Think of the snails!
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This is a good point I hadnāt thought of - rates have moved so aggressively that it would make a lot of sense in some situations to keep/rent vs selling. Though Iām not sure how restrictive lenders are these days if you canāt float two mortgages independent of the rental income
In my experience, once youāve rented out a home as a business for 6 months, youāre golden as they consider it a small loss or profit depending on your depreciation but do not hold that mortgage against your income.
There indeed will be a lot of people doing the one-off landlord thing. Iāve done it on and off for almost 20 years and it can be a real pain unless you have a good tenent. And those are hard to find, except in the higher end homes.
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Mortgage companies will count about 75% if the projected gross rent as income when qualifying you for a new loan. Iād imagine a lot of people can rent at double their mortgage in this market so wouldnāt be difficult at all. In fact it would help offset their higher borrowing costs more then 100%
Onky issue is the huge learning curve when starting to rent property. All this happened in the last crash as well. But rent vs mortgage payment didnāt have such a disconnect then. So less margin for error.
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As others pointed out, By crash, I donāt mean prices drop a few hundred K unless you live in the middle of nowhere, but more like Texas hot spots where homes were going for above-asking price +50-100k cash. Instead, the market will cool down. Iām in the process of building a 5-6k SQFT house using myself as a general contractor and prices have dramatically gone down per SQFT and are projected to go down even more as demand goes down month by month for the next 6 months at least about 5-10% per month price drop.
An example I would give is this, you find a house in north DFW for 400k, and you go put a bid on it, but someone from Cali came here with 600k cash they got selling their small house and not only outbid you, but also will put 50-100k on top of the deal cash to make the whole thing go through. now this is not only gone but also interest rates are triple what they used to be and will go even higher in the next 3 months.
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Global economy is on a hard downturn, take a look at apple as you see how fucked we all are, if they canāt sell their luxury fashion and sales are down 10-15% across the board then everyone else is doing worse.
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Black Friday was bad, but Christmas will be worse for retailers as people shop even less.
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Income has not kept pace with inflation.
All these combined wonāt bring a 400k house to 200k but could get you that 400k house that was going for a street price of 450-500k now down to 350k.
50-150k in saving on principle can add up on interest and if you are someone with a good amount of cash on hand can end up netting you extra houses.
For example, if you have 1 million cash to play with and have the income to back it, you could get 5 million loans to buy either 11 houses worth 450k each using pandemic prices or almost 15 houses worth 350k each using current/not-so-future prices.
Anyway, Iām not smart, I just parrot what smarter people than me say lol.
Me!
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Be careful these āsmart peopleā you are parroting. Especially motley fool. Lots of generalizations in your statements that are clearly titles from click bait articles.
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You called it a crash, then a cooldown, then described a correction.
The first hand reports of building your home are interesting and useful, the macro assessment not-so-much.
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Bad data analysis. Very obviously doesnāt take into account inflation numbers YOY. Adjusting would paint a different story.
This is a non political opinion. Using the same data reported in the story, I could easily write a headline stating āBlack Friday sales momentum steadily dropping year over year as consumers tighten downā. You can spin any type of web you want with a set of data.
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correct. they will always hit records as the money supply grows, inflation and population increase. But as you pointed out itās actually down. Funny thing about statisticsā¦.
They plant those optomjstic headlines just to make people think all is well. But journalists would never misleadā¦and they canāt be in bed with corporations and the govt to promote propaganduh. That wouldnāt be ethical 
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āBut now, pay laterā surge 85% during Cyber week. Gen Z racking up debt during holiday shopping.
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I canāt decide if itās purposefully misleading, or that the type of person who commonly becomes a journalist has no working knowledge of math, data analysis, scientific methodā¦ etc.
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BRB gotta go find me a CD with 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000% APY
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Black Friday 2022 Retail Sales Decline Compared to Last Year - The NPD Group.
Yeah fuck forbes lol
They had an article today saying elon went from being number one richest to second for few hours and then back to number 1 again, like who in the world gives a fuck about that or needs to track there imaginary stock valuations on hourly bases.
Anyway sales are down.
Inflation will soar come 2023 as said before. As a bread distributor our price for 20 hamburger buns will go from 5.21 to 11.50.
2021 price was 3.99
2022 January was 4.49
2022 June is 5.21
2023 January 11.50
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The last legit politician that understood economics. He predicted all this long ago and it had nothing to do with the cover story of Covid theyāre using.
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1601169798250962945?cxt=HHwWgoCpndfcv7gsAAAA
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āNo oneā could have seen that coming 
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6 million homes sold in 2022. 250k underwater? Sensationalism. Thatās 4% of buyers. Yet those people likely have super low mostgages with their 3% rates. So unless theyāre moving it isnāt really an issue.
Iām bearish as anyone but I just donāt see any significant crash in Real estate yet. At least in places people want to liveā¦
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Iām hoping prices dip so I can buy some rental property.
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