Lovin the data points. I spent some time on fb tesla 4/s page and seeing some owner ask July pricing on their Y’s and Plaids is pure entertainment.
Locally the half dozen $59K base white 2022 Ys (with very low miles) at dealers got snapped up when they hit that price point so there seems to be a buyer’s target which is probably around $7500 below current MSRP. The Ys at $62K or higher still sit.
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Been tracking 2021 Tesla Model 3 Perf values. In May highest offer was from Vroom $54,000. Checked last night, highest offer was from Carvana at $46,100. Tesla market has definitely cooled.
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I sold my 2018 for more than that. 
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Some expanded data for the past week.
22 Model MMR /11-18
2022 TESLA MODEL 3 2WD 4D SEDAN BASE MMR $43,700 (-$1300)
2022 TESLA MODEL 3 AWD 4D SEDAN LONG RANGE BASE MMR $48,500 (-$100)
2022 TESLA MODEL 3 AWD 4D SEDAN PERFORMANCE BASE MMR $51,800 (-$500)
2022 TESLA MODEL Y 4D SUV LONG RANGE BASE MMR $56,600 (-$1200)
2022 TESLA MODEL Y 4D SUV PERFORMANCE BASE MMR $62,100 (-$900)
21 Model MMR / 11-18
2021 TESLA MODEL 3 2WD 4D SEDAN BASE MMR $36,900 (-$900)
2021 TESLA MODEL 3 AWD 4D SEDAN LONG RANGE BASE MMR $41,100 (-$600)
2021 TESLA MODEL 3 AWD 4D SEDAN PERFORMANCE BASE MMR $47,000 (-$700)
2021 TESLA MODEL Y 4D SUV LONG RANGE BASE MMR $51,400 (-$300)
2021 TESLA MODEL Y 4D SUV PERFORMANCE BASE MMR $53,700 (-$100)
Feels like it’s near the bottom, but perhaps not quite there yet.
I’d like to get to the point where we are under -$500 per week.
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I am, out of mild curiosity, following this one…
If it goes under 100k that’s a lot of $$$ for fun
Is Model Y can get EV rebate in 2023.
Isnt Y falls under SUV and if under 70k it gets qualified for EV rebate. Batteries from USA and builds in TX.
Looks like ordering is open for Y.?
Maybe half credit. Minerals minimum will be a problem for all brands for next few years.
There’s a high chance that any order you place will end up with a delivery this year forcing you to give up your $250.
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Guidance from the IRS will come before the end of the year. I expect most US EV’s to be eligible for the full credit but it’s all speculation at this point.
I expect none will be eligible for full credit. I don’t see a single brand meeting the 40% minerals minimum.
GM ceo Mary Barra has already stated a week ago, none of their EV’s will qualify for full $7500 credit for at least “2 to 3 years”.
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Unless they allow for exceptions which I speculate will happen. But yes, under the current rules, nothing will qualify for 100% credit.
There is nothing written in the legislation for Treasury to give exceptions, they have no authority to do that. New legislation will have to be written and passed for that to happen.
Mary Barra wouldn’t be giving interviews and telling media their EV’s are getting half credit without knowledge of situation. My guess is they have already given Treasury their component/mineral sourcing info and know the outcome.
Plus if you start giving exceptions for minerals minimum. Why not give exceptions for built in US portion as well. You know big lawsuits would come from the likes of Toyota and Hyundai if Treasury started handing out exceptions to certain brands.
I thought MY batteries mineral comes from NA and built in Texas.
We’ll see on January 1st or earlier, when IRS issues guidance on this.
Latest on IRS/Treasury: Revamped EV tax credit rules will get fast-tracked by IRS
No, most of their mineral sourcing contracts are through Chinese companies.
Also starting 2024, if a single component is from a “foreign entity of concern”(which includes China) the vehicle will not qualify for any of the $7500 credit.
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It’s 40% of the value not of the entire content. Value being the term in the law.
Nickel and Cobalt are the most expensive minerals in a battery (typically NMC 811). Nickel and Cobalt are mined in many free trade countries (edit: Cobalt… not so much).
Am I expecting any battery to get both halves of the credit? Not really. Tesla might because they build + assembly cells and batteries in Nevada.
It comes down to colbalt, nickel, lithium…three most expensive minerals in EV batteries. Good luck to these brands and treasury tracking what minerals are coming from what location. What a mess.
List of Tesla suppliers.
https://electrek.co/2022/05/06/tesla-list-battery-material-suppliers-long-term-nickel-deal-vale/
More important going forward is the “foreign entity of concern” portion of the legislation.
- 2024 a single component from China will make any EV not eligible for credit.
- 2025 a single mineral from China will make any EV not eligible for credit.
This portion will kill even more credits. Take Ford for example who announced Lightning and MachE is moving to LFP batteries from CATL. CATL is a Chinese company with no plants in US or FTA country.
Ended unsold at $102,500.
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