Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

Those are called :unicorn: for a reason.

Again that’s only cuz manufacturers can’t provide them units to sell.

If manufacturer gives dealer a target cuz they only make $$ if dealer sells a new vehicle, that standing firm & power of “No” quickly finds itself on a shaky grounds.

2 Likes

Never say never… There is a glut of automakers worldwide fighting for market share and potential impending central bank doom for many Western economies staring us down in a few short years. For example, Kia/Hyundai from the bottom up approach is just crushing it in US Market Share growth since 2018.

Also the shift to EV via mandates is an earthquake for the traditional automotive global manufacturers

There will always be stale model changeovers and other factory capital cost considerations to make some leases interesting and hackable.

Will any of this impact the rest of 2021 - looks like a definite no. 2022 - into the second half of the year… who knows

3 Likes

Point is, it used to be federal reserve controlling rates and money through money emission and interbank loans.
With a new trillion from administration claiming some form of relief, aid or ‘infrastructure spending’ every other month those FR tools became irrelevant.

1 Like

Gotcha. Yes: fiscal policy is not monetary policy. Only the latter is “printing money”, the former is obligating spending (which are mechanically very different, and occasionally share a side effect or two).

2 Likes

Deals will get better but never back to the pre-Covid levels

Harry Potter Reaction GIF

Please reopen the following thread as that’s what we will be discussing from now till end of time…

4 Likes

I’m planning to lease Elantra SEL in bay area. And I’ve been asking lease quote all around.
Last week, one dealer send me a quote for $268 + 2000 down and refuse to make any change on the price. This is really a bad price for me.
And this week, there’s more dealer sending me quote. On average, the lease just increase to $368+2000 down. Most of the dealer add 2k to 3k to the selling price. It’s just crazy !!!
Why is Hyundai goes so crazy this month?!!
Is there possible to be a price drop for next month?

1 Like

supply low, demand high, things are crazy out there.

2 Likes

“Is there possibility for price drop next month?” - No.

1 Like

Federal Reserve Usd GIF by eToro

printer shredder GIF

1 Like

Assuming it’s a shredder below the printer, this is the best graphical explanation of how printing the money works in economy I have seen.

1 Like

carvana red today vroom green

Everyone should take note of this….

I typically quote a bunch of tire kickers early in the month, they price shop me and then come back bc they can’t beat my deal.

This month that is costing them $1500-$3000. In this market if you find a fair deal, sign immediately. Things will get much worse before/if they get better.

7 Likes

Hi folks, I am very new to leasing (never leased before, but have been reading and watching videos about it). I have heard talks about current market and am very worried about my choice of leasing. I have been trying to get answers from articles and videos, but mostly are either not answered or the sources are outdated. I just hope I can get some clarification.

So, is there a certain time of the year when leasing/buying prices go down quite a bit? Perhaps end of the year when new year models come out?

As far as make and models go, personally I want either Honda or Toyota just because they are reliable. My 2007 Civic Hybrid needs minimal maintenance so I kind of expect my new one to be the same. But since I am looking for leasing, does that mean I get to widen my net because I don’t need to worry about them too much due to new car warranty? I have never owned a brand new car before so kind of curious how those warranty work.

Final question, is this really a bad time to go into a lease deal? I live in bay area and I see leases on an Accord Hybrid with MSRP of $34300 is $372/month of 36m/12k, plus tax and other fee, well exceeding the “one percent” rule. Is this “one percent” rule totally outdated or it’s just not applicable right now in this kind of market?

I know I have too many questions, and thank you all for your help in advance!

The 1% rule was never applicable. It’s always been and always will be a useless way to evaluate a lease deal.

4 Likes

Yes. Your best bet is holding on to your current vehicle and waiting it out. Could be 6-12 months or more.

1 Like

Damn, it is used by so many sources…just misleading…

Is there any kind of general rule with regards to “good leasing deal”? especially for someone like me that is not really familiar with leasing at all…

Thanks for your advice… my current car is still working… Just thought I could use my new job as an opportunity to get a new car… I will probably wait around…

It is practically impossible for us to tell you what a “good” monthly payment is for your specific lease as lease programs are highly dependent on region, personal qualifications, tax rates, etc.

We always recommend the following method before you ever contact a dealership. If you do all of the work up front, you’ll have a stress free dealer experience and set yourself for success.

  1. Read Leasing 101 (EDITORIAL | LEASEHACKR) to understand how to calculate a lease payment and the variables. Monthly payment is an output, not an input!!
  2. Pick a specific vehicle that you want to target
  3. Gather the current MF, RV and incentives from Edmunds forums for your zip code
  4. Research the LH marketplace and other deals that have been made recently on your vehicle - what was their pre-incentive discount? How did their lease terms differ?
  5. Plug your numbers into the LH calculator (CALCULATOR | LEASEHACKR), and use a pre-incentive discount similar to what you have seen
  6. Create a target deal, this is what you’re trying to negotiate to. You can try different terms, selling price discount, etc. and see how your monthly payment is affected. It is also possible that different trims of your vehicle may have different MF and RV (i.e. this is very common with GM), so make sure that you look into that. Come up with a set of inputs that give you the output that you want - your desired monthly payment.

With a target price determined, you now have a deal to pursue and compare dealer offers against. More importantly, you have a solid foundation to work from.

2 Likes

None of that has applied for the past year, and won’t until inventory levels return to ”normal”. If you have to lease/buy, the best time is now. If you don’t have to lease, wait.

See also

If you do it right, your lease should always be under warranty. Some brands also include all standard maintenance during that period.

As Matt mentioned, read Leasing 101. You are going to need to do math to evaluate each lease, after getting specifics from Edmunds. A little education will go a long way in getting the best deal possible.

1 Like