How to fairly "score" lease rates?

I’m creating a spreadsheet of captive lease rates (MF and RV) of a specific model’s trims (as specific as styles) for a given location. I am able to manually source this information together with each available permutation of terms (months) and allowed mileages. I also have the MSRP of each one. What would be the best way to figure out which of these trims would lease the best for us (consumers)?

For consistency, assume the following:

  • MSRP is the selling price (not including destination charge)
  • Zero drive off
  • No downpayment, rebates, incentives, coupons, lease cache, etc., essentially, no cap cost reduction at all
  • No trade-in vehicle
  • No registration fees, doc fees, acquisition fees, etc
  • No taxes

Given almost everything is constant, plus knowing the terms, allowed mileage, money factor and residual value, I can calculate the following:

Residual Value = MSRP x Residual Percentage

Depreciation = MSRP - Residual Value

Base Monthly Payment = Depreciation / Term

Monthly Rent Charge = (MSRP + Residual Value) x Money Factor

Total Rent Charge = Monthly Rent Charge x Term

Pretax Lease Payment = Base Monthly Payment + Monthly Rent Charge

Question: Which of these would be the best attribute to score the lease of a group of trims (same model)? My gut feeling is the Total Rent Charge, but I’d like to hear your thoughts as well.

If I’m considering leasing one of two different trims this month, one has $3000 cash on the hood and the other doesn’t, how is excluding the incentives a fair evaluation of which is leasing better?

The answer to your bigger question will be subjective: if I can lease the higher trim for $10/mo more because the RV happens to be higher, one person will think that’s a better value (more stuff for almost the same price), one cheapskate will want the absolute least payment because they don’t care about the extra options.

I think what you’re doing can be used to subjectively compare the RV and MF across trims, and also across terms (is 24 months more than 6 points higher RV with the same MF?). You can decide what matters most to you and filter based on that.

Is this for your personal evaluation, or some other purpose?

me me me me me me me

On the car I already have, I’d deactivate CarPlay in exchange for a $10 Hobby Lobby gift card.

The only thing I look at is total lease cost, because that’s how much money I’ll no longer have when I give the car back.

If you’re developing a tool to help others, you’ll likely need to offer at least a couple of options because people perceive value so differently.

This doesnt add consistency. It makes your comparison tool useless as youre ceasing to compare actual market prices.

There can be significant pricing differences cross trims in both average discount and available incentives.

The only things you need to look at are Share Deals & Tips and Marketplace

Gotcha. So I think including available manufacturer rebates, incentives, lease cash, etc. is a must, then.

Further questions:

What about acquisition fee and destination charge? Should I roll them in the monthly computation? Do they differ per trim or region?

Do these rates from the captive sources change exactly at the 1st of every month? Is it safe to add an expiry date at the last day and refetch the data at the 1st?

Let me say what everyone is too polite to say:

This is a massive waste of time.

Unless it’s a purely academic exercise. Is this for your thesis? Or do you need a car in your driveway anytime soon?

It’s a pet project. I figure it might help others in the market for a new lease.

So… something like this table for every trim of every model of selected makes would be a massive waste of time?

Car Edge research team in here?

A lot of this information is available, but the definitions in short hand form are helpful.
My suggestion if you care to take it, is compiling undisclosed mfg to dealer incentives. That would be something that would help with information asymmetry that exists in todays marketplace.

Yea, it becomes useless when you scale it up to more makes x models x trims x tax structures x monthly (sometimes mid-monthly) changes.

There are only sub 3% of makes/models/trims that are even worth considering. 97+ percent of lease programs are dumpster fires.

NTM so many of the most attractive lease programs are targeted. For example

Volvo XC90: need targeted loyalty

Etron GT: need Costco

EQS in Q2: sams club or affinity

Nissan in Q1: best for people with liquidity to do one-pay with MSD.

Etc. etc.

TLDR if you can introduce just a single new model to Signed Deals & Tips this month with a signed deal, it will be a much better use of your time.