Toyota Reportedly redeveloping its entire EV strategy?

Off-Ramp EV
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Lazy to post a proper link instead of M1.

Before
-Toyota had an EV rollout day back in Dec 21. Legit showcased their entire future
-Up until then the idea was one platform E-TNGA, one production line for both HEV/PHEV/EV
-2030 Lexus would go full electric
-New battery factory launches
-Possible Panasonic Battery Takeover bid

Now
-Toyota vastly underestimated how soon EVs are becoming in demand
-Panasonic bid went sour.
-E-TNGA their dedicated platform might be axed or heavily refined
-Have about a year before their planning committee decides what is finalized

I have a few hunches on what might be going on behind the scenes, and why Toyota revealed their entire
future product schedule last year and this might be one of those theories. Its interesting when Toyota pivots, because it looks like a 100 car freight train decided to hit the brakes. Yikes

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That preview day always read to me like a student showcase of design studies rather than a real “here are all the things we are actually making”.

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That preview day is suppose to feel and read like a concept car, but 2 things:

  1. Historically speaking alot of car companies have forgone the concept car strategy and straight up just use it a soft launch as part of their launch schedule. TMC products concepts end up being quite close to the real thing.

  2. So far that preview rollout has been spot on, literally concept to final production unit.

I wonder though can Toyota, switch gears this rapidly? Mfg I would wager yes, battery availability Im not too sure, especially with their conservative battery degradation/QC targets.

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Plus, the front wheels falling off the BZ4x’s didn’t help. Apparently, they stopped sales to figure out what was the problem, now back on sale.

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Select markets like Japan, got some incentives thrown in for effected customers, which I hear extend to unaffected customers as well.

I havent seen a non-blessed Z4x here though.

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When they say never buy a new model the first year, you never expect the wheels to just fall off!

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Exactly, so much for the “halo effect” of Toyota quality.

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Toyota doesnt seem as unaffected as they once were. I have heard of 4Rs, the most reliable vehicle nameplate on the planet, Made in Japan alongside GX460s, have issues off the dealer lot. Tundras needing new turbo gear, transmission replacements.

The bz4x was interesting as well, suppliers everywhere seem to be dropping the ball hard.

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Toyota had an EV strategy?

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It is called the ‘kicking and screaming’ strategy. They wanted to do nothing to stay on top.

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Innovator’s Dilemma. I don’t think Toyota took EVs seriously. Now nearly every major manufacturer EXCEPT Toyota and the rest of the Japanese carmakers have a desirable EV on the market.

I suspect Toyota’s mindset of continuous improvement and focusing on supply chain meant that they missed the entire market shifting. When you think about it we have the following on the road or about to launch

Ford - Mach-E, F150 Lightning
GM - Bolt, Lyric, Blazer, Silverado, Equinox
VW/Audi/Porsche - ID.4, Q4e, Taycan, etc.
BMW: iX, i4, NeueKlasse EV platform
Hyundai/Kia: EV6, Ioniq 5, long pipeline
Tesla

Nearly every one of the vehicles above is desirable in that they are vehicles people want to drive regardless of being an EV. Then you have Toyota/Honda/Mazda who were asleep at the wheel. Think about how there isn’t a single desirable Japanese EV. Like they literally didn’t see this coming.

Toyota is probably scrambling, but a year is a long time to figure things out. Tesla’s been on the market for over a decade, how could Toyota not have had plans to create something comparable or competitive to Tesla (even if they never ended up building it). I really think Toyota thought this was a fad and don’t have anything truly competitive in their pipeline hence the strategy shift. I’m also betting it’s going to be too little too late. In general, Toyota seems to have lost their innovative edge. The Lexus lineup is pretty tired/boring, nothing super-exciting at Toyota either except maybe the GR Corolla. They were happy to produce RAV4s/Highlanders all day long. Same tired products, same tired powertrains.

Will be interesting to see how they react, but considering it seems like some gargantuan task for Toyota to add a frickin plug to their existing hybrids (and then can’t produce enough) while Tesla is thinking about mineral rights, I really don’t see Toyota being competitive in this space for a LONG time.

The BZ4x or whatever is a solid example. While it’s selling, it’s pretty crappy overall compared to the competition, looks frumpy, charges slow, no one pedal driving. Great example of how out of touch they are.

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They’re poised to become the next Sears or Blockbuster at this rate.

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bz4x

  1. Who let them launch with that stupid name. RAV4e or something generic would have been 100x better
  2. Toyota, the supposed “most reliable” manufacturer launched a vehicle where the wheels fell off. Then took 3 months to figure out why. I’m not even buying the story that the wheels were slightly defective and small vibrations caused the lugnuts to come loose. Seriously?!?
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Was thinking Montgomery Wards, but that’s aging myself.

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Which of the vehicles showcased have made it to production?

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BZ3, Crown variants in the back.
On the Lexus side NX, RX.

If the rest are set to be on the chopping block, thats a lot of product dev wasted…

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A friend of mine which retired last year from Toyota power train engineering department always hated and still does hate electric powertrains. Maybe that is/was the consensus. When I ask him, he won’t comment on it.

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With GM moving towards the Ultium platform I wouldn’t be entirely against some kind of venture with Toyota as a stopgap for them. A Bolt based Toyota EV would be considerably better and probably sell more than anything they are producing right now, or the near future in that segment. Imagine how well the Bolt would have sold if it was initially a Toyota product versus having to overcome the “stigma” of being a GM product?

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This is what Honda is doing

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Yeah, I believe theirs is Ultium based, no? I doubt they could pull that off at this point since there is probably some exclusivity to that partnership but what about the Bolt platform? It’s outdated but it would probably be relatively cheap to license or purchase if GM is truly done with it. It would at least give you something to sell in the meantime that does the “everyday” EV thing pretty well.