When I was doing the math on Cayennes, I was looking at $20-25k ones with like 60-80k miles.
Even if I got a good deal privately, and drove it for 3 years and 10k miles each, between taxes, estimated maintenance and depreciation at trade-in, it was going to be something stupid like $15k over 3 years assuming nothing broke, or it’d just be stuff I could fix. Effective $450-ish a month.
Instead decided to make the wife love an X2. 
Ok. I don’t mean to hijack the post but not only is your reply incredibly helpful to the OP but you’ve also given me an “ah-ha” moment. I’m looking to lease a Mercedes A220, CLA250, or C300 in the coming months BUT was always curious how a CPO purchase compared. This ‘Effective Monthly Payment’ formula helps a lot with that. I’ve done a workup similar to yours and had to guess on some of the numbers. Did I do this correctly?
$30k 2017 CLA250 (30,000 miles)
$30k Sales Price (2017 CLA250)
$975 Taxes (3.25%)
$1,200 Tires All Around & Mounted
$2,000 In Oil Changes/Maintenance
Trade in for a 2014 CLA250 with 75,000 miles is $13,500
Total cost of ownership is around $20,675 based on this. That gives me an effective monthly payment of $574.
I assume that means I would take that (if correct) and compare it to the deals here to see which makes more sense? Obviously I know a lot of things could raise this (one garage bill for example since it’s a German car).
How are you determining the predicted trade in value though? I calculated mine using a 5 year old vehicle (buying CPO 2 years and going back another 3 for ownership length).
These are all horrible candidates to buy. They never stop depreciating and the reliability is suspect.
Look at Lexus LX or GX instead to buy, or lease something like the above
Check out this site.
https://usedfirst.com/
It gives you an idea how much the vehicle depreciates through the years.
I typically just go to kbb.com and look up the same vehicle but 3 years older and with the extra miles on top. It’s a rough ballpark.
Now of course all of this goes out the window if you are the type to drive a car into the ground.
My father for example, has a 2011 328i that he bought cpo, low miles, former loaner back in 2012. I think got it for around like $32-34k sale price. He’s driven it just to work and back for the last 7 years, I think now has around 65k miles on it. It’s had some issues that required about $2k in maintenance, and been through 2 sets of tires, probably could use another soon. So another $2k in tires. MO sales tax is 9%, so $3k in taxes (not counting the yearly personal property tax).
He’s started to think about getting a cpo 5 series to replace it. Dealer offered him $5k for his car on trade. So that means that if he took that deal. The effective monthly for the 7 years he’s owned it is about $400 off the top of my head.
When I explained to him the actual cost of ownership in those terms, and compared it to my $215 a month 330i I’m leasing right now, and showing him that even a normal lease deal could have been cheaper in the long run with the BMW . He finally got it.
This is the guy that is extremely frugal about everything. Thought leasing was for rich idiots, has been well off and liked to splurge a little bit on a nicer car than the accord he owned for 8 years. Really opens people’s eyes when they really do look at the true cost of ownership and compare it to leasing.
In the end though, probably the best way to still drive cheaply is indeed a few year old accord or Camry and run it for 10 years… But I’d rather be dead.
Fixed it. Best varies by person.
“In the end though, probably the best way to still drive cheaply is indeed a few year old accord or Camry and run it for 10 years… But I’d rather be dead”
But I’d rather be dead! Hahahah that’s hilarious! 
Granted, my most economical cars have been a Lotus Elise I owned for two years and made $10k on (bought for $26, sold for $36) and didn’t put any money into for repairs because it never needed it.
Now a Porsche 911 I bought cheap and put some money into I can probably drive for free over the next year or two thanks to the 996’s starting to appreciate.
But those are unique and hard-to-daily cars, and I’ve gotten lucky with finding the right car for the right price, and more importantly later the right buyer, so I don’t try to recommend that to “regular” folks who don’t want to wrench on cars or have the passion.
Early 997s have bottomed out too, why not get the better looking car
I HATE the interior on the 997’s, idk why. I prefer the 996 interior. I had an old 986 boxster years ago and got a soft spot for that era of Porsches.
Plus can’t get a 997 for $14,500. IMS already replaced, early 2001 build, 6 speed manual RWD, just a nice car to bomb around in.
I’m the opposite. Even if I could get past the exterior, I don’t like the 996 interior at all.
I saw a 997.1 6mt S cab for like 26 the other day, that was tempting
I’ll gladly dump this 996.1 I have for a 991.2 when those start dipping into the 40’s.
I’m not a fan of the 996.2, I don’t mind the 996.1 when the headlights are totally cleared out (like mine), I think the 993 are the ugliest front ends. 964 and 991 being the best. 997 exterior is definitely nice (except the tail lights, meh).
Only way I like the 996 interior is with the GT3 center console delete. Which is what I did with mine. Gives it a little more old school feel, but with modern amenities. I custom made a wireless charger and installed bluetooth to the OEM stereo. So can use my phone as navigation easily and stream music over the stock radio without some gawdy looking thing. Best bang-for-the-buck car right now I think. Sub $15k, 300hp, RWD 6-speed, yummmm.
Was almost two years ago (lease is up in January).
Interesting site but YIKES
We determine this by sorting on the difference between the original price paid and the current market price the past twelve model years spanning all trim levels.
Peanutbutter all the meaningful granularity out. Just spread it all over. 
I think we’re fair and say what doesn’t lease well (avoid) and what to buy instead of leasing.
Always do the math but if we’re being general:
Also always buy top/sports trim of normal cars (Golf R and usually GTI, STI and usually WRX, etc)
Almost always lease luxury and anything over 45k msrp, except the lux/spendy rides that lease horribly, just avoid them or prepare to pay.
You should also consider excise tax when calculating cost of ownership. It’s $25 for every $1000 in MA, I’m not sure about other states. That is $1000/yr for a $40k bmw.
996 front end…is hideous. I have tried to look past it…i can’t.
997.2 is the solid option…
I just sold my 991.1. Bought it CPO, 2 years old (with 20k miles), kept it for 4 (added 30K miles).
I had a 987.2 cayman. I am keeping an eye out for a 981 cayman s. I am over the 911. for now.
Just went thru the whole thread…
That’s one hell of a deal you got there!! Good luck on January 
My challenge with some of the vehicles I have leased in the past is the initial year depreciation is steep, but for many of those vehicle, you are already receiving a 15-30% off MSRP discount when adding dealer discount and manufacturer incentives - which really helps flatten things out.