The Credit Thread

Ok just wanted to make sure it was standard. Thank you

The dealer always pulls first to determine eligibility and what credit products (loans/leases) you are eligible for. When leasing, the captive will pull again when they finalize approval. With Volvo mine were hours apart, with Mazda/Chase and Subaru/Chase it was a couple days (delay is most often the dealer packaging and sending to funding).

As mentioned previously, the second pull doesn’t affect your credit score.

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Welp:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-23/intuit-nears-deal-to-buy-credit-karma-for-about-7-billion-wsj

(Queues up The Slim Shady LP)

“cause this is what happens when bad meets evil”…

We tried TurboTax for the first time this year instead of going to our CPA.

Good lord, what a mess.

They might as well pair up with a company that gives away credit skores no one actually uses to evaluate creditworthiness.

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Not to mention

They have so much data on so many Americans, and no idea how to productize any of it. As I told someone this week, if they called me for a gig it would go straight to voicemail - I know so many talented consultants who have tried to help them over the years, they are beyond help.

Given their history with Mint, they will probably put Credit Karma in a supply closet and find it again in 5 years. Some companies just don’t deserve enough cash to buy nice things.

Several months ago I helped a friend/former employee of mine prep for an interview there. It was more like an inquisition. Speaks volumes about the culture.

She didn’t get the job, which was a blessing, since shortly thereafter she found a place that valued smart people with skills.

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It’s a big company, but I’ve met a few people who worked in the Bay Area and lots of formers in SoCal - she dodged a bullet. Glad she found a better fit.

From what I understand, it’s textbook Conway’s law:

Which would have been my first guess after using any of their products.

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Lol you’ve never been anyone’s boss. You cant even decide if you live in San Diego or Ohio…

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He meant his kid’s babysitter :grin:

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I don’t have to.

:face_vomiting:

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Average US credit score is up

Data from Experian, they switched from Vantage to FICO last year, but my guess is it’s FICO v2 (doesn’t say in article).

I have some questions regarding auto loans and leases I wanted to see if any up to date informed folks on here can help me with.
Back in my old less frugal old days I used to almost always carry 2 auto loans at the same time and dealers would always tell me I could only have 2 open auto loans and banks just wouldn’t approve a 3rd. Is there any truth to that currently?
The reason I ask is this: My wife is current the lone lessee on 1 vehicle and co-signer on a 2nd vehicle loan. I want to know if (pending credit and DTI etc) she can lease a 2nd vehicle hence having 2 leases and 1 co-signed loan? Fwiw the 1st lease had 2 payments remaining and we just made those final 2 payments and it will be getting returned to GM following an Autovin inspection. I called GM after we made the final 2 payments and they said the lease won’t show paid or closed for up to 90 days as they inspect the vehicle and bill us for wear/tear/mileage. Does that sound right, the lease remains open even if final payment is made?
Thanks for any info and feedback. I don’t want to run her credit on the next lease if it’s a moot point.
Mark

Well if you’re a hacker you can have at least 4 at one time because the payments are so low it’s like having 2 normal leases on your credit! If your score is high and you have the DTI to take on another lease it doesn’t matter. I’ve had four going with no issues, but they were all under $300/mo and one went away shortly after I leased the fourth car.

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Depends on credit score, income, debt obligations, etc. No simple answer. I have had 4-5 car loan or leases at one time when I owned a business. Too many factors for a yes or no answer.

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“Depends” is the correct answer. There is no “number of cars” limit. If you qualify, you qualify. If your DTI can carry it and score is good.

If one of those leases was grounded and you have OD statement and/or letter from the captive, that might be all they need if the credit and income support it.

When you apply using their credit app: sometimes it automatically approves, sometimes it gets kicked to an analyst for approval, and sometimes it auto declines. I suspect your situation would just get kicked to a human for review. But F&I facilities all of that for you, and might try and bump the rate even though it doesn’t merit that.

