets risk tolerance/appetite and how their business is structured. Everyone that is in the leasing business has some sort of reserve for losses. I would estimate somewhere in the range of 35-200bps is how much most lenders are reserving for RV losses.
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Thanks for the information. Seems like a catch22ā¦ sedans have lower RV and not as popular compared to SUV/Crossovers as they usually have higher RV. But dealers try to make deals on sedans but not as much as SUV/Crossover. Any car type that is selling slowly (getting better deals) and has a decent RV?
@RVguy I am a USAA member. How do I ask for the USAA fleet discount on a Mercedes Benz loaner lease? I believe it $500, correct? I canāt seem to find it when I loginā¦ any help?
Update: I got my control number. It says that there is a 1,250 discountā¦ my understanding it was $500
Hello,
I was wondering what is the best way to lease a car in New York City? A car buying service like Costco, using a car broker, walking into a dealership and negotiating, etc. Iām in my early 20s so how can i lease a car without looking like a total rookie and having them rip me off?
They will see that you are a rookie, no matter what you do. But if you prepare well and negotiate well, you can get your deal. But maybe just hire a broker, who will teach you about leasing along the way. So next time you can do it on your own.
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Sorry I am not familiar with USAA-specific incentives. They most likely are done through TrueCar since they are affinity partners.
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Urus has a great point. This can be an intimidating interaction because the dealership is the salesmanās turf and he has a lot of tactics at his disposal to try and disarm a customer such as yourself with new found internet-sourced negotiation strategies.
I would try to handle as much as you can via email with the internet sales manager at various dealers. You can use this forum to ask people who had amazing experiences with sales people who were low pressure and easy to work with or as Urus mentioned, find a reputable broker and pay them a small feee to be your advocate.
In the end, this is all business. Every dollar you get off your selling price is a dollar less earned by that dealership. they want the sale but still need to have some profit baked the deal in order to stay in business.
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USAA incentive varies by model with MB. Great program.