Investment-wise, I’m a Boglehead. Target date 2045, max out my 457 plan from work as I’m able including some matching funds. No market timing here, index funds and chill.
Some of the posts in this thread are highly suggestive of cut-and-paste AI responses. As a reminder, the forum discourages simply cutting and pasting AI content:
https://forum.leasehackr.com/guidelines
Further content that seems mainly AI generated and that is flagged will be hidden.
Thanks.
#AISlop
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We clocked you on the OP by your approach to the EV9 transaction. I think the point was depreciation != opportunity cost, and not everyone includes opportunity cost in their calculus.
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I’ll translate to BH: LadyGeek isn’t here cleanup after AI slop - please try to limit it so the community doesn’t have to flag it
Enjoy your EV9 and come back in 48 months with ACV/MMR to compare. Long-timers here know that is as much of of a thing as letting multiple strangers spring-clean your portfolio.
That would depend on the RV and prevailing retail sale prices. So impossible to make a categorical decision like that.
I’ve already flipped one EV for positive equity this year. I could monetize the other if I wanted to. If I had the time and inclination there are lease transfers that are not compelling for their monthly payments but are for the RV or current buyout.
Sure, but the discussion here is on the exact same model/trim level.
@z0lt3c and @DailyDriven - you all seem more familiar than me so deference aplenty here, but why is the focus on the wholesale cost when that’s not something that would be available to me if I were just buying a used model after returning my lease? Or as @jeisensc suggested, the actual cash value or Manheim Market Report … these are how dealers figure wholesale values / cost of used cars, right? Just more apples to apples to compare with the RV? If so … why?
Forgive me but this is only my second lease and I just don’t know the connection yet (and I’m afraid to ask Claude at this point). As a consumer don’t I just compare when I should pay off the RV of my lease at the end vs. what I could buy the same or similar car for (e.g., whatever the market offers me which isn’t the wholesale pricing)?
I realize this is a naive question for a newbie
It’s not that hard to buy at wholesale, there are many wholesalers in CA looking for clients. A reasonable assumption is you can buy one-time at wholesale plus 4.5% in fees.
The MMR is effectively the wholesale price. If you go and trade your car into a dealer a good target is MMR minus $2000. To get more than that, you would need to sell private party which can be hit or miss and makes it much harder to capitalize on tax benefits. To expect you can sell a car for full retail is not realistic.
This reads like a question “what are the benefits of leasing?” Well for one, with a lease you are typically only paying tax on your payment (depending on state). This is often much less than the tax you would pay on a traditional purchase. You are also insulated from market corrections, for example when the next-generation EV9 comes out the previous model depreciation will accelerate. Most of the time a subvented MF on a lease is lower than the interest rate on a purchase, and over a short period, that means rent charge is less then total interest. A lease is usually a better tax write-off versus a purchase.
Unless you are buying out in cash, your just trading rent charge for interest. But the way you’ve structured your lease, makes it a very bad candidate to keep (inflated MF, 48mo term). At this point you are pot committed to an early buyout.
100% what @z0lt3c said in the post above.
My reference to MMR, wholesale, etc. was with regard to your projection of a 2 year old EV9 Land going from $55k to $44k in “value” based upon what you were seeing for asking prices on CarGurus, FB MP and CL and I was not sure that assumption was realistic.
The asking prices you are seeing are retail, or something like it, and that is not what most people “get” for their ride when selling if they go that route. In the end, your car is worth what a private party will pay (potentially just below full retail, used car at a dealer), what Carmax/Carvana/etc (maybe “wholesale +”) will pay or what a dealer will give you with another car being leased or purchased (could be higher, the same or lower than CM, CV, etc. and depends on the “new” car deal), or bought outright with no new lease or purchase and that would be wholesale all day. As to the values, that is a sliding scale “generally” from highest to lowest in listed order.
A Kia dealer could be asking $44k on the lot right now for that unit @ 2 years old, but that is one that has likely been “dealer” reconditioned, may have new tires and some limited warranty off the lot as well. Also keep in mind the dealer can make money off of the financing, extended warranty, service plan and/or whatever else they can sell when asking $44k up front. You can’t do that on yours and have less margin since it is price and car only so to speak.
I like your approach, but that EV9 Land seeing only 20% depreciation in 2 years? Hard to tell with EVs and the market being all over due to current gas prices, but assuming you could “get” $44k for it at that point may be a pretty large leap depending on what the future holds.
Thanks to you both for explaining the difference. I understand those would be the relevant values if I was to try selling the car two or three years from now. So that’s what’s relevant given my plan to purchase it by buying out the lease now.
In other words, if I buy it now, sell it in two years or trade it in, then the relevant value would be the amount a dealership or private party would pay me as a seller. E.g., about $37,000-$38,000.
In my head, I was making a different comparison which I think is still relevant: if I were to lease it for two years and then not purchase it at the end of lease, but instead purchase a used model of the same thing, then I would be looking at the costs that I posted earlier. E.g., $43,000-44,000.