Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

It has already been “here” for almost 45 years (active numbers, not retired):

UAW membership 1979: 1,500,000 (peak number)

UAW membership 2004: 650,000

UAW membership 2023: 400,000


Oh for sure. 2027 100k would be a ton. Prob closer to 10k. I prefer the hand built cars and those guys adjusted for inflation made much much more bc they were skilled.

That’s why I said they might as well just fold to concessions instead of losing a ton. Give them a 60/40 split for what they want. They will be obsolete soon anyway.


USA #1

i do wonder how a company that made $12 billion in revenue last year will be able to hold out on these lean times.

As of June net income was like 4 bill yoy. Paid close to half that in dividends. If they paid the other 2 billion to the workers that’s $5000 per union member.


What in heaven’s name are you talking about?

Ford lost $2 billion in 2022. :roll_eyes:

EBITDA 12,902

They did well in 2022 like all autos did. They lost 2 bill on Evs. However the last year from June to June their net income went from 12 billion to 4 billion. So they’re trending down hard.

What papa doesn’t understand is that corporations are obligated to make money for shareholders. They pay employees wages inline with the industry. Ford is 144 billion in debt and has 30 billion in cash. They’re gonna need that cash for the shitstorm that’s potentially coming.

Even if they “redistributed” that 30 billion to employees, that’s 75k an employee…we could take it the other way and the employees can take on fords debt. Aka the risk the company takes to make a profit. Employees seldom realize that it exists.

The unions demands are ludicrous with current pay scale of auto workers and they’re just going to negotiate themselves out of a job anyway.


Absolutely. He also doesn’t understand that the actual bottom line (a $2 billion loss for all of Ford for 2022) is the bottom line with shareholders, investors and everyone else.

See above. Accounting statements aren’t hard to read (for most people).

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Since we’ve now waded into Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, I’m putting the thread on slow mode at least until tomorrow.


6 posts were merged into an existing topic: Off Topic Landfill 5

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When do you guys think we will see some crazy lease incentives? Or lease deals? From what I’ve been hearing from the so-called experts on YouTube, everybody is hurting in the car industry. Prices are at an all-time high, interest rates are crazy! Even the economic Minds think that you’re going to see price drops throughout the car industry very soon. What are your thoughts?

as long as the supply stays on the power side and rates high I cant see it changing .
Inventory has gotten better but dealers are still asking over MSRP and rates are high.

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if people are dumb enough to pay over MSRP, dealers will keep charging over.


This has been asked and answered like a million times in Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions - #7102 by Salmanf1, although it’s just turned into a Facebook-like discussion on macroeconomics


There was an exceptional stretch where people got so desperate to find cheap leases we had a 900,000-post Nissan Frontier thread. :slight_smile:

It’s reverted to more “normal” recently, which means there are bright spots, and right now (with some exceptions) that’s mainly EVs.

As long as I’ve been here there’s never been a great time to lease absolutely everything out there, and that’s not going to change.


Its a matter of supply and demand dictating the price, not “dumb” people willing to pay over MSRP. If there are 2 cars on the lot and 3 people need cars immediately to either get to work or school, it means the person that doesn’t outbid the other 2 will not get a car.

In fact, most people are trying to hold on to their car for as long as possible because of this imbalance.

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Yeah, but it came pretty close at the start of the pandemic. You could get a Highlander Hybrid Platinum for ~$400/mo with inceptions at drive-off, VW Atlas SE w/tech for ~$350/mo, $4k one-pay Bolts.

Money was cheap then, yes.

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When unemployment goes up. Everyone will be hurting then, not just guys working at Walmart. That’s when market can collapse, and Fed will start dropping the rates. First, they printed trillions of dollars (giving average Joe $2000 in a span of two years, most of ‘stimulus’ money sinking in the deep pockets of you know who) and caused hyperinflation, while driving millions of mom-n-pop shop owners, especially in food industry, into bankruptcy, Then, to fight the hyperinflation they have created, they started to raise rates. As we now find out, all the lockdowns didn’t prevent anyone from getting COVID, I don’t know of a single person who didn’t get it, even those who wore triple masks sitting in the basement, worked from home and ordered grocery deliveries. So, what have we to show for all the supply-chain blockage, which just helped to boost the inflation and cost of goods that became scarce because no one was manufacturing/producing them or could move the goods around? But some people in control think we had it too good, that employment is too high, so they will keep squeezing everything up until we get back to UE rates we had during Obama years. remember those years, when 100 people with PHD degrees were competing with middle school drop-outs to get a job as a bus driver? When those times return, leases will once again be very cheap, because there will be no one left with money to buy them. But short of this gloomy, dramatic downturn of events (I already see signs of upcoming challenges, a lot of places are downsizing, because businesses are suffocating), I think: A) rates will go down eventually, no matter what. They don’t keep them this high for longer than a year or two. B) If supply channels stay open (provided we don’t get hit with another, more deadlier pandemic soon) , car makers will once again revert to offering incentives to move larger quantity of inventory. As one poster above mentioned, not all cars are in tight supply right now, and I can attest that I have closed two fantastic deals last month, it’s just not happening in high-end brand name dealerships yet.