Why? What changed?
We had a ‘glut’ for like two months where a couple of houses closed under ask in our cny village, since then 75% of listings with median list of 1 mil are pending. The only homes kinda sitting are 2 mil plus. So much cash on the sidelines apparently.
Equity markets rebounding and creating wealth. There was a strong effort to put a floor into the market come hell or high water.
This also slows layoffs and reduces the number of forced sellers.
Although sales have been slower and prices softening, prices still high despite high interest rates. Still too many people sitting on sub-3 mortgage rates and over $250-500k in equity so low incentive to sell.
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S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025
- The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite continue to display growth with 1.9%, 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively.
- Housing wealth erodes in real terms for second consecutive month, with home price gains of
1.9% trailing consumer inflation of 2.7%.- Regional leadership flips as New York (7.0%) and Chicago (6.1%) outpace former pandemic
darlings Tampa (-2.4%) and Phoenix (-0.1%).
However:
FHFA House Price Index Declined 0.2% in June
U.S. house prices rose 2.9 percent between the second quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the second quarter of 2025 remained unchanged compared to the first quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was down 0.2 percent from May.
Source:
.
So the yearly Case Shiller went up, quarterly remained unchanged, and the monthly decreased. This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease.
Exacerbated by RE taxes in CA where long-term owners save huuuge vs new purchases taxed at the purchase price plus minor annual increase (think of inflation kinda equivalent).
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Someone in this thread said I didn’t know what I was talking about when I commented about people who took advantage of super low interest rates contributes to keeping inventory off the market.
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So how is real estate doing? I know in SoCal.. there is no beatdown yet… prices may not be escalating but they are not dropping drastically either.
New homes in certain areas are crazy priced because resale inventory is still being held due to the low rates a few years ago.
In my area, it depends by school district. Mine is still getting over the asking price n pending within a week of listing. The neighboring district is staying for longer n has to reduce price to move.
On my block there were two houses for sale this summer. One was priced at $900K, sold the day it went on the market for full price.
Second one was listed for $1.9M and it’s still sitting 3 months later. This one sold for $1M during the 2020 madness. Sold in 2023 for $1.4M. Prices in the area have been steady to a slight increase in price since 2023. On a good day that house is worth $1.5M. The house was fully renovated just before 2020. So it’s not a case where the current owners put a lot of money into it between 2023 and now, increasing the value. They’re just unrealistic.
Price it it right, it sells. Price it at sky high wish numbers, it doesn’t. A tale as old as time.
If anyone is wondering how one block can have such a wide variety of pricing, this is a 100+ year old neighborhood. Lots of variation in houses built over the years. Big, small, expensive, cheap(ish). And of course condition. Some are renovated some need $250K of renovations. The kind of place where Zillow estimates are useless.
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There’s always gonna be someone who’s wealthy enough to buy at whatever price, whenever. But that doesn’t mean the economy isn’t going to shit lol