2024 X5 40i - Can't reconcile numbers from dealer with calculator

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Despite the less than ideal lease environment for BMWs these days, I’m looking into leasing a 2024 X5 Xdrive40i. I have a dealer who has agreed to an 8% discount pre-incentive. There’s a $1,000 lease incentive and $1,500 loyalty rebate I qualify for. Base MF is .00210 and residual is 52% for a 10k/year lease. When I pop the numbers in to the calculator I’m getting a payment of $1,152 with tax, down payment is first month’s payment plus registration. The dealer’s number for this same set of data is $1,331. He has shared with me the output from the BMW system confirming that he’s using the correct MF, residual, and other pertinent numbers and has no explanation for why we are so far apart on the numbers. Anything I’m missing?

Here’s the link to the calculator

And here’s a screenshot of the dealer’s worksheet.

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Is the $4081 on the sheet a different tax on top of the monthly tax on your payment?

Seeing you are from IL, your calculator show a ~$700 or so tax differential. I am not familiar with tax on leases in your region but I understand the tax taws to be unfavorable. Suspect the calculator is underestimating here.

Also, you should be getting a .0004 MF reduction, if you have loyalty, on top of the rebate. So your calculator is even higher then the optimal target at your discount.

TLDR; Does it even matter? This is a terrible lease. The TCO is over $40K.

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If you are in city of Chicago there is additional 9% tax on lease payments (total of about 18%). Need to buy if in city limits as lease a major taxation bomb!

Why don’t you finance?

Thanks for the responses. I very well may end up simply purchasing and financing some of the cost. My motivation to at least look into a lease is that 70% of the miles put on this vehicle will be for business uses and it’s cleaner to take the deduction with a leased vehicle than to purchase and deal with depreciating it. This isn’t enough to push me into a bad lease deal, but it’s a strong consideration and I felt it was worth exploring my lease options.

I’m outside of the city so don’t have to deal with the extra tax assessed to Chicago residents. My tax is a straight 8.25% on the lease payments. I’ll probably go back to the drawing board on this and likely reconsider a purchase.

He is also most likely marking up the MF to 25.

Have you inquired with any brokers?

It is more complicated than that. You should be checking the total lease payment box, then NY, then capitalize all taxes. That will get you within a few dollars per month of the correct payment.