Few points:
(1) It doesn’t make sense that it would be the same payment for 10k vs. 12k. The 10k residual will be 1% higher than the 12k residual.
(2) The numbers don’t make sense. Using exactly what you provided with a 60% residual adjusted down for mileage, I’m getting the following numbers:
(3) If you change this to a 24 month lease and do MSDs, things improve quite a bit.
Basically something in here doesn’t make sense in your original numbers, but even still, you should max out your MSDs and do a 24 month lease given the discount being provided.
I got this quote for 2018 BMW 330i Xdrive Loaner with 4400 miles in it. The car comes with convenience package, Blind Spot monitor and Heated seats/steering wheel. Monthly Payment is $362 with $1500 down for 36 months/12k miles lease.
On the surface it looks ok. Can’t really dig in though being on my phone. With the decent discount and higher residual for 24, you may fare better, payment wise. You’re at 17% off before incentives now.
Base MF and looks like a strong discount to start. As @mp11477 notes have them run numbers for 24/12 for comparison but the only way to improve the deal is more off the sale price which they may or may not do.
This was my deal on a more expensive loaner…not sure what neck of the woods you’re in but considering tax seems to be on payment in your state, you may have some wiggle room: