Generally, the more desirable cars are harder to lease (less discount) and the residual also goes weird the farther you are from the base model. The luxury brands (BMW, MB) sometimes also have better lease programs (very optimistic residual %). That being said $300/mo on $30-40k MSRP is very doable if you are flexible on the car & timing (willing to wait), have “Tier A” credit and willing to put the work in to learn the lease terminology and negotiate. Some people travel out of state to get theirs done. Having a lot of money up front ($5-6k) for MSDs also help bring the monthly down and you get it all back at the end of the lease.
Yeah, not a lot of MTs out there … however, personally, my daily driver that last 20 years were all MT Porsches (they are actually less expensive than the Tiptronic/PDKs) but don’t know much about MT vs AT for non-Porsches in terms of price
You just listed the cars in worst to lease to best to lease in that order precisely.
BMW is going to get the most car for the buck. Plenty of them can still be found in manuals in sub -$400 range maybe sub $300 if you get a killer demo deal.
In addition to what others have posted (e.g. desirable cars don’t lease well, partly because sellers know they are less rational buying decisions and are much less fungible than, say, a Camry) there’s another factor.
A dealer’s “halo” car or limited inventory car (1-2 or maybe just a handful on a typical dealer’s lot) is much less likely to be discounted, regardless of its MSRP in the grand scheme of things.
In terms of likelihood (numbers are inexact) of getting a discount:
Subaru dealer with a $40K STi < BMW dealer with a $50K 3-series
VW dealer with $40K Golf R < Audi dealer with $48K S3
Chevy dealer with $70K Corvette < Porsche dealer with $100K 911
You can get a 2017 VW Jetta GLI this month in the low $200’s with a manual. If you really want more performance, a $600 APR flash will add 60hp/80tq to the car.
I got a convertible manual Mini S demo car for $220 a month but I think I got really lucky. Out of like 5 dealerships, there was only a total of like 3-5 manuals on the lot.