FSD inflates the hypothetical sticker to make this sale artificially more appealing. In reality FSD has a MMR value of just +$750.
So subtract $15k and then the hypothetical sticker becomes 62
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I personally agree with this but I have seen dealers pay premiums much higher than $750 for FSD. If I were a consumer wanting FSD (and possibly willing to pay $15k for it), saving $10k for a used model would be worth considering.
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Here is what changed with auction results and a headwind for Tesla. Its the Tesla lease returns that were suppose to part of the Robotaxi fleet that are sitting. If you look pre price cuts, there were a lot of sales by Tesla under the Lease category, now they are Regular sales , so Tesla isnāt selling, these are most likely dealers .
Tesla would sell used 3s inventory to Carvana, now they will release a few 3s at a few Manhiem locations to control the flow. I suspect many 3s run, but donāt hit the reserve
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Looks like they are finally passing the 7500.
Although it doesnāt look like a cap reduction 
I looked and when you switch to lease it removes the $7500. Maybe Iām missing somethingā¦
Only the 3 SR has it so far. Both 3 LR and Y/S/X donāt seem to be passing the reduction.
I donāt think theyāre passing it either
What makes you think theyāre passing it on? The lease seems way too expensive for them to be passing it on and if you compare the lease cost to pre-price change, it doesnāt seem to reflect enough of a cost decrease to account for both the MSRP reduction AND a tax credit pass on.
They probably jimmied with the residual like Audi did when they started passing through the credit again
3 of them have >10k miles on ODO. Adjusting for that, Iād say the value is holding up.
I think we will see a better picture in 60 days or soā¦ I canāt imagine that a dealer today is giving anywhere close to MMR on a MYLR trade in.
Maybe I should have added that the value is holding up yet. I agree that itās very early to predict where the market is headed to over the next few months.
You may be right. Iām only seeing a 2% residual difference(66 vs 64) and slight MF difference(0.002335 vs 0.002551) between the SR vs P. Donāt think thatās all of the 7500.
$12,500 incentiveā¦
So do the new M3 and MY delivered have radar now? I see that HW4 is supposed to be released with CT in 2023/24.
On the fence about MY but feel that as soon as I take delivery, they will add radar 
Mine from last month does notā¦just "Tesla Vision"
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No they donāt. Rumors indicate they will announce AP HW4 at investor day conference in March.
If think HW2 included a free upgrade to HW3 , but HW3 does not include free upgrade.
They want to charge me $1000 to upgrade from HW2 to HW3 on my S100D.
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Question for those who have recently placed an orderā¦I have an estimated delivery date of 2/20-3/20 (no VIN assigned) for a M3P ordered a week ago. How are current production estimates tracking to actual delivery dates? I jumped on the bandwagon when the price dropped and the vehicle became eligible for the tax creditā¦slightly worried that there is a tax credit guidance change if itās delivered on the back side of the production estimate. Trying to decide if I get aggressive with an existing inventory release based on the first post of this thread or just sit back and wait.
I placed a MYLR order morning of 1/13. Original delivery window was 1/26 to 2/1. Window is now 2/2 to 2/11. Iāve had a VIN assigned since 1/18. No idea if itās actually coming during revised window.
Iāve been debating seeing if I should get one I see in inventory not too far away also.
Iām not sure about recent deliveries, but in the past if VIN is assigned itās pretty close to arriving. Like a week or two I would say.