Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

Nobody racked up the losses she did in 2021

How you play that portfolio and end the year down 20 points is a bad luck miracle.


F!@* Him!

Maybe Billy Ray Valentine has the answers to this post…or at least knows where to get a GI Joe with a Kung-Fu grip…

The insanity seems to be somewhat coming off the peak…

My personal data point for taco from vroom only

10/21 - 40k
1/22 - 37 k

Toyota inventory has been getting better. I have some tacos at 500 off msrp out west.

So you can get a new one for as much as used now via the online retailers. No brainer


Peak insanity in leasing won’t be reached until people stop gaslighting these garbage deals as great ones.

$700+ effective for a friggin 530i is apparently “too good to be true”


At best this maybe a dip, but that’s not unusual for January. Wait until the tax returns starting flowing.


Yeah i saw that in your thread …

That’s some good sign…


Thought your were NE? What is ‘out west’? Cali, Idaho, Colorado?

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I have dealers on the west coast at msrp and 500 off Tacoma. With inventory shortages I picked up some more dealers to offer more for my clients. Shipping from the east coast is getting expensive.

Any of those states would work. Shipping is cheaper then east coast to get them there.


As @mattevan would say,

capital attracts capital


Don’t think peak insanity is over yet. Have a ways to go…

Anyone watch the Mecum auctions this week?

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Any particular data point or it’s your personal opinion?

Don’t see a let down in demand, as of right now. That’s my data point. And, dealers are not wanting to let go of their low stock of new vehicles unless you’re dumb enough to pay the extra markups. And, they are paying crazy amounts for used ones

Silly demand for used high end cars, go watch the auction and tell me the peak insanity level isn’t climbing. Don’t need no stinking charts and supposed expert opinions. Keep your eyes open, that’s all that’s needed.

Hey folks,

Did you see any signal that market is getting any better or in the near future? Have been shopping for a while but I am not in “need it now” scenario.

Thanks for sharing.

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I can’t speak for the demand side of the equation, but I can comment on the supply side. I work in supply chain for automotive and high tech. The chip and other supply shortages were showing signs of stability, meaning things weren’t getting worse, until Omicron hit. There are multiple cities/provinces in China under shutdown right now that are impacting chip supply again. This will delay the fragile recovery that was underway.

The hundreds of billions of investment in semiconductor capacity will take another 12-24 months to come online. Even then, it will impact the higher end nodes rather than the legacy nodes that the automotive industry uses. My guess is that things will limp along as-is until the 2nd half of '22 and then we might see a little relief. Barring any other disasters, things will improve in early 2023.


Good point.

TSMC is building a 12 billion dollar plant here in Phoenix. My pal is a production manager for chip fab at Intel and TSMC is hiring up people; however, the first local recruits need to go to Taiwan for 18 months or so, he said. The ‘2nd wave’ of hiring will be people that will be more local that don’t need to travel.

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Plus, the equipment they need have 18 month lead time to manufacture. The irony is ASML, a key manufacturer of lithography equipment, doesn’t have enough chips to produce all the equipment on order.


I called a few dealers across the country regarding a 2017 panamera and not a single one was willing to budge even a few dollars…all gave the standard “obviously we price our cars to what the market is paying…and clearly thats why you called…”

Now that I have my data points…I will keep an eye out for the next 6-12 months and decide.

I think the next hurdle is going to be the labor issues due to covid & in general.

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