Yeah, I didn’t say that actual occupancy was terminated immediately or that the chart represents that. It only represents the actual numbers of “foreclosures“ on the books, regardless of how long the occupancy might have been.
But occupancy matters as available inventory affects prices.
Just like now, no one is selling because everyone is locked into their low rates and low"er" prices, so inventory is non existent which makes prices higher than they should be.
And new construction costs are prohibitively high for average homes. Which is why mostly high end stuff is being built as there’s better profit margins. It’s a proverbial shit storm. Zoning laws are being skated with airbnbs, at least some areas are doing something about that.
I think you should try to avoid the hype being propagated by the realtors, the media and commercial banks. While it is largely dependent also on the region/city/state, and while we are not in a glut of homes for sale, we are certainly on the high end historically when it comes to overall inventory.
Yep. I’m seeing a lot on the market near me. Still 300% above the last sale just a few years ago however. Many were strs it seems too so that industry is def hurting in south Florida. I don’t think inventory is the issue at all it’s 100% pricing at these rates. As I said you need 115k/yr with no debt to get approved for the average home in the country. Most people that make 115 have student loans and car payments. So prob would need more like 200k in that situation. I also don’t believe in the 36% of gross income towards a mortgage payment. That’s way too much imo. 20% of take home max is much safer, but almost impossible currently.
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Isn’t that a new home inventory graph?
Owners who have low rates and are sitting aren’t going to be represented by that graph.
You keep posting charts that don’t exactly apply to the conversation.
It’s trending back up regardless. And sales are down too. They have been dropping since well before covid, showing zirp was the main issue. Covid just the nail in the coffin
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Huh? Almost everything you have said has been pretty much incorrect or misleading at best.
Mortgage delinquencies, late pays and foreclosures didn’t “really” happen during or after the GR? What? Because it “took forever” so it “really” didn’t happen then?
“Mid-2000s”? You mean late 2000s and early 2010s?
Yet inventory (new or existing) clearly isn’t “non existent” [sic] and just because you state that “people are locked into low rates” does not make it so.
Each chart clearly refutes what you said and the charts are not misleading. The foreclosure number speaks for itself regardless of how many squatters avoided being tossed for whatever period of time once the foreclosure had been initiated. Likewise, the inventory numbers as charted also are crystal clear.
This is not hard stuff.
Many of those homes had 2 loans, If you where not paying cash you could not get your offer accepted, We offered on over 20 houses in a 6 month period, Even with 25% down, Never could get one, Finally just went with brand new.
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An unfortunate reality, but glad it worked out for you in the end!
You’re missing the point and are now nitpicking (and also removing the context as I did say “as bad”),
The keys here are inventory and dropping/rising rates effect on the market…
The late 2000s crash (is that better?) should have been much worse. If foreclosures actually put houses on the market instead of letting ex-owners sit in them and/or investors swooping them up, there would have been even larger reductions in pricing. Additionally, unforeseen low interest rates bailed owners out and slowed price drops. You admitted your foreclosure chart does not include any data regarding occupancy post foreclosure so it only shows part of the picture. Without those 2 things… it would have been bad everywhere… not just the non-coastal areas.
Inventory now is low (is that better than non-existent?), especially in the resale market which is why even with high rates, you still see multiple bidder and all/high cash offers (which high interest rates don’t really affect). And if you follow the logic, why would people who locked in at historical low rates sell now? You try to argue that point by posting a new sales inventory chart but that has nothing to do with current owners. And look at the one Jim posted, looks like inventory is lower than it has been in 20 years.
Yes… it’s not that hard. Why don’t you explain why prices are still high now with high rates (which many people claimed would hit double digits and cause prices to crash) and then tell us how real estate prices are going to crash harder now with all these well financed owners locked in at record low rates.
And I don’t mind being wrong… I thought prices were going to nosedive more in the late 2000s… I even sold one of our houses prior to the crash thinking I could rebuy something similar for cheaper. When it comes to real estate… no one can predict with 100% certainty.
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It is not “nitpicking” but rather is just telling you are not correct. I understand what you are (now) trying to say, but just please stop doubling down on being incorrect.
With all due respect, this can’t be correct or prices would be much lower.
Again, look at Jim’s US Supply of Existing homes chart. And if you also look at the 2005-2013 trend, that will explain the inventory vs price scenario I was referring to.
The problem is that the national numbers come from NAR and lots of houses sell without being an MLS listing as well. Listing counts don’t tell the entire story.
There are lots of for sale signs up though.
Percentage of homes sold on the MLS has been steadily around 80%. Around 7-10% were FSBO, and the remaining were off market deals (whether that’s wholesalers/flippers buying distressed properties, purchases between family members, companies purchasing their employee’s homes as part of relocation, or ibuyers like Opendoor)
Listing counts and absorption rate right now show that we’re still in a slightly sellers market nationally (around 3 months in 12/2023 vs 5-6 months being a balanced market)
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Inventory is historically low but off all time lows and trending up. Affordability is at an all time low. Rates historically are average but high for what most people can remember and coupled with house prices, brings you back to affordability.
Only 2 things can happen from here. Most people become renters, or housing prices drop. There’s no other option. Mom and pop investors aren’t really buying anymore, at these cap rates it’s just not worth it. You need to own hundreds if not thousands of properties to be profitable buying rentals today (there are def some market exceptions).
If rates rose to where they should have, close to 10% for a 30 year mortgage, then prices would have dropped to where they need to be, and corporations would likely get out of the game as well (they can’t get 30yr paper, most portfolio loans reset every 5,7 years). Would be perfect timing and they would have to put many houses on the market as well helping out inventory.
Once again enough wasn’t done out of fear of hurting corporations, not helping consumers. Hopefully the current pause on rates have the same effect. But I still think they should be a little higher.
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I refuse to buy anything unless I know I can afford to put extra towards the principal. Not gonna have a 300K house turn into an 800K house after interest. In the meantime…renting it is
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As long as you’re willing to pickup and move when the landlord tries to raise rents bc they know you’re comfortable. Theres no reason a landlord should be raising rents in this market, there’s a good amount of rental inventory in most areas. Mine tried this year and I told them one month of vacancy and they break even. They folded.
Constant 6% rental increases likely would make buying a 300k house now more affordable in the long run
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I dont mind moving generally…but rents have been declining for the last year and a halfish and still are declining by me
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The traditional mom & pop investors who get a mortgage and looking for cashflow, definitely aren’t buying as much. However, I’ve seen a shift of more cash-flush mom & pop investors buying all cash and investors buying strong deals that have a lot of instant equity or for appreciation speculation. The number of transactions are definitely significantly lower, but just something I noticed in a few markets I’m in.
The smaller corporations would definitely be impacted more, but the fixed rate 20-25 year options did exist, at least in 2019-2022. I believe that the larger institutions (think Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, Tri-con, etc) get a lot of private money from investors (through wealth management firms clients like Morgan Stanley and Goldman). I saw some proposals to invest in one through my FA. From what I recall, you had to meet pretty stringent net worth/income/investment amount requirements (either same or similar requirements to being an accredited investor)