sooo those $5k over list highlanders are actually a deal now.
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willing to bet ATP won’t change post shortage
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but “inflation is transitory”
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That article shows the forecast for this year was still at 2018 levels, when the US sold 18M units. We’re on track to sell 13M at best.
Certainly not good news, but this seems like a forecast trying to catch reality, 2 weeks before Q4 starts. 
I think the number of flooded cars needing replacement is the bigger question still.
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Considering all the changes over the past year and a half, I would be curious to see how many are actually going to be replaced vs how many took that as a “blessing” to get out of the lease or loan and will just take insurance payouts.
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That would be a very big win for everyone. And they might, for a month or two…
If we have to start rationing new cars, we will just have to put everyone who bought/leased in 2020 in a line, everyone who bought/leased in 2021 behind them, multiple transactors behind them, and finally flippers at the very-very back.
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Inflation may or may not be transitory. What isn’t transitory is the absence of millions of cheap cars that American automakers used to sell annually from the average transaction cost. The departure of the vast majority of small/cheap cars from the market over the past few years (Fit, Fiesta, Dart, Cruze etc…) was of course gonna skew average price up. These small cheap cars represented millions of sales only a few years ago.
Sure, some small percentage. Maybe higher in NYC. But most Americans need a car and can’t do without for any length of time. Payouts might be higher but for people with older cars they are gonna be in a world of hurt when they enter either the new or used market.
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At least dude has a clean shirt, still needs a shave and a haircut, and glasses that fit.
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I bet the owner of that Discovery in the photo is still doing cartwheels.
Bro, I am actually discounting Highlanders
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$500 off with a 60bps bump.
Doesnt count
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Better than above MSRP
Who cares about 60 bps 
FWIW, I am a DMV contractor in North Carolina. Our dealer business has evaporated over the past 3 weeks. I don’t know how many will survive.
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Dealerships will be ok.
- Almost all made a lot of money over the past 3-6 months.
- They all have service departments that are still operating and that were always one of the maim profit engines.
- Dealerships can get pretty lean as we saw at the beginning of Covid. Even if they don’t lay people off, salesman don’t make much money if they aren’t selling cars.
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Yes, I will clarify that I don’t know how many of the used car dealerships will survive. Like you said, new car dealers will be OK.
Also how many people are going to get screwed over by their insurance company? Lots of people will take a check and not research how inflated their used car actually is until they go to buy a new one. Too late. I’ve seen this about 10 times in the last few weeks. Most people don’t even know there’s a car shortage until they try and replace that $275 Tacoma or $225 corolla that flooded.
I learned long ago that the average consumer should hire and adjuster to negotiate on their behalf. Insurance is a colossal Ponzi scheme that thrives off uneducated consumers, similar to many of America’s “circle jerk” of consumer services. Every year or so you should be switching insurance companies to get the best rates, but they all price fix so it doesn’t save nearly as much as it should for drivers without accidents.
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Yes. That 225 dollar Corolla doesn’t exist anymore.
No one is extending $30k worth it credit on something that can easily be stolen or wrecked without some protection. Insurance is an unavoidable necessity in the modern world and has been since Lloyd’s of London opened. Now Americans certainly get screwed by insurance because they don’t understand it My job deals with insurance and taxes frequently. I am not sure which one Americans understand less the idea of a marginal tax rate or the concept of an insurance company.
I totally understand the necessity. But along with state mandated insurance minimums the corporation will always take advantage. As much as we like to regulate and say how that protects the consumer, I don’t see much protection besides consumers protecting themselves from predators. Double edged sword. This is high school level finance/economics that is never taught in public education. There’s a reason for that…
It always comes down to a fool and his money are easily parted…
I’m digressing into free markets of which we’re certainly not.