Cash international sales will absolutely prop it’s absolutely going to cool down everywhere with higher rates. The point is some markets will see less if a decline then others.
They didn’t drop 10% here like other markets in august. More like 5%. Waterfront is still sky high as the wealthy are still likely to pay cash now with higher rates. When rates were 3% they were forced to pay cash to be competitive.
this. DFW market is completely in a different realm. I don’t know how native texans are gonna pull through.
Dallas is almost as expensive as Chicago now. the most surprising place i got outbid was Arlington,TX which imo is a dump
I lived in Las Vegas in the mid 2000s. I heard all the “we’re different here” talk. Las Vegas was going to be the new New York (seriously some people were saying that shit, lol). I looked around saw nothing but desert and $17/hr casino jobs coupled with $400K entry level homes and thought, something ain’t quite right here. And sold my house at the peak, while everyone was telling me I was insane and would be - wait for it - PRICED OUT FOREVER!!
This is what I mean by my previous comment. Every city will have its own version of why we’re different and the fundamental laws of finance don’t apply to us.
I could be completely wrong and maybe Miami walks out with a little scratch while the rest of the country gets bloodied. Who knows. Anything can happen I suppose. But based on the past 100-ish years or so of Florida boom and bust real estate history, it’s highly unlikely.
Well only a moron would think Vegas is different! That was an issue of overbuilding and people leveraging to the tilt. Money blinds people but anyone comparing Vegas to nyc is blind. One has gambling as the main employer, which gambling always takes a hit in a recession. The other has industry and banking along with being a global destination for the elite.
What’s different about Florida this time is the aging population, foreign buyers with lots of cash, and working from home. Those are variables that should prop things up.
Don’t get me wrong florida will drop I just think it’ll be about a 50% drop compared to what the nation at large does. That’s if there’s not a major hurricane, that’s a variable that we’re due for.
I’ll likely be a renter here unless there’s a huge correction. Even with that happening, insurance costs and overall maintenance here makes leasing attractive. Along with the flexibility to move anytime I want. I could see buying rental units here before getting a primary for my family.
borrow money against the inflated values while you can. 
I refied last year before rates went up, and bought a vacation home. Now getting an additional HEL on the silly value put on our primary home.
2 homes are for sale in my immediate community. One that is now pending was listed at the highest price ($600k) any home in our community has been listed at…well, ever. Another house down the way just went live a few days ago and is still available as of today. Very curious to see how much these homes sell for in a 6%+ interest rate environment. I believe the previous “record” for most expensive home in our community was set back in May for $570k.
As an ex-New York now Tenessean (Nashville) and now future Floridian (Miami). Everywhere is expensive, I think the Nashville Market is due for a Huge crash. Rents for one bedrooms got raised 20% for my renewal and a decent 1 bedroom is now easily 2-2500. Its the last gasp though as houses are well on their way down, 500k houses pre covid were asking and selling 1.5M. Those same are just over a M now. I love TN and its a great place with excellent people, but it cant hold a candle to NY/MIA, I can imagine alot of remote workers looking to go back to their native lands over the next 6-12 months taking a bath on the overpriced real estate. Thank god we rented after 6 months the honey moon period wore off and we were looking to get out.
2500 1bd dollar rent in Nashville??? I’ve rented out my apartments 3bd for 2500 and people were saying it’s a lot in nyc
They rewned me at 2538+$100 per car parking+water+gas+electric. If not for 0% income tax id be pissed.
In OC, $2500 1BD is in the ghetto areas.
Things have changed. Crashes and recessions play out vastly differently in disparate areas or regions of the country.
The fly-over state recession will be worse than the coastal one.
Let’s make sure were comparing apples to apples here…1 bd $2500 / month in Nashville is a shiny new building, parking garage, gym, “lounge room” with a pool table, computer room, and the apt has central hvac, granite countertops, w/d in unit, and you can walk to the Whole Foods and get a Starbucks on your walk around the neighborhood.
@vinny I may be wrongly assuming this is the type place you live but just want to make sure were comparing the same thing.
woah woah owah, do you know what building i live in lol
Besides the gym, and lounge room mine have everything too. Granite countertops, hvac, everything is in a walkable distance, including the airport. Don’t have any majestic views though
i do have a member of the Tennessee Titans on my floor, cool dude, drives a white range
Florida condos have historically been some of the most volatile and terrible investments in all of real estate. Slowest to appreciate, first to plummet in value, and then there’s all of the headaches with mismanaged HOAs and skyrocketing fees, short-term rentals, etc. Unless you were lucky enough to scoop one up at the bottom of the last big crash, in which case at least you’ve made some equity back. But for folks buying now…yikes.
You’re wise to rent instead of buy.
theres also a new condo building across the freeway from me, $1M for a 1 bed. You get sprawling views of the interstate and local Toyota Dealership. Theres a White castle too!
I can validate this anecdotally. The number of clients we had buy homes for their kids in the past two years was almost triple the previous 10 years. The PPP loans are going down in history as the greatest handout to the wealthy ever. Many people are getting their ERC this year as well.
In the markets where the majority of my client base is, there are low-density desirable areas (water bodies, close to city w/out crime, good public schools) that are still uber-competitive. We call them “Aspen’s”.
The one differentiator I have seen recently is that people are looking for completely finished or nearly finished homes. Homes requiring an extensive remodel or gut are sitting longer if they are overpriced.
Ultimately the primary home is a quality of life purchase vs. investment, 6% is a bitch compared to the last decade, but if it means no private school and a mini white utopia, folks are still paying.
Miami took a hit in the last recession but it was probably the first to bounce back. When the international money sees its a good deal watch out because they come pouring in from all over. RE investments are long term. To see double digit returns in a normal economy you have to own a property 15-20 years. But these big swings can produce those returns in much less time. When the dust settles pick up what you can and ride it out. IF you can find double digit CAP Rates buy as many as you can.
I’ll also mention the surplus in condos in miami was exuberant in the mid 2000’s. That likely won’t happen this time around as land has ran out to build those massive buildings. And developers were slowing down a bit before the pandemic hit. I have a feeling there will be a much shorter period of finding good deals this time around in a city like Miami. You have to get in a little early and not wait too long once it bottoms out.
There is too many dynamics but unlike the previous crash, most of the financed homes are more solid than the ninja loans in the past.
One of the biggest variables is inventory and how will that increase markedly if people who bought houses at low rates will not want to move, people who bought houses at higher prices don’t want to lose equity, and people who want to downsize can’t because smaller homes cost more than the current one either by price or interest rates.
I don’t think we will see a crash (what is a crash definition? 10% down? 50% down?)… but I know that certain cities in SoCal or way too expensive for starter homes and even a 20% drop will still be overpriced.
