The Coming Collapse In U.S. Auto Sales

Automobiles are not moving off the parking lot.

That’s according to an industry report that showed a sharp decline in auto sales across all auto makers—see table. Meanwhile industry inventories have been climbing up from an average of 55 days back in April of 2015 to 70 days last month.

Coming after months of sluggish sales and generous incentives, the big drop in April sales could be a sign of an impending collapse which could parallel that of 2008-9.

There’s a compelling reason for that: pent down demand, which for years has been “stealing” sales from the future.

Now the future has arrived and pent down demand is bad for auto makers, their investors and the economy as a whole.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/05/03/the-coming-collapse-in-us-auto-sales/#6b33ea061660

So how can we profit off this declining sales? Does that mean that people will be selling there cars cheaper?

You can always short equities that are auto related.

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Spot on Alex!

The only thing that could possible turn this around would be massive Tax cut in September. If that does not happen, I expect a huge drop off in the Fall.

Explain further Alex please

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Selling something you don’t own (if stock goes up- you will lose money because you need to buy back the stock in the future to recover what you sold off)- easy way to put it.

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Forbes is garbage IMO.

SUV and Truck sales are still booming - it’s the car segment that has slowed down.

If you want a auto collapse to watch, check out the average loan length today vs 3 years ago.

5 year vs 7 year.

That’s taking a lot of people out of the market.

I think we got more room to go. When people reach their limit with negative equity that they cannot roll it over, we might be at edge of the cliff.

Sales are projected to be 17 million units in the US this year. That’s something like the 4th or 5th best year ever. Yes sales just may be weaker than last year but by many measures it will be a pretty good year. And yet the talk is of looming disaster.

Trouble would really happen with us sales of around 14 million units or less. But were not there yet.

@ 14 millions sales, one of the companies would file bankruptcy.

It’s unlikely a dip like that would be an even split.

Ironically, FCA, the mostly “likely” to fail is surging with the SUV and truck sales.

Yep.

5 year loans w/ only taxes down (on a prime loan) usually hit principle in 3.5 years. The average customer is turning over their vehicle in 4-5 years.

What happens when someone on an 84 month (7 year) loan tries to do the same thing? That $1000 or so in negative equity just became a whole lot bigger.

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We are in a sorry state of economy if 18% drop can do one of them in, I know it’s a huge drop that hopefully not happening, but pretty much depicts how shaky everything is at the moment. FCA is and was one for decades to be failing and probably will anyway.

FCA will be sold off to either Porche, Tata or something Chinese.

Their market cap in North America is too big to ignore.

The hedge fund that owns them (EXOR), which is run by the same family that founded FIAT, wants out of the auto world from what I can tell.

Just my tea leaf reading.

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