Jaguar F-Pace lease - Please help me with my paralysis of analysis!

Hello folks! First, this forum is awesome and I’ve been learning a lot. I’ll try to put down all the information I have here. I’m looking to make a final decision today (tomorrow at the latest) on an F-Pace. Basics that I can provide at the moment:


Jaguar F-Pace Prestige
MSRP: $59,115
Negative Equity trade-in: +$2,500
Dealer discount: -$4,503.32
Holiday discount: - $1,500
Current vehicle selling price: $54,109.68
Res: 50%
MF: 0.00064
Total cap cost/Balance Due: $59,778.03 after tax
Credit score: 800+

Drive-off: $2,000
Monthly: $779/m after tax

The big first question: how good/bad does this look to your better trained eyes? If I should look elsewhere, please let me know. If I’m in a reasonable range, I will feel a lot better…but please give it to me straight.

Second question: Is it a bad idea to add my trade-in to the deal? It’s a low-mileage (< 13,000mi) 2014 BMW 435i with just about all the options in excellent condition. They’re offering $21,500, with $23,750 owed on it. I could probably sell it for $25k or maybe more privately, but I’ve never sold a car and am not currently comfortable with doing so. However, if it is objectively the right way to go, I will. They told me doing so would only save me about $60/month.

There are also about $1,000 in “pure profit” features currently here. Stuff like dent protection or interior protection for $500 each that I’m sure I’ll have removed.

Otherwise, definitely need any and all advice. I’ve been struggling to find the right vehicle (was also looking at Macan’s but couldn’t get those prices under $800/m where I feel comfortable) and I’m happy with what I’ve found in this Jaguar, but I want to feel like I’m at least getting a decent price. If I’m not, I’ll go back to the negotiating table to get more off the MSRP. It’s just that with so few people posting their F-Pace deals here or elsewhere, it’s really hard to have an idea discern if I’m in a decent deal range. I know this is about 30% above the 1% guideline.

Please help alleviate this paralysis (and heavy headache I have right now). Just trying to get a good deal and hit a good monthly payment mark. Calling around has been hard today because most of the dealerships in the area are closed. With tomorrow being a work day my time for negotiating will be at a bare minimum. Alas, I just don’t feel confident that I have reached “good deal” status yet. Help!

Thank you in advance.

For your current car, have you tried to get it appraised through vroom and carvana? Maybe they can come closer to the buyout. The negative equity is adding about $69 per month, 2500 / 36.

Thanks for the response! I have not tried to have it appraised anywhere but at dealerships while shopping around for my next car. I will definitely give those places a look (right now).

Updated the first post with an image of the quote. Dealer just sent it to me.

@JamesBond just a quick note. Caravana put the estimated value at about $22k. Vroom, I’m still waiting on but I would expect it to be the same. So only $500 different from the dealer and about the same as Lexus appraised it at.

Edit: the dealer just told me they would eat the negative equity if I came in and signed today.

Still hoping for feedback on the deal. We can subtract that $2,250 from the sheets above and about $70/month.

I don’t know what discount to shot for on the F pace but I usually email numerous dealers and see if any of them bite on a deeper discount. You have all the needed numbers so contact the dealers nearby and see if anyone can do a dealer discount of 5000 or say 5200. Don’t mention your current car for now.

Will do. It’s just tough because not many are open today and they really want me to come in tonight to finish the paperwork.

If I can get the current dealer to get to 10% on the MSRP, maybe I’ll just call it a day.

Yes of course they want you to get it tonight .F Pace leases are horrible in Dec. I wouldn’t rush into it based on the numbers I am seeing.

The 25t is a lackluster engine for this car. I dont think youll be satisfied.

^^ agreed - the 25t engine is not very good - I have it in my Discovery Sport which I am dumping at lease end. Hate the engine and tranny - endured 3 years of less than stellar Land Rover quality - it’s a cheapo Ford Eco boost engine IMO.

Spent so many months in a Jag F Pace loaner (35t) but can’t find it in the 2018/19.
Closest engine is an S trim which is over $70k.

The LR dealers have been awful with finding me a 6 cylinder engine replacement like the full sized Discovery.

I have given up on the F Pace, Velar, and Discovery as I have a pull ahead offer.

Going with PHEV for the next 3 years.

Thanks for the response. I’m sending them a note to get me to 10% off the MSRP (-$5,911). That would put us at:


  • $5,911 (10%)
  • $1500 national program


assuming I don’t take the “appearance protection” and “dent protection”, we’re at

$51704 - $23750 (trade-in) for a difference of $27,954 + 1677.24 (tax) + Docu Fee + tags + filing

Cap Cost = roughly $54,735.74 (down from $59,778.03 as in the first post)

monthly payment should be around $685/m? That’d be pretty huge for my peace of mind…but if you guys say it’s not good, I’ll believe you.

For what it’s worth, I was okay with the engine. I’m not a hard driver and am fairly apathetic towards power after never using it in my 435i.

If they “need” to sell you a car today, I’d shoot for 13% before rebates. The MF and residual is really poor on the F Pace this month, so things could get much better Thursday.

Or, explore a blowout former loaner or demo.

Oh it’s possible that I could get an even better deal later this week? I’ve been sort of fixated on end-of-year offers.

Anyway, I messaged them for at least 10%. We’ll see! Strictly speaking, I have until May. I just assumed end of year was the best time to get something done.

The best time to get a car is when the dealer needs to meet their quota. That can be end of year or any other time. If they already met their quota then they have less incentive to make a deal. I doubt residual will increase next month but incentives may improve to move more cars if sales were weak.