Shortages caused by US Trade Policy

I can’t speak for the rest of @community_moderators, but there are 2 posts here that I personally think skirt @jeisensc request for no politics.

I think that additional political comments should result in those 2 comments and all subsequent political comments being landfilled. JMHO.

Let’s try to keep this 5th attempt at a car-related related economics discussion “clean.”

TIA.

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You’re not seeing an upswing in sales? My volume is def up close to 50% and most mention tariffs. Most also saying they were planning to buy summer fall but buying now instead. Toyota maybe has a little more fear

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People are confused. Many of my friends with good incomes/jobs are thinking they should buy/lease early in case tariffs ruin things for a couple years. That said, those same people are also saying they may go into hunker-down/savings mode too because job market looking like it will become a bit unpredictable. I think its a case by case basis, for buyers and sellers, right now, with neither knowing exactly what to do.

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The great YOLO debate.

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A post was merged into an existing topic: Off-Topic Landfill 6

that’s not what he said - he said dealers aren’t busy, which is true. I’m incredibly busy and even turning people away, but i also can offer both a price and an experience that people value. Dealers are sitting around trying to clobber people again. I’ll give you an example - between my NJ volvo dealers, i have nearly 2,000 cars i can sell. Those stores COMBINED are around 100 TOTAL units sold this month, as per volvo’s back-end system. Yes, they’re not punched up for the month, but that’s pretty still pretty glaring. i assure you, when volvo pulls rebates, they’re not going to be busier, all of a sudden.

Toyota is a bit different because it’s already under-supplied and is more of a purchase brand, so tariffs would impact those buyers more than a lease brand would. Incidentally, my lexus dealer has crickets right now. Artificially low inventory just became even lower.

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And unfortunately having a good income/job means jack shit if you don’t know what to do with it. If you’re going into “savings mode” in an environment like we are currently in… could it be argued that it is possibly already too late? The nest egg should already exist… whether we are simply living our glory days or the potential doomsday is around the current.lol

Lets Go GIF

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A post was merged into an existing topic: Off-Topic Landfill 6

I’ve been trying to negotiate a 2023 CPO BMW for two weeks with a dealer. It’s been impossible as they have raised their asking price once already. Used car prices are ramping up quickly.

A small excerpt from him during negotiation “Economy has been in a downward spiral since Covid, yet few sections of the economy stated significant losses. Granted the increase in the daily process of every day has helped companies cover and continue their bottom line, people are still spending money. No one has said they will stop eating omelets even though prices continue to rise.”

Could this be from folks dumping luxury and trying to pick-up lower cost vehicles?

This is more like the dealers buying up the inventory anticipating a run on lower cost vehicles. A massive spread has opened up between wholesale and retail at the bottom end. Here is an example-

Price over past 30 days greater then 6 months ago, even though average mileage has increased by 25K. The spread between wholesale and retail is more than 2x. Will follow this one onto the block tomorrow, but I predict it will sell at that 1.5x to 2x Adj MMR range I’ve been seeing.

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That’s good information. What about 40-60k cars? Are those stalling or losing interest in comparison? Dealers going out of their way to build inventory at the bare entry level sends some interesting messages.

PS… why is this thread throttled?

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The more people are doing this, the worse it bodes for Q4 and into 2026, potentially a double whammy of the following sets of buyers sitting out

  1. People who front loaded their purchase and bought now instead
  2. People whose job/income levels haven’t recovered

We haven’t even begun to discuss the other potentially massive shoe to drop: tighter lending standards, which spiraled with job losses during the financial crisis.

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questions/predictions for you smart folks: I am potentially going to be in a situation where I do need a pick up truck. I can definitely wait till winter months, given what you guys are seeing (again impossible to guess with 100% accuracy and I understand this), okay to just sit tight for now?

  1. be more precise about “a truck” - new/used, lease/buy, size/towing capacity, brand constraints
  2. when you answer that, Build a Poll in your post so people can vote with their opinions and not just reply

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At least for leasing, I feel like there’s always an “ok” truck lease in the marketplace that you could scoop up. This is assuming you’re not looking for <$500/mo or picky about brand, trim, drivetrain, etc.

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Looking to purchase a used truck–similar to ram 1500 (would most likely look at the limited trim). 50-60k budget. Not a rush to purchase currently but ideally would like to have it before winter time.
  • Get it Now
  • Get it Later
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@jeisensc Thank you :slight_smile:
@TheAvia7or would definitely purchase as the family would benefit from one long term and I can easily put on 15-20k miles/year on it

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That’s likely when the rate cuts will come…

The basis for “daily” volume is likely either pre-tariff or even worse, inflated March number. Wait for it and to adjust for new demand dump reality.

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