Yeah, I guess he didn’t put a specific timeline. I assumed he meant later this year, but I could be wrong.
I hear you but you know what they say about assuming…
There’s a lot more nuance to it.
The last time there was a drastic cutback in new vehicles sold (financial crisis and its aftermath), that fed fewer vehicles into the used car pipeline. Used car prices reflected that for a long time and enabled the high RV that was one of the main drivers of the leasing boom that lasted until COVID.
The crazy offers from automated buyers are a slightly different story. Outbidding each other and MMR cannot last forever. Some may go bust and remaining bidders will adjust to reflect less competition. There may even be some liquidation events although volume may too be small to be more than a blip.
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Anyone remember Beepi? Lol
I cashed in courtesy of them during the 2016 Cruze lease giveaway. Then they went bankrupt soon after (probably because they overpaid for Cruzes and the like).
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Yeah they burnt through $150+ million in VC money which was a shocking number at the time.
Then Uber entered the chat.
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Noting that Carmax hit an alltime high today
Also Carvana has bounced back to it’s trading range from late August
Party on dudes…
I continue to believe Carvana and the like are partially being propped up by the old adage let someone else take the depreciation on a car it’s better to buy used. In normal times, there is just no reason to buy late model used cars from them.
You forgo some/most of/all of the warranty, lemon law protection and get a car with let’s say 20k-40k miles all to save maybe 10%-20% versus buying new. And some of that savings is spent on the higher interest rates charged used car buyers. It just doesn’t make sense
In the current environment, I can maybe understand for some cars that would take months to get new the instant gratification of Carvana. But for cars that are available today, and often for at or under MSRP (like the Jetta I just bought), Carvana and CarMax are selling most 2019-2021 models for more than a new one would cost at dealership.
Sure its just one of many reasons these places are doing so well but it certainly drives a lot of their more affluent/higher credit score clientele.
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Never underestimate the laziness of the American consumer. The only reason I’m scared of this short position I’m holding. But I’m banking on a return to normal in the market along with the loss of purchasing power that was artificially inflated through govt programs. I’ve certainly been wrong before. Time shall tell
Check out private sale ads on Facebook. People don’t even wash/vacuum the car. That’s worth like $1500 in this market!
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Guess we should comb through CL and see if we can WSB the market on these bad boys!
400-Mile 2000 Chevrolet Metro Fetches $18,200 on Bring a Trailer (msn.com)
That’s a different insanity, which existed long before COVID.
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Got an online offer of $52,300 from WeBuyAnyCar and went in for an in person inspection.
They didn’t find anything wrong with the car (2022 model with 3k miles) but they said they had to decrease their offer to $50,800 because the car is financed and it takes a while to get the title.
WTF? Since when do you get less because the vehicle is financed? What a bunch of bull.
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They’re willing to pay less because they have to take on holding costs/risks. Doesn’t surprise me.
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I don’t think it’s the fact that it’s financed but the fact that it will take them 30 days (or more) to get title.
When you deal with wholesale pricing and you run the vehicle through auction without title, it’s called blue light. Blue light auctions usually perform below average. So, either the wholesaler holds it, until title shows up, or runs it blue light… either costs more then if you had title at delivery.
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9.2% month over month increase in October per Manheim. The insanity not only continues but accelerates…
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Plugged in my since-sold Blazer VIN into CarbuyerUSA’s site…their quote has pretty much stayed the same since I got the first one a month ago. I’m thinking FWD cars are in less demand compared to AWD due to winter coming soon, so the fact the quote is relatively stable is probably further support the insanity is not close to over yet.
I did the same thing on my qx60. I sold my for $36,860 on friday. Today the price was $37,400.
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Manheim Index Shows Historic Wholesale Price Increase in October
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 9.2% month-over-month in October. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 223.7, a 38.1% increase from a year ago.
https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html
Did you see that Oct Used Sales are 10% down from last year?
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Is that supply constrained or demand constrained though? Increased pricing and diminished volume points to supply constraints.
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