Have you checked with edmunds? Where did you get $4k lease cash and 59% RV? I don’t see any numbers that high recently listed over there. Also seems like 0.72% vs 1.03% is kind of random from the few posts I read over there, so you should be sure 0.72% is correct for your zip and selected trim.
Did the dealer actually say $4k incentive? Because $1500 of that is dealer cash, which would be coming in the form of discount off sale price, not as an incentive, as far as I know. Reducing incentive in your calculator to $2500 brings you pretty much to their quote, so I suspect therein lies the difference.
Seems like an awful deal. Honestly, I’m just diving into the Expedition as I recently added to my considerations set, might be worth a trip to Michigan and ride back - my gut says they’ll play ball aggressively in that area.