Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

That one is now also pending purchase.

Some people love to “flex” by overspending (and telling everyone by how much)

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Well it’s no longer on hold… maybe common sense prevailed, or the bank decided that financing a used Tesla for 20k over sticker was a bad idea.

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This site is for those on the opposite end of the spectrum - we like to boast how “cheap” we are.

What we need is a www.hackedbylease.com site for the others.

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That site already kind of exists in the form of various car forums across the internet. Just look at some of the “Price paid” sections there.

A neighbor bought an Audi SQ5 from Carvana in March or April. A flatbed unloaded the car. He test drove it for like 15-20 minutes. Signed the papers. All under an hour and without him having to leave the house. I didn’t ask him how much he paid because I know he probably overpaid. This was during the Costo Audi promo and Q5e and eTrons were going for like $400/mo.

It’s r/askacarsalesman

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Well, what’s the saying? There’s a sucker born every minute? I bet it’s sold for at least $60k by the end of the weekend. Especially when the other Model 3s on the site are mostly gone.

Just for comparison, Carvana just quoted me $35.5k for my 1 week old 3 SR+ (white seats only option). I really wonder WTF they paid for the 3 that are now listing for $61k.

At these extreme prices, I wouldn’t be surprised if many of these Carvana buyers are exporting the vehicles. Have you ever tried to buy a Tesla in Russia??

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Until you dig into the financials…

  • spent 1.1B in cash on Operations just in 2021
  • spent 3x this quarter what they spent last quarter for cars
  • vehicle inventory is up from 1.4B to 1.9B

Always dig below the headline:

https://twitter.com/siyul/status/1423464053259882498?s=21

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While I totally agree with you, those statistics you posted aren’t much better than just looking at top line #’s. Full disclosure I’ve never looked at any financials for Carvana, but these are the questions that come to mind….

  • spent 1.1B in cash on Operations just in 2021
    What should it have been? Is that good or bad? Was there just a big one time hit?
  • spent 3x this quarter what they spent last quarter for cars
    Did GM % go up or down? EBITDA % was up it looks like. Is COGS growing faster than top line? How much is making its way to earnings?
  • vehicle inventory is up from 1.4B to 1.9B
    How do they value inventory on the BS? Could it be they have the same # of days, but it’s just worth more? How healthy is the BS overall? Do they capitalize any costs of reconditioning/selling?

My gut would tell me they’ll [shareholders] be left at least holding some of the bag when the dust settles.

Tell us you’re short CVNA without telling us you’re short CVNA.

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Sounds like every company and VC when it comes to “numbers” all overstated to favor themselves.

nothing new, wall street standards as usual.

Dug this out (still true)

But I’ve read through enough of their history and financials to know there is no way I would take either side of the bet with them, even if it meant some karma payback for DriveTime (whose next Board Meeting needs to take place in the vacuum of space where they belong).

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I think it will be a while before prices come down

We are in August now, with no light in sight.

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The article didn’t say it would be over in a couple of weeks. It said commitments have been made which means the end is in sight.

End in sight still likely means not back to normal for 12-18 months. Assuming no other setbacks between now and then, of course.

Delta Economy Plus would like a word.