Remember in the 80s when Volcker said he was going to kill inflation? Back then, inflation went to levels that required bond yields to go to 16%. It has gone down from 16% all the way to UNDER 1%. Bonds were a great investment at 16%. They are a horrible investment, in my opinion (not advice), at the current yields. Think about this, the last time we had over 8% CPI, 10-year treasury yield was OVER 12%. Today, it is just about 3%. So when interest rates go up or the coupon or the required yield on your bond needs to increase, the price of your bond goes down. So for the past 40 years, we were living in an environment when the price of bonds went up because interest rates were going down. Now, we’ve hit this inflection point and it’s simply not possible for the yields to go back to 16% because US has such a debt burden that it would literally bankrupt the nation. Now, I am confident to say that the correct coupon is NOT 3% for the US 10-year when inflation is at all time highs.
Now, anyone that owns a bond right now is getting rekt because of two known things. 1. They’re not getting the appropriate coupon or yield on their bond. 2. When they lend the treasury money for let’s say 10-years, they will not be getting 100% of your investment back.
Also I encourage people to read their bond prospectus, it will state something like “the issuer has no obligation to pay interest and principle to the investor”.
Ooooo always remember not your keys not your coins!
Celsius has officially paused all withdrawals, swaps, and transfer between accounts. I imagine they’ve been running fractional for months, just speculating though .
Leverage and equity DO NOT mix well, especially in the Bitcoin market. I imagine we will continue to see intermediary failures throughout the space as leverage is being wiped out and to that I say good riddance. Do your research
I’ve been messing around in Defi on Cronos network… What a chit-show! I haven’t lost any money, but I can’t believe how stupid/greedy people are. Literally people were sitting on hundreds of thousands of $ in “profit” (easily 10-20x what they “invested”), and instead of cashing out some of the profits, they decided to HODL (sellers get rekt, right?) and lost 95+% of their investment. We’re talking life changing money gone in a span of a month.
Meh it’s not that common to have these massive gains. Far far more who blew themselves up with this leverage. These amounts of leverage never work over long periods of time in any time frame.
10- 100x callable leverage does not work over any time frame on any asset class. It’s pretty incredible like ftx literally trades against and liquidates their own clients. It’s essentially a can’t lose set up for them via their subsidiaries. The dollar figures I’ve heard thrown around via these crypto quant/HFT funds are gigantic. They are making just obscene amounts of money, even compared to similar more traditional equity groups.
Not deploying any capital or changing any positions this week, I’ve tried catching a falling knife before, more than once
Edit: financial news this morning brining back all the traders who were on in the past couple weeks, who pushed trades that failed to catch it. Only thing lacking is “March of the Pigs” by NIN as the music bed
Ba long calls have looked good for over a year and have bled. I would wait till after the summer travel. Then it’ll crater with recession. Target $100 entry.
There’s so much cash on the sidelines here waiting for that to happen. Which means it likely never will. Foreign and domestic investors are flush down here
My lease is up in October and anything I see now that’s under $4000 is either in a junky building or just seasonal until December. I do think this is the top though. There’s so many empty units here from South American investors that just prefer to hold housing over their national currencies. At night you can see almost 50% of units are empty/unoccupied in brickell.
Also starting to see price decreases in the 1-2mill market for the first time. Previously they would list a property and increase the price 50k after a few days.
Celsius, the crypto exchange that halted all withdrawals and transfers after BTC plunged below $22k yesterday, is said to be in a liquidity crisis (don’t have the funds on hand if everyone withdraws their money). I read that if BTC drops in the 17k range, Celsius will be margin called on their leveraged BTC holdings. If that happens, are we gonna witness things that will make yesterday’s crypto carnage look like a tendies feast?
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. Wonder if there will be a bounce tomorrow before fed meeting Wednesday
