Sub-prime loaners are the worst. Destroying more lives than they help. I don’t always buy the “offering products to individuals who wouldn’t otherwise have access to it” kind of justification, not when you expect to repo 30 to 40 percent of collateral.
From the sounds of it she’ll be way over, I think she’s close to already hitting the contracted miles
The lease goes to 2020, and it’s a payment issue. From a total out of pocket/cash flow stand point, plus being over miles at the end, $400/mo sounds allot better than $580 plus mileage fees, but that’s just my opinion.
The question is by how much will she be over projecting out to lease end?
So why would you possibly do another lease just to repeat the same experience and have the same issues at the end of the next one. Stop making the same mistakes. You are already paying for prior negative equity, stop the cycle.
Ride the lease out, minimize mileage as much as possible, and buy a car. Don’t buy a used BMW again. Honda, Acura, Toyota, Lexus. Holds value and is reliable.
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Agree with this sentiment. Unfortunately… it seems the most emotionally engaging cars to drive are the least reliable/value in the market. Wish it weren’t this way, but it is what it is.
The reason is engineering and economy of scale.
For example, BMW tunes their suspensions to have excellent turn-in and handling characteristics at the expense of bushing life. You’d be lucky to get 60k out of 5 series front compliance bushings. The Japanese would never, ever prioritize handling over reliability even on a sports car let alone a family sedan. 220k miles on the front compliance bushings of our 4500lb Odyssey and they’re just starting to crack. Just one example of many.
And parts and repair costs are dirt cheap on a CRV that sells 400k/yr. Not so much on a lower volume luxury brand car which was probably not engineered to be inexpensively serviceable. I would spend less on maintenance on a 250k mile CRV than I would on a 50k mile X3. That’s why I love Acura and Lexus (and hopefully Genesis if they keep it up) - they have enough common components with “normal” cars that make parts cost pretty reasonable except in some rare cases, and they’re fairly easy to work on. The Japanese and American companies are very good at ensuring cars can be serviced relatively easily. In der Fatherland, it is not a priority. Check out how to replace the rear struts on an E39 5 series. Step 1: remove headliner. You have to take the entire interior apart to access them. A two hour job on 99% of cars. No thanks!
/rant
I’ve ridden in Toyota’s and Honda’s with 200k, I wouldn’t call it an enjoyable experience. I’d rather lease something cheap.
That wasn’t my point at all and it’s quite the straw man argument to compare the driveability of a brand new car to a used one with 200k miles which was probably not maintained properly. No one would ever support the opposite of what you just said. Just like I would “rather” own an S-Class than my Accord. But FWIW, our Ody drives far better and is much more pleasant than our 2016 Silverado lease.
The question was why “engaging” cars to drive cost so much to maintain and depreciate like crazy due to that, in reference to the OP starting this whole mess by being way upside down on a used 3 series. The answer is that the “engagement” is intentionally engineered into the vehicle at the expense of long term reliability and maintenance costs. BMW designs for favorable magazine reviews, Toyota designs for long term ownership. Just is what it is.
So what’s your point, in two sentences or less
As a parent of two small children, I wholly recognize when conversations become too complex for others to comprehend - so, nevermind 
I’m just trying to offer a solution, not just say you made a terrible mistake and you shouldn’t have done it, and oh you should buy a Honda because they never break down and run for million miles. Even maintained properly, any car can have a major repair, although statistically you’re better off in a Japanese make.
So many moving parts to this. I think people saying to buy a car instead of lease one are getting lost in the numbers. The issue here isn’t leasing, it’s rolling negative equity into things.
If you discount the negative equity and pretend this was an ok lease, at current rate, she will be over miles by 11k at lease turn in. At the posted 15 cents a mile, that’s $1650. Big whoop. Are there really used cars out there that regularly require less than $1700 in maintenance over four years of heavy driving?
In my opinion, the best solution here is to ride this lease out to the end, and plan to owe $2000 at turn in (mileage + disposition). Otherwise, when you break it all down, what you’re doing is paying 7k over another 3ish years to payback the 2k. You would literally be better off putting that 2k on a credit card.
I 100% agree. There is no excuse to make the same mistake twice.
$1700 is a ton of maintenance and repairs. The answer is yes. I drive 30k/yr and I’ve never had a financed vehicle that I’ve put $1700 total into.
Granted - I don’t buy BMW’s and service them at the BMW dealer
I would say you are lucky then. Though maybe it’s a regional thing?
I was genuinely curious, so I checked out out a few cars on edmunds true cost to own, since they break it down into categories. Even the well regarded Honda Accord lists ~1800 for combined maintenance and repairs for year 5 alone.
It turns out at the dealership today said they will give me $25,000 for the current Outback I drive and they said $30,954 is my buyout. Strange because according to the Subaru Chase site my buyout is $32887. I didn’t say anything, but why would they have a different number? They looked things up with my social. Anyways according to the dealership I must be $5954 underwater. So I would be spreading that out over 36 months at $165 per month. I know I have to pay for my past stupidity but just trying to figure out when and how is best.
I agree with what you said about making the same mistake twice not being excusable. However, does it change anything that I just found out that service is no longer covered and I have something due for over $200 coming up that I have to pay for out of pocket too. I always liked that I don’t have to pay for service during a lease, but in this one I will have to apparently from now on. I’ve had this car since November 2016. Plus the tipping point for me was that I screwed up the door. Unfortunatley my 15 month old daughter got locked in the car a few days ago. I stupidly shut the door when she had the keys in her hand and as soon as I shut the door she clicked the button and locked herself in. While I waited for the police to come I had friendly guys from next door try to break in to the car and there is some damage which now I’ll have to pay for out of pocket. My deductible is $500. So long story short I thought , maybe it is time to just get rid of this car, get into a new one with service included (is it still included in new Subaru leases I hope?) and not have to pay for the damage as well. Does that change anything or is it still stupid to get into lease now?
Thanks everyone for your advice. I appreciate it.
I think the consensus here is pretty straight forward… Pay the maintenance out of pocket and pay the mileage fees at lease end. Keep the car. Realistically you’ll be spending more than 165 a month extra due to negative equity because you’ll be paying interest on it.
Just keep the car and ride it out, you’re not going to be in a better financial situation by dumping it.
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So how much is the new lease with the negative equity?
Subaru leases never included free service. That must have been a dealer promotion. You really want to spend $165 more a month over 3 years just because you want “free” service. That’s ridiculous and devoid of all logic. Ride the lease out and deal with the over mileage and having to pay for service. You don’t have to have it done at the dealer so it would cost nowhere near $200.
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