Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

If you’re looking to sell it do so ASAP as you have a week before Honda stops 3rd party buyouts

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I’d have to replace it. I came close in April but the offers were around $35k. I couldn’t get the color I wanted on a new one back then. Now there is very little on lots and dealers are all at MSRP with no money from Honda. Happy with what I have.

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Can you restate this with layman’s terms? Not tracking what you mean by “captive”, or a car being “grounded” at a “captive dealer”

Captive refers to finance company owned by manufacturer (gm financial/ Chrysler capital etc) most captives have stopped allowing places like carvana and vroom to buyout the lease to allow you to cash out any positive equity you have so the only way to get out of a lease early is to sell back to brand dealer.

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Or buy it yourself and sell to whomever you want.

And, yes, that means paying tax and waiting for the title.

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In addition to Leasing 101, you may want to bookmark

You already got a refresher on captive: if you drive a lease to disposition (the end of the term, e.g. 36 months) and return it to a dealer (not sold, not traded) and leave with an odometer statement, you have grounded the lease — and unless you are leasing another of the same brand, owe the disposition fee.

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Hopefully we’re in the worst of it

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I agree with the stock rebuilding. I disagree with it happening soon. If Ford only has 1 week supply of SUVs nationally according to their leadership it’ll take months and months to build back up to a 90 day supply to be back to where we were.

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It’s been about a year now since used car prices starting increasing and every month people say “this is the peak” yet the equity opportunity endures. This experiment has shown that margin can be just as effective as volume, so why would dealerships want to return to the old way, where they had to stock massive inventories. I don’t believe we will ever return to the days where new vehicles see market depreciation of 60% in a few years, it simply doesn’t make sense in the world of modern auto manufacturing. I think the better question is, when will we start to see lease residuals adjust to reflect more accurate projected values.

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Say it aint so Joe!

No Chance That Aint Right GIF by Aurora Consulting

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Individual dealerships may prefer margin to volume, but the manufacturer will push for volume… they’re not benefitting as much from the increased margin in the dealership model.

All it takes is one high volume dealer to start playing ball again.

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In most cases, they already are.

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I think you can compare it to stock options or short selling….

Nothing fancy, just now it became relevant on car leases :crazy_face:

Seriously, how is transacting on a commodity or tangible good - where it actually changes hands - at all like a contract for a share of a publicly traded company? There is oodles of moral hazard in play, but beyond that :thinking:

That’s like calling an electronic store of value - based only on what someone else will pay for it - a currency.

@jeisensc - you are not selling someone’s property.

You have a contract with the leasing company to buy out your car at a predetermined price.

That is an option you own by contract.

You are selling that option to buy the car to someone else.

Plain and simple.

You always could have done that.
The thing is that that option was usually worthless, until now…

Yes

Nope :x::x::x:

Solid effort though

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Can you subtanuate your statement?
Perhaps I’m missing something

How is this different from buying out your lease and then immediately turning around and selling it to somebody else?

If I have to explain the difference between any financial instrument (designed to have as many counterparties as a Times Square toilet), and a property contract, we aren’t having the same conversation.

It wasn’t designed that way, but certainly has the same mechanics.

An option is an option. A financial instrument option on stock and commodities just have better liquidity.

Btw, stock and stock options also considered property you own…

our views are clearly different, but I would not vilify the other side that doesn’t share your view

Do stock options explicitly say that you can’t sell them to anyone else?

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