If one was to lease the 3, it doesn’t matter what the real world value vs the RV is as Tesla does not let you buy it, so there will be no positive or negative equity.
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Just to add my two cents here, I actually purchased a base model 3 on the last day of June and ended up returning it on July 6th (within the 7 day return period). Just for kicks though, when I did still have it, I emailed Vroom and asked what they would buy it for, they offered $34k and the total before tax, title and doc was $38100. I actually thought that was a pretty good offer. So purchasing your model 3 might make more sense as others have noted above. I really liked the car, the feel on the road and behind the steering wheel was second-to-none, and man is that thing fast! However, I hated the seats and I just couldn’t get used to sitting low after having SUV’s. But I would definitely consider it in the future. Just beware that if you are in an accident or something goes wrong, you can be without your car for weeks or even months waiting for parts and such.
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Not following what role equity plays in my suggestion… What I meant is basically compare cost of ownership on lease vs financing based on some assumptions. Tesla wont let you buy but they calculate lease offers based on a residual which is akin to resale value in finance scenario.
As a model 3 owner, I would tell you to buy it. They are really holding their value on the secondary market and each $1k price reduction opens up more buyers. There appears to be hard floor for 200+ EVs at $30k market value and even more for Tesla’s. With the Tesla lease, the contract doesn’t allow you to purchase, so your locking in a high amount of depreciation which I am confident won’t exist. They haven’t done a hard refresh of the Model S in 8 years and the update these cars over the air. You’re giving Tesla all the upside, even if you think you’re mitigating risk.
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If the 3 has “equity” at the end of the lease, that means you effectively paid too much depreciation during the lease, but you can’t even re-claim it.
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Oh yeah… I am actually surprised that some banks cut you a check for positive equity as a practice. After all, customer is not responsible when it goes the other way around. Pretty generous on their side.
The banks don’t cut you a check, but most standard lease deals give you the right to buy it at the residual value (as this essentially makes the bank whole and they profited on the loan). If it’s worth more than that, you exercise that option and flip it to a dealer or another person, and you realize your equity. Tesla deals suck as you don’t get that option.
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There are multiple occasions where people received credit/cash after they turn in their cars when cars are sold at higher than residual at the auction.
Edit: Grammar
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Alright, here’s my spreadsheet comparing lease vs finance:
(@Mike_Ezginder)
Please check my assumptions (& math, haha). I’m not sure what to expect for resale value after 3 years in the finance option.
For a $41,190 car, my math shows with a 3% APR, and a resale price of $24K, financing is about $2K cheaper compared to the lease. That sound right? Should I expect a higher resale price? It would take a resale price as low as $22K for the lease & financing to cost the same.
If $24K is a good estimate, I’m not sure that $2K is worth it to me for the higher monthly cost, risk on residual, etc. OTOH, if $24K seems low, and a resale of $27K is possible, that would (I think) make financing $5K cheaper than the lease, which would be more compelling…
Thanks for any feedback!
I think you are way too conservative on your resale value but this is the biggest unknown here. Still, I think you should be able to do better than 24K if Tesla thinks your car will be worth $26.5k. There is no indication that Tesla would inflate residuals like BMW does nor they have any incentive to do so. I am assuming your monthly calculations are correct, I didn’t verify them. If this was a 150 mile range car, upcoming 250 mile range electrics would kill your resale value but I don’t think Tesla will introduce 400 mile version of model 3 without a hefty price premium which is another reason why current version will retain its value . All are speculations of course.
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Don’t forget about the cost of maintenance which for Tesla should be low. I do hear though that they eat tires quickly so another data point to enter.
Did you factor in the Tesla federal tax credit that won’t be around in a few years?
I’m with the OP on mitigating resale risk. There is no historic data to go on for the Model 3, so even Tesla is simply guessing as to the RV. For all we know, they won’t be around in 3 years, which would totally tank their values. I just don’t think the reward vs risk is there to justify short-term ownership. But, of course, some people are bigger gamblers than others.
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It’s definitely not…but all this math is based IMO on a very conservative RV. With the fed credit all but gone, the RV should hold up very well going forward…no more free money to affect the resale value. Tech wise, these cars age pretty well compared to other evs mainly due to Tesla’s ability to improve its software remotely.
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Tesla already has a history of dropping prices overnight. You think they won’t drop MSRP when tax credits expire, and even more demand has diminished?
First of, they will drop the msrp but that may not affect the RV much…unless of course we are talking big drops which won’t happen unless they come up with a new cheaper battery.
Second, you can check the demand yourself and clearly see that despite what some market writers are speculating, the demand is steadily increasing. There really is no cap to this demand as we can clearly see from the yearly ev sale numbers. In many markets sales are restricted by lack of inventory rather than buyers.
Some of you folks who are so certain the RV on these is conservative should back the leases yourselves. Great investment opportunity, no?
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LOL. If anyone wants to backstop me at $26.5K RV, I’ll finance and you can keep everything over that amount when I sell. I promise to take really good care of the car.
I appreciate everyone’s input. For me, I think hedging with a lease is a better fit, for multiple reasons, even if financing would be theoretically $2-5K cheaper over 3 years. My reasons include a) where I live next to the ocean b) EV tech changing quickly / better when new c) uncertainty about whether I’ll love the car d) smaller monthly payments.
For those who question (a), I can tell you that I just had my Volt detailed before lease return, and the ocean air just destroyed the fake chrome trim around the windows in 3 years. Also apparently I need to wash my car more often. 
Post when you sell it and we see whose camp had more accurate predictions! Good luck .
Hi jacobotubo, I’m in the process of leasing SR+ too. Did you get your 1000 miles free supercharging?
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