Those V8 are niche market, not even sustainable to open a service center in Germany.
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Didnt read the entire thread but here is my view on current policies :
- US built the global trade structure post WW2 and benefited and still benefiting from it tremendously at the aggregate level.
- Transition from manufacturing based economy to service based economy was expected consequence. Certain regions and demographics paid the price while others got wealthier.
- This shift created inequalities and more importantly concentrated the wealth within âglobalistsâ .
- People who did not get their slice of the pie voted globalists out demanding more fair distribution of wealth.
- Current administration came up with a brilliant(!) idea of strong arming other countries by threatening tariffs or elseâŚ
We will see how it works out.
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If I were in the market in the next 3-4 months, Iâd probably be inclined to seriously look at a car this weekend, but it also depends on what type of vehicle you are looking for.
Best case the tariffs go through and you saved a bunch of money.
Worse case the tariffs donât and you bought a car a few months early but probably paid the same price now as you would have otherwise.
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Assuming sweeping 25% auto tariffs go into place, at the end of the day, this will destroy demand. Ferrari already announced a 10% price increase, thatâs an outlier where their consumer is different than everyone else and will just eat it. You tell the typical 3 Series customer the car just went from $50 to $55-$60k, consumer is near tapped. It wonât run everyone off, but it will run some off. In the shorter term, itâs absolutely inflationary, medium term, contrarian view, I could see it being deflationary, and not deflationary in a good way (itâs never good, but this would be bad).
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Sorry, if the customer is near tapped and $5-$10K is a breaking point, they shouldnât be buying or leasing a new BMW anyway.
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Iâve got some harsh news for you about at least 50% of people who are buying new BMWâs and most other luxury brands.
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you can thank the CHIPS act for that. you know, the one where republican congresspeople like to tout the new plants and investments that happen in their districts, while conveniently hiding that they voted against the actual law.
but politics aside, i donât think you understand how capitalist economic theory actually works and the consequences of global trade disruption whether via physical (i.e. chip shortage) or economic (i.e. tariffs and trade barriers). see in 2021/22, people were flush with cash, having not spent on travel, dining out, etc, and having collected 3 stimmyâs, expanded unemployment, and PPP. they spent money like they were on crack. thatâs not the case now. people are broke - they overspent and are living on borrowed money. if this sticks, we are in for severe economic pain.
Also, for christâs sake, learn proper homonym usage.
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My man, you are cooking today.
Car brokering must be your second career. Were you in academia?
M&A and PE.
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The CHIPS Act, despite political posturing, acknowledges a vital truth, domestic chip manufacturing is essential. While the 2021-22 spending surge was unsustainable, it doesnât invalidate the need for strategic economic policies. We canât remain vulnerable to foreign supply chain disruptions. Yes, tariffs and trade adjustments might cause short-term economic pain, but theyâre necessary steps towards long-term economic resilience and a stronger, more self-sufficient American economy. Its more so about protecting ourselves from foreign reliance and reducing our debt.
Next time i"m in Brooklyn you can help me with my grammar, punctuation and Homonym usage,
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I donât buy gloom around tariffs that much. The important question is where residuals would go.
One thing I agree with - people hate uncertainty. If you put up tariffs - better do it in systematic way. Otherwise recession and pent-up demand (which stems from delayed/avoid spending/investment) will get us into stagflation.
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The reality of chip production is the modern machines (EUV that cost $300M+ each) are made in Netherlands (ASML) with China supposedly catching up. And many specialized parts built in Japan and other random countries. If Intel wasnât a giant cluster like Boeing and Stellantis I would have more faith in US chipmaking.
The world is global. Itâs impossible to untangle it. These tariffs are exactly what they are - to raise prices so local manufacturers can compete with their higher prices. I still donât want an Intel CPU that might crash though. Intelâs problem is design/QC/leadership.
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Very solid question to raise, could create a real issue for leasing banks.
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VAT is relevant insofar as barriers to entry are concerned, in conjunction with elevated tariffs. Free trade is great when itâs actually free, fair and equitable. When one country charges 2.5% and the other charges 10%, how free is that? That being said, contrary to what you have stated and in consideration of the fact that you donât know me, I am not a fan of 25%. To level the playing field, the tariffs should be reciprocal until all countries come to a mutually beneficial agreement. Nevertheless, I am not going to jump the gun on gloom/doom because I personally think this is a negotiating tactic and we will see where it goes from here.
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Finally, the era of cheap car in US is over. You guys donât know how good you have it so far. Check how much a similar 3 series BMW cost in other country, what you get for 3 series here may only afford you a civic in other country. 
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Thatâs what NAFTA provides and I do not see many people on the new right speaking up for it. This isnât actually about free trade.
Yeah itâs a negotiating tactic. But even if we get some preferential trade deal down the road if Canadians and European consumers look down on America they will not buy out products. Building vehicles and planes is very expensive, you cant compete with Airbus and BMW if your market is only the domestic audience. See below
For example the liberals were in big trouble in Canada even after Trudeau announced he was not standing for election. But the liberal candidate is now running on a strongly pro Canada anti-Trump platform. And now the CBC gives conservatives almost no chance of winning a majority. You just canât piss off multiple major markets and expect them to continue buying out products.
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Iâm a huge Elon fan, but I think the street is a little too exuberant on the Tesla benefit from tariffs. If anything, used car lots are the biggest winners here short term.
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