Earlier this year I totaled my Q5, which I had just leased 9 months prior…they assign a fair market value + tax…if it’s less than the payoff, then gap insurance kicks in. If it’s more than the payoff, then you (the lessee/owner) get the overage. They seemed to look at comparable cars in the used marketplace to determine value.
My dealer gave me a great deal on my lease, so I actually got paid over $3500 (including 800 audi care refund)…that was with only first month drive off.
I guess what I’m saying is that it all depends on what the insurance company values the car at…but I doubt you would ever recoup the full down payment.