A six month chart of Ford Motor stock… rather ugly!

A six month chart of Ford Motor stock…

Obviously people are being priced out of the new car market…

If I remember correctly… the F150 Is the largest volume vehicle in US…


The whole market is down pretty hard over the last six months, this doesn’t seem like anything extraordinary.


The stock is down more than 50%… that a huge downward trend…

Obviously that signals that investors don’t think the fundamentals of the automobile business look good going forward…


Please do not remind me as I’m the person who bought 200 shares at 24 thinking the Lightning and Mach E sales were going to propel it to $30.

I’ll hold it for a while, and it may be worth it to keep 100 shares for the access to X Plan, provided one can’t get a better deal outside of X.

Certainly know how to pick ‘em :man_facepalming:t2:


No 100 billion dollar company should lose 65% of its market cap unless they’re in dire situations. We know that’s not the case. It’s just a casino. Hedge funds robbing pensions and 401ks.

Same accord they also shouldn’t go up 500% in a couple years either unless they invented some form of free energy :joy:


To make it sting a little more… Ford ended the X-plan pin for shareholders :grimacing:


And the hits just keep coming! In all honesty the only thing I was mildly considering was a Ranger, however it looks if I was going to do that, it would have been a purchase from Granger and at last look, they were still going below X plan on orders though that certainly could have changed.

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Charts taken out of context can be used to tell any story. But it’s usually not the whole story.

If you zoom out, it puts the absurd run-up in the entire market in late 2021 into perspective and it looks a lot less dire for Ford. Frankly, it’s where it should be right about now.


Agreed. Look at the sector performance the past six months: F, GM, STLA, TSLA, TM

Toyota is only down 22%


Six month chart of our net worth.



Does this chart include $2 recoveries by short-paying your Discover bill?


Amazon gift card balance is de minimis (at least for now).

GM, TSLA, TM, BMWYY, HMC, etc are ALL down YoY, and some significantly.

I’m not sure what you mean by “Investors don’t think the fundamentals of the automobile business look good going forward…” Are you trying to say that cars are going to suddenly disappear from the marketplace, especially since virtually every brand is currently down?

It won’t happen in our lifetimes if you are. It’s a market correction.


There should be a blanket ban on stock talk on LH. The discourse is, um, not good.

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Less dire but maybe still quite dire? Considering the SNP500 is up 58% over the same time frame.

I personally find this to be a sigh of relief as a car buyer, maybe proving that the current market isn’t really “the new normal”? And that Ford will return to volume based business model rather than profit per unit based, to try to resuscitate their stock growth.

You can probably tell my major wasn’t in business.

Ford is going toward a 1 price, no negotiation model with their electric vehicles, with an order and deliver model, vs hundreds of cars on a dealership lot, similar to Tesla. Maybe their ICE vehicles will return to a volume-based model, but it will be short lived if it does, and I don’t suspect that will happen either. Ford wants to keep more of the moolah in house vs selling at invoice to a dealership. Dealerships are loving this profit on the sales side as well, so they’re not going to be in any hurry to lobby for full lots.

I suspect you’ll see other brands moving toward a similar model if F is successful. In other words, don’t hold your breath on the car market “going back to normal.”

I think you mean the S&P 500 :joy: but yeah - I’m not saying Ford has been a great investment over this time period, just that it’s misleading to share a 6 month chart out of context given the macro situation. It’s worth noting that Ford has offered a decent dividend for some time, which (a) inhibits the price per share growth and (b) appeals to a different sort of investor from your typical ‘growth’ stock.

As for whether the company will ever return to a volume model, a lot of that depends on what happens elsewhere in the industry. If more manufacturers do end up reverting to the old model, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ford changes course yet again.

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If your designing a supply chain from scratch they can ride the new model across the board but given how well enshrined the old model is I can’t see the new model paying dividends for the older model. Shuttering or idling a significant amount of your production/manufacturing capacity wont be cheap so I don’t see FORD or any Manufacturer switching to what amounts to a consumer driven model…at least not in a span of 3-5 years. Thats a lot of capital/depreciated assets to offload.

you honestly think ford will be able to cut out their dealers on all EV’s? they’re making money hand over fist on these electric cars. i can’t imagine them willingly giving that up.

They don’t have a choice if Ford wants to sell direct to consumer. Sure, it might not happen overnight with the dealership lobby and subsequent lawsuits, but if Ford wants to do it like Tesla, there’s not much the dealership can do if Ford can get the required government approvals.

If Tesla can do it, there’s really nothing stopping Ford from doing it too.