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Thanks for the insight.
You hit on what was going to be my next question. Without getting too deep into the weeds I wanted to follow up with this (even though I don’t think it will be an issue) If DTI was tight or over their limits with all 3 vehicles technically showing up; do you believe proof of lease “one” being paid off would likely suffice to open up that DTI?
Thanks a ton.
Mark

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I used my Magic 8 Ball :man_shrugging:t2:

You’re in a common situation, as long as you have proof it’s grounded and bring it with you, a decent F&I manager can get an approval if it’s in guidance (DTI isn’t too high) and doesn’t automatically approve.

When you find the next lease, negotiate the deal before you get to dealer as recommended, make sure once it’s good in writing that you fill out the online credit app before you leave for the dealership, and try not to do this on a busy Fri/Sat/Sun. You want them to have a few minutes to look at it and deal with calling approvals during normal hours, ideally not when they are 5 deep each and it’s 8pm on a weekend.

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I was wildly speculating to myself what impact this mass event will have to credit scores, and the borrowing power of people in a post-COVID world where interest rates are expected to be low (in the short run, until they become anything but). Maybe I should have kept this to myself, but I’m curious who else is starting to run numbers?

I was refreshing myself on the models, and what information is in public domain (vs speculation, regression, or anything that might not be subject to nda)

Regardless of the FICOÂŽ Score version, the keys to obtaining favorable FICO Scores remain the same:

  • Make payments on time
  • Keep credit card balances low
  • Open new credit accounts only when needed

What’s different in V8 vs V2

Keeping credit card balances low can help maintain or improve the score.

  • Isolated late payments
    If a lender reports to the credit bureau that you were at least 30 days late with your payment, it will likely result in a loss of points within all FICOÂŽ Score versions. If the late payment is an isolated event and other accounts are in good standing, FICO Score 8 is more forgiving compared to previous FICO Score versions.

However, if the credit report shows numerous late payments, the reverse is true and the FICOÂŽScore 8 will likely lose more points as compared to previous FICO Score versions.

So in the currently published version of the model, unless they roll out some kind of extreme change, which there are unlikely to do, anyone with two or more late pays is going to start losing points. While many banks and many car lenders are offering deferral’s, there are still a number of store cards and branded credit cards that probably won’t and will still report these late.

We will probably need 2 to 4 weeks of new unemployment data minimum to start modeling how many people might fall into this category, but I’m speculating about whether the model might skew as the distribution of credit scores changes drastically in a very short time.

Not the latest source but a quick illustration:

If you look at the distribution from 700 to 749, 750 to 799, 800 - 850: I could see any of those dropping by 20 to 50%, and if by some chance all of them dropped that much she would go from it being 40% of the population with the last hundred points of credit score to possibly 15 or 20%. If the distribution skew significantly, creditors will need to change their guidance or end up lending less money.

Also consider that many leasing companies price A-tier around a 720, which falls somewhere between 43 and 60% of the population. So more than 1/2 of adults with credit are eligible for A-tier.

So there are at least a few points:

  • I don’t see anything in the most widely used credit scoring model that won’t penalize people for 2+ late pays. I also don’t expect FICO to change the current model. I also don’t think semantics in the model are the difference between hard times and financial ruin in the wake of hard times. To that end, people who default early will benefit least from low rates before they inevitably shoot up.
  • credit scores will likely drop as a result of covid-19. how many, and by what %, hard to project yet. Deferments on bigger ticket loans (house/car) will likely help to reduce the number of late pays and score drops.
  • risk is going to be more difficult to price, which I think will cause lease portfolio managers to pull back the volume of leases they offer (how? TBD: on fewer models? By reducing incentives?)
  • I think all of this will see production return slowly (when it does) and every car company cut their projections by 10%+, meaning record car sales years are going to be a memory for a while.

We have a new normal coming in hot.

Edit: updated with this morning’s DOL unemployment chart

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The FICO algorithms are designed to measure default risk. Late payments simply mean that the consumer wasn’t equipped to meet existing credit obligations. There is no “one free 30-day late” in the FICO 8. Re-read what you posted. :slight_smile:

Credit scores do not drop because of pandemics. They drop for people who stop paying their bills on time.

I don’t think risk is meaningfully more difficult to price, but I do believe that underwriting will become more rigorous.

No more getting away with stating last year’s employment income on a lease application when you’re currently unemployed, because you’ll need to bring pay stubs.

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