This type of policy just causes chaos, those sales were rushed in fear of price hikes, which is not good for consumers. Manufacturers and other trading countries are also in limbo as to what to do. Some companies have paused hiring and investing further with the uncertainty. All of the sudden I see more vehicles on CarGuru that show “over priced” coincidence?
I agree with this. I don’t necessarily hate tariffs, but atm there really doesn’t appear to be any policy and relative timing other than talking points and the whim of the current admin. That is creating chaos and the market & gold prices are reflecting it. I’d hate to go into a recession, and no one knows if it will happen, but if it does it’s going suck big.
Its bound to happen. Just a matter of when
I don’t agree with Biden’s tariffs either, but they were much less damaging and far more justified because they only targeted one country that is purposefully subsidizing its exports to outcompete local producers. They didn’t break existing free trade treaties nor did they target countries that have been our allies for the last 70 years.
I think we can agree that 25% is excessive. Reciprocal on a country-by-country basis is one thing. But 25% across the board is not reciprocal. And there is seemingly no transition period for manufacturers to make adjustments to appease the policy. This could be saber rattling like we’ve seen in other instances, but chaos has clearly ensued as evidenced on this thread alone. We just have to wait and see - I can guarantee there are behind closed doors conversations, be it with lobbyists or other countries. Deep breaths.
Well- first off it was 100% on EV’s and 25% on batteries and steel. We do get most of our lithium-ion batteries from them, but it only amounts to around $15-20B in trade value yearly, which is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things. US doesnt import a lot of steel from China. Around 2% or less of our imported steel comes from China.
So as you can see, tariffs implemented by Biden in 2024 had a smaller impact. While the tariff introduced by Trump cast a wider net- 25% on all cars not made in the US, which affects all brands, including US brands that manufacture certain models abroad and parts made abroad. The tariffs are completely different as far as impact is concerned and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how they’ll be implemented. Furthermore, this administration is prone to announcing things and then walking them back… leading to even more uncertainty. Uncertainty is the last thing you want in business.
Imho, Trump should have announced a 5-10% tariff and let markets and makers respond. Then ramped up next year to 15%, if they felt it was warranted. And so on. These large scale changes implemented at once just lead to chaos for companies and consumers.
Or the administration could have established specific percentages for specific countries based on their tariff %’s on US made vehicles.
Lots of options out there but this administration usually chooses to go balls to the wall and create chaos and uncertainty and that’s the theme here as well.
It’s the same thing, what happened over that time period? Exceedingly loose monetary and fiscal policy
What else exploded over same period, RE, fancy watch values , crypto , heck even s&p has basically doubled in last 5 yr ( even comparing pre COVID numbers to today after we’ve had a roughly 10% pullback) which is quite significant outperformance .
It’s all the same trade basically
Its a pretty anticipated (and quite frankly, overdue) recession. Has any other recession been this anticipated?
Good, because I’m trying to get a V8 AMG at 50% off w buy rate lolol
In case anyone wants to read it, this is the official press release on the auto tariffs and why they’re so great! It’s specific to autos and auto parts. I can pick apart this piece, but the final uncited paragraph had me rolling. Like, who wrote it? Where is the evidence? “A 2024 financial analysis” :
- A 2024 economic analysis found that a global tariff of 10% would grow the economy by $728 billion, create 2.8 million jobs, and increase real household incomes by 5.7%.
Feels like dealers are making out like bandits this weekend.
I don’t even need to read the “analysis” to know the list of assumptions is longer than the analysis itself. But on the top:
- Assumes 10% is enough to force the hand of companies (it won’t for most)
- Assumes no counter tariffs (oh wait)
- Assumes those 2.8 million jobs are desirable and pay locally livable wages. Otherwise this outcome is meaningless
Imagine paying 10% more for imported goods and your car to get 5.7% more in your pay check
This is what I find so frustrating, and I’ll keep it specific to cars, but it can be applied universally:
-
We already have a winning hand.
-
Therefore, the need to speak loudly and aggressively is unnecessary. Speaking gently while carrying the big stick is a much more beneficial negotiating tactic.
-
You want auto manufacturing in the USA, it’s not difficult. “Move manufacturing here and we’ll give you a huge tax break.” Done, that simple! Even better, you get to take the strong (or was strong) dollar and repatriate it back in Germany.
Instead of easy as 1, 2, 3 without making us the villains, now we have a clusterF with people fist fighting for $450 EQBs to end March.
Also, we already have a very strong and competitive auto manufacturing industry in the USA! You want to make a national security argument, then let’s talk ships and solar panels.
Well, there’s gotta be a connection to Mr DOGE to boost his EV sales as they’ve been sluggish lately…lets wait and see what they report after this is said and done. #Quid-Pro-Quo-Bro
I’ll bite since I had mentioned earlier in the thread about my degree in econ and international relations. What makes you think that my post criticizing the blanket 25% tariff was a praise on Biden and his policies? Blocking the entry of Chinese EV manufacturers to the US market actually hurts the American consumer. Their competitive prices would have lowered the cost of EVs in the country so it is the wrong method (import substitution rather than export promotion) just like Trump is using. Clearly the labor unions and the auto industry lobbied for this and Biden gave in. I judge policies based on their merits, not on who is implementing them. Non-reciprocal tariffs are illogical and ineffective, there is no empirical data suggesting otherwise.
Excellent points. Agree fully. Blanket tariffs serve no purpose and only serve to erode business confidence and anger allies.
I will bite back with my MS in Applied Economics and international business dealings, which tells me that tariffs are bad and open trade is good. However, we’re automatically assuming these 25% tariffs, and not 5-10% incremental tariffs (as another poster mentioned), are anything more than geopolitical posturing. The things people hate about the current White House are the things I love the most. In fact, the vast majority of us love it because we’re employed by people who throw shit at the wall and see what sticks.
ie: We should create a website dedicated to educating people on how to get a lease deal. 50% say that is dumb, it will never work, dealers will catch on. 50% say “Wow, that will work and it’s great to help people.” Here we are years later with a fully baked website, loaded with brokers and dealers all fighting to give the best deal…and a select few offering advice.
Since you are talking about achievement, Please point out what are his ‘successful’ business ventures are?
Casinos?
Airlines?
Water bottle?
Hotels?
Wine?
Universities?
Steaks?
Magazines?
Vodka?
Yep throwing plenty of shits on the wall indeed, no wonder it stinks.
you’re going to get put in gaol again…