The problem with that is the bubble inflation process. A few years before the dot com crash many mentioned the obvious bubble and exited…they got the correction they wanted but 3-4 years later and the lows were about where they originally sold anyway. It’s tricky to say the least.
There was an article on SA recently about how an account would have performed if one invested at market peaks…the numbers were just slightly under the average. Moral of the story was, obviously, buy and hold.
Sitting on mostly cash too until I decide which way to go here…so I’m in the worst possible position currently.
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I’m right there with you! I think slowly moving money in on red days is a good way to approach it. At least, that’s how I’ve approached it!
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TikTok investors are a different breed. “it’s so easy”. Reminds me of the good old days when people were getting into Forex trading and everyone was saying it’s easy.
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Ethereum is what I invest my money in.
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I sold VTI in Feb due to seeing the coronavirus in the news, SP500 near ~3200. Bought a bit of it back at ~2300 and thought I was a genius. Then watched it rise up to 3400 before I finally bought back in. I lost out overall on the transaction. Timing the market is tough.
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In my humble opinion… Traditionally S & P 500 will fluctuate. But over the years, the index has returned consistently 10-12% annually year after year over the long peiouds of time!
AKA Warren Buffet’s time tested investment advice and what I hold true to as well.
I finally sold the last of my T after holding it for years waiting for a breakout that never came. I would agree, I think they have way too many deep rooted fundamental issues that will make it very difficult for the stock to do anything but tread water for some time…
Agreed. I moved a bit of my large cap index fund in to a russell index fund Q4 last year. So far happy with the decision.
My cost basis on rds.b is around $25. I had planned on holding it for quite some time and wait around the dividend to creep back up to pre-covid levels. Now I’m not so sure that will ever happen. Considering exiting the whole thing for a decent gain in 6 months’ time.
Well put.
This is the problem with trying to time the market, especially a bubble, you have to be right twice. History shows you’re better off just averaging in and riding the ups and downs rather that sitting on the sidelines waiting for a correction and that perfect time to jump in 
I’ve been a V shareholder since IPO. This is the first time where I can honestly say I think the valuation is stretched. Average PE typically runs low 30’s, currently, it’s north of 40 (and got as high as 46-47 a month ago). Even if V continues to grow earnings as projected (5.5eps this year, 6.84eps next), and you take the reversion to the mean approach with pe, that puts the stock at 33*6.84 = ~225 through next year. That’s only about a 12-13% move over the next two years, in total returns (+dividend, which is small). I still like V a lot, but I’m torn on what to do at these valuation levels, even if I’m bullish on earnings growth, god forbid they miss a couple quarters coming up…
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If only it was that easy. In reality this doesn’t take into account all the stocks that were delisted from the s&p over the years. To get that 10% you need someone who really knows how to rebalance each year. This also doesn’t account for inflation so hack 3-4% off that 10-12% gainz.
Doesn’t an s&p 500 index fund take the rebalancing out of it? Also, believe the average rate of inflation over the past decade is less than 2.
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Sure a fund would then you have to take into account their fees. I’m not saying it isn’t possible and over the last 10 years it’s even more possible. But going from a historic perspective it’s not just a guaranteed given. Timing is important too. If you started in 2004 then lost half in 2008 it took much more time then someone that started in 2010 to realize those gains.
And yes cpi is 2% CPI doesn’t include food and energy and it’s overweight towards urban cost of living.
Most urban families don’t have 2-3 children to feed and a commute to work so you can see just from that example CPI falls short for a large number of families and what they truly see in lost purchasing power each year.
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Alright so I sold NFLX. I told myself that if we got one more good bump in tech that I’d take my profits and rotate.
Now that I’ve sold, NFLX is now going to 
for the rest of the week. All NFLX holders can thank me
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Watch it keep going into tomorrow 
I was nervous about earnings and sold most of it prior to (
) but as soon as I saw the bump, I knew it was time to get out.
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Pretty sure NFLX always tanked after earnings so it is cool to see a reversal, i think the bar was set pretty low this time so it wasn’t too hard to beat.
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Nflx and most tech will keep going to the moon regardless of rationality, until it doesn’t anymore. At the end of the day you can’t be upset for locking in profits. If you believe in their business model there will be down days to get back in. Nflx is historically a roller coaster so best to set it and forget it if you have a long time investment horizon on it.
None of these stocks make any sense to value investors. But they are cash registers for now, especially with Hollywood taking a dump.
Are there any stocks out there that still make sense to value investors?
Feels like value investing is a dying breed in ”print-to-infonity-and-beyond” world
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There’s still a good amount of dividend paying stocks out there I like. I liked them a lot more 6 months ago though. Adjust your p/e for inflation and possibly some companies still make sense.
Most aren’t us based however.
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6 months ago was a once in 10 years fire sale the way I see it😂
